Currently in Santiago 🇨🇱

87% of Chileans are fully vaccinated.

Almost everyone is wearing a mask.

Even outdoors.
Just stating an observation here, coming from the US where masks and vaccines have been such a polarizing topic.
Also, interesting to see the different quarantine procedures of different countries.

US is incredibly, incredibly relaxed compared to other countries.
Grand Cayman: Need a negative PCR to enter; with the vaxx you still need to get tested every couple of days.

Chile: With vaxx; need a negative PCR to enter; proof you have medical insurance to cover COVID; PCR taken at the airport; daily self-reporting.

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More from @choffstein

28 Oct
🦑 My most cynical thoughts on crypto are summed up by the @SquidDao strucutre.

🙋‍♂️ buys $ETH from 🙋‍♀️ for 💵
🙋‍♂️ puts $ETH in Treasury 🏦
Treasury 🏦 backs $SQUID


@SquidDao Without some sort of consumption mechanism, tie to fundamental value, or fiat escape valve, we basically end up with a huge amount of trapped capital.
@SquidDao Hence why it seems like a big money ball running around and you end up with “liquidity vacuums” hurting the rest of the ecosystem.

Read 6 tweets
27 Oct
Over time, I've developed a few foundational mental frameworks with respect to investing.

These aren't pithy philosophies nor are they about trade ideas.

Rather, they are concepts that have helped me re-frame my thinking, develop better intuition, and make better decisions.
I want to share two that I wish I internalized earlier in my career.

Over time, I'd like to add to this list, but I'd also welcome others to share their own.

Every portfolio, and every portfolio decision, can be decomposed into being long something and being short something else.

Sounds trivial. But it's a powerful framework.
Read 20 tweets
10 Oct
Saw the new Bond last night.

Amazing how different this Craig's Bond was from predecessors.

Less gadgets and more grit. A lot more introspection about his own life and role in the world.

And a “through line” to the whole series.
That said, I think the “Bond lifestyle” would have far less appeal if they showed the mundane parts.

Like, imagine how much time he spends packing. And schlepping a tuxedo everywhere? How much time does this man spend at a tailor? Or ironing his shirts? Just getting ready!
Also, he goes to crowded clubs and bars and yet he always gets served immediately.
Read 5 tweets
4 Oct
1/ Why the bond bull market had almost nothing to do with declining interest rates

(and why you shouldn't 😴 on roll yield or leverage)

A (long) 🧵...

(I wrote about this back in 2017 too:…)
2/ It's often repeated that declining interest rates over the last 40 years created a bull market in bonds that is unlikely to ever be repeated again.

I do not believe the facts actually support that narrative.
3/ Let's start with a very simple graph: the price return versus the total return of the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBMFX)
Read 26 tweets
28 Sep
A little disappointed I haven’t seen more people commenting on @HariPKrishnan2’s Market Tremors.

I’m about 125 pages in and really enjoying it.
@HariPKrishnan2 If questions like, “how does the flow-performance curve of bond mutual funds differ from equity funds and what are the implications for ETF pricing in a crisis,” interest you,

then this book is for you.
@HariPKrishnan2 P.S. I still think there’s “alpha” in holding bond mutual funds, and then selling them in a crisis to buy bond ETFs trading at a significant discount.

cc @EconomPic @millerak42
Read 5 tweets
27 Sep
1/ Interesting new ETF from @SimplifyETFs got seeded today.

$TYA – 
Simplify Risk Parity Treasury ETF

Ignore the name; it should basically be 2.5x 10-year U.S. Treasury futures.

I see two immediate uses.…
@SimplifyETFs 2/ The first is an outright replacement from long-dated Treasury exposure (e.g. $TLT or $ZROZ).

You should get approximately the same duration, but harvest a much more attractive roll yield over time by sitting in the belly of the curve.
@SimplifyETFs 3/ The second is capital efficiency.

Replace a 10% position in intermediate-term U.S. Treasuries (e.g. $IEF or $VGIT) and replace it with 4% of $TYA.

You get the same net exposure, but now you can enjoy the newfound flexibility of liquidity of your freed up capital (6%).
Read 5 tweets

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