Thread by @ektrit

This quick explanation of Convexity reminded me of my job as Sales Engineer. I had to converse daily with contractors, design engineers, school administrators, factory workers, purchasing manager, the president, the controller, the bookkeeper etc.

1/

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1462898062263787520

Taleb @nntaleb academically uses the term Convexity, but I have trained myself to find and use the easiest words possible to explain the current situation to many kinds of people.

So, to converse with my twitter friends I found the term Output/hr or Throughput/hr.

2/

@nntaleb If I used the word Convexity here on twitter or with my customers and factory workers, I'd have to spend the extra time and effort of explaining.

And that is why I say Output/hr or Throughput/hr.

3/

@nntaleb So basically, a supply chain has multiple links in multiple directions.

Each Link has a MAXIMUM productive capacity of output/hr or throughput/hr.

If ENOUGH Links break down, the whole chain through multiple directions breaks down in 2nd, 3rd, ....Nth order UNKNOWN effects

4/

@nntaleb My current estimation is that the breakdown of supply chains is so deeply unknown, that it will take 10 years to work out itself.

5/END