Thread by @KomissarWhipla

Somehow people seem to be very much interested in what I have to say about "Russian buildup on Ukrainian border", and future of the Ukrainian crisis.

I am not a real expert, and not an impartial observer, but anyway, a short thread might be useful.

1/

It is a hedging and a message to Kiev and its sponsors that they need to stay calm and behave. There are basically two alternatives:
1) Minsk-II, and people in Moscow seem to be ready to wait for its implementation (even w/ 'addendums' a-la Steinmeier Formula) indefinitely.

2/

2) Declaration of 'withdrawal' from Minsk-II by Kiev, and Ukrainian offensive in Donbass, which will end up in a rather swift destruction of the Ukrainian armed forces (and probably some civilian governmental infrustructure), but no Russian occupation...

3/

...(although some territorial gains by DPR/LPR possible). After that we might see self-destruction of the Ukrainian statehood, not that it will make many people happy anywhere in the region.

I feel there is a serious irritation with lack of progress on MInsk-II and...

4/

...a lack of will from Europeans (especially FR in DE) and the US to force UA to accelerate its implementation. It is a serious document, and while its portrayal as Ukrainian capitulation is not that far from reality (a result of military defeat), it was approved by the UNSC.

5/

Sidenote: I see many people arguing that some of the proposal put forward some scholars deprave Ukraine of 'agency' in the process, but no one seem to care about DPR/LPR agency at all, which is simply wrong.

6/

Also, another alternative: no one in Moscow simply cares about Ukraine at all, and all this actions are a diversion from smth else.

7/

Finally, PL-BY-EU thing...99.9% sure that Moscow has nothing to do with it, apart from general support for Lukashenko as an ally, and BY in general is considered a matter of military security above anything else. But people here are getting extremely irritated with him too.

8/8

PS Despite all controversies, work of the OSCE SMM is crucial. These people are heroes, and operating under pressure and hatred from both sides for such a long time is very impressive.