Cheap Dollar

I have had his debate non stop since 2013-2014 when I was commenting on Naked Capitalism blog. (Unlike FT Alphaville and Zerohedge which censor commenters, Naked Capitalism doesn't, they are very nice).

1/

https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1814044967196922280

The whole idea of USD as reserve currency is exchanging dollars for real goods and services.

There is no other meaning.

US produces dollars.
The world sends real goods and services to the US.

US in return secures global supply of energy and commodities along with defending supply chains via Military Interventions (popularly known as wars).

That's all. Eisenhower speech is plain and simple.

2/

MY RESEARCH ON INFLATION

I have spent 9 years since 2015 to find out about that 2% inflation target, where it came from.

There is literally 0 literature on it.

It's only the reference from Walter Bagehot in 1863.

Nothing else.

1/ On the other hand, as Paul Volcker said, aiming at 2% inflation annually is strange, why would they reduce purchasing power by 2% annually?

There is something more in there.

2/

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

THREAD

1/

https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1715823433861218732

The previous tweet shows how supply chains functions.

There is no place for AI there, none whatsoever.

But, what is it for?

2/

US DEBT

Again, let me explain US debt again, or any government debt in the local currency.

1/ The State has an Administration which is paid to do work, bureaucracy, police, military, electrical and water grid, hospitals, subsidizing the poor etc.

2/

DEBT CEILING

okay, here's how DC works.

thread

1/

https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/1661017955659051012

We are talking about the largest empire in the history of the world, the United States of America. Such empires don't function on "last minute deals". Everything is decided upon on consensus way in advance.

2/

Silicon Valley Bank - Bail in
........................

Thread

SVB was deep into financing Chinese CCP tech money in USA, hence it was shut down.

1/ This is quite similar to bailing in the Bank of Cyprus in 2013.
Russian money was seized in the same way that Chinese money is seized with SVB bail in.

It's a bail in, not a bail out.

FDIC definition of bail in is using existing money to pay creditors first in line.

2/

ROME AND NEW ROME

Rome is now experiencing what New Rome (Constantinople) has experienced since 1833, creation of the Church of Greece.

There was literally NOTHING else to make a Church identify as Orthodox except for being in communion with New Rome Constantinople.

1/ So, we have all these fakeries like Greek Church, Serb Church, Albanian Church, Bulgarian Church, Russian Church etc which pretend to be preaching Christ, but only by being in communion with New Rome.

New Rome always knew they are faking it, but it had no other option.

2/

Shqiptarët e ish Jugosllavisë janë shqiptarë nga inati i serbëve apo verimaqedonasve, jo se janë shqiptarë shqiptarë dhe kaq.

Kjo ishte fillesa e ndërgjegjes shqiptare, kur shqiptarët refuzuan të greqizoheshin nga perëndimorët kur u formua shteti grek në 1832

1/2 Koncepti i të qenit shqiptar dhe kaq u themelua nga Ahmet Zogu (lavdi) duke adoptuar dhe zbatuar në praktikë Pashko Vasën.

Zogu zgjati vetëm 15 vjet fatkeqësisht. Por Enver Hoxha (lavdi) vazhdoi rrugën e Zogut në ekstrem.

2/3

Thoughts from last night so I don't forget them (that was the point of joining twitter anyway, and still is):

Taleb @nntaleb brilliantly noted at Universa event that this is the age of maximum free speech the world is experiencing in its entire history.

Shockingly true.

2/ I'd expand on that saying that Liberalism in itself is designed via trial and error to have internal enemies in order to remain antifragile.

You can and may be pro Russia and pro China in the West, but you aren't allowed to be pro west in Russia and China.

2/

SUPPLY CHAINS

People, Inflation is always and at anytime a shortage of supply, nothing else.

There is a shortage of supply in the world.

You know why?

Because supply chains have broken down.

1/ Now, what does that mean?

What does it mean that supply chains have broken down?

Well, it means that factories have shut down globally.

What does that mean?
It means that their COSTS of doing business were so high, that they could not make a profit, so they shut down.

2/

CHRISTIAN HISTORY

With the new scholarship work based on new discoveries, we can now safely say:

- Until 4th century UNEDUCATED Christians (99.9% of the people) were still thinking of being a form of Judaism.

1/ - Judaism itself for the UNEDUCATED (99.9% of people) was NOT monotheistic at all. In antiquity the concept of monotheism did not even exist for the UNEDUCATED. Yahwe was THE GOD OF JEWS vs other gods.

2/

Let me explain this again, to El Erian, who has customers he gets paid to advise.

3 words

PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION

1/

zerohedge.com/markets/el-eri… The argument now is that 6-7% rates will "crash the economy".

That is UNTRUE as far as Production.

That is TRUE as far as the INSOLVENT OWNERS OF SUPPLY CHAINS who gambled their companies as collateral in shadow banking WILL CRASH.

2/

Supply chains and Marriage

Through the perspective of supply chains, Church taking control of marriage and family makes sense entirely.

Also, Prophet Muhammad was a genius.

Patriarchy makes sense entirely, and it was to defend ....women.

1/ Prophet Muhammad saying up to 4 wives was due to excess women because of wars when men would spend time and/or die. Excess Women would end up as slaves or prostitutes or die of hunger.

Constituting marriage with up to 4 wives solved that societal and supply chain problem.

2/

Finance

Folks, folks, folks.
Finance is just Law, nothing else.

You need cash flow to prosper, meaning you need real output to prosper.

Cash flow = Real Ouput

In Soviet Union anybody had a home. In Greece anybody owns a home. In Romania, Albania, the same.

1/2 But, Soviet union, Greece now, Romania and Albania have little real output, hence little cash flow.

Greeks understood that in 2012 Greek financial crisis. They had homes, but they had no cash flow.

Folks, homes are not edible, neither can be used as fuel.

2/3

KROACIA - KATOLIKËT SHQIPTARË

Presidenti jugosllavo-katolik, që tani quhet Kroaci, tha që Kosova i përkiste Serbisë, por nuk i përket më tani. Ai vazhdon ta mbështesë atë që tha.

Kjo është prova e dytë që katolicizmi modern është një qelbësirë anti shqiptare.

1/ Është e qartë që islami modern dhe ortodoksia moderne janë qelbësira anti shqiptare, por shqiptarët që gjithmonë kanë shikuar nga Vatikani që të na mbështesë si perëndimorë, jo si turq myslimanë, tani ta kenë të qartë.

2/

INTEREST RATES

From Volcker to Powell:

Powell will hike rates to 10%, but he doesn't know it yet.

Why?

Because this is a trial and error process.

Volcker didn't know either that he would be raising rates to 20%.

1/ Volcker was faced with one problem and one problem only:

PRODUCTION

DC and Volcker LEARNED by trial and error process over Time and Space that they had to hike rates to 20% in order to expand PRODUCTION.

2/

INTEREST RATES BOOST PRODUCTION

tradingeconomics.com/united-states/…

Look at the graph of US interest rates.

Can you spot the most prosperous and productive period of history since the 70s?

1/ The most productive period in US history post WW2 was when rates were 20%, US kept thriving when rates were kept above 5%.

But why?

Why do high rates spur production?

2/

ASSET PRICES

The media focus is still on ASSET PRICES.

Folks, asset prices no longer matter.

The only things that matter now are 3:

PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION

Asset prices are now irrelevant.

1/ Stocks, Bonds, Housing prices, NOBODY CARES, nobody.

I remember speaking with DC insiders in 2015-2018, asking them about concern on supply chains.

Their reply was: NONE. They trust the Bankers.

2/

FROM USD TO BARTER

I am saying that the world is trying to replace USD with BARTER.

This is self evident. They are declaring it, everybody is declaring it.

1/ Am I saying that they will succeed at the very end?

NO, THEY WILL FAIL.

What I am saying that SAYING AND TRYING is more than enough to break supply chains, which is happening.

2/

COMMODITY BOOM

Folks, let me explain something to you.

First, thanks to @nntaleb , after reading Incerto, I have forced myself to think always in a NON linear way.

PLEASE, STOP THINKING IN A LINEAR WAY.

1/ So, what does commodity boom mean?

It means that commodity prices shoot high, too high. That sounds good if you think in a linear way.

Now, let's think how it works in reality, NON LINEAR.

2/

JEROME POWELL

Le me reiterate this again.

DC functions via Consensus.
DC functions via Consensus.
DC functions via Consensus.

Let me repeat:

DC functions via Consensus.

1/ Jerome Powell does absolutely NOT make any unilateral decisions about Interest Rates.

Powell EXECUTES the Consensus.
Powell EXECUTES the Consensus.
Powell EXECUTES the Consensus.

2/