Currently in Santiago 🇨🇱

87% of Chileans are fully vaccinated.

Almost everyone is wearing a mask.

Even outdoors.
Just stating an observation here, coming from the US where masks and vaccines have been such a polarizing topic.
Also, interesting to see the different quarantine procedures of different countries.

US is incredibly, incredibly relaxed compared to other countries.
Grand Cayman: Need a negative PCR to enter; with the vaxx you still need to get tested every couple of days.

Chile: With vaxx; need a negative PCR to enter; proof you have medical insurance to cover COVID; PCR taken at the airport; daily self-reporting.

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More from @choffstein

28 Oct
🦑 My most cynical thoughts on crypto are summed up by the @SquidDao strucutre.

🙋‍♂️ buys $ETH from 🙋‍♀️ for 💵
🙋‍♂️ puts $ETH in Treasury 🏦
Treasury 🏦 backs $SQUID

(Continued…)

@SquidDao Without some sort of consumption mechanism, tie to fundamental value, or fiat escape valve, we basically end up with a huge amount of trapped capital.
@SquidDao Hence why it seems like a big money ball running around and you end up with “liquidity vacuums” hurting the rest of the ecosystem.

Read 6 tweets
27 Oct
Over time, I've developed a few foundational mental frameworks with respect to investing.

These aren't pithy philosophies nor are they about trade ideas.

Rather, they are concepts that have helped me re-frame my thinking, develop better intuition, and make better decisions.
I want to share two that I wish I internalized earlier in my career.

Over time, I'd like to add to this list, but I'd also welcome others to share their own.
1️⃣ "IT'S LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIOS ALL THE WAY DOWN."

Every portfolio, and every portfolio decision, can be decomposed into being long something and being short something else.

Sounds trivial. But it's a powerful framework.
Read 20 tweets
10 Oct
Saw the new Bond last night.

Amazing how different this Craig's Bond was from predecessors.

Less gadgets and more grit. A lot more introspection about his own life and role in the world.

And a “through line” to the whole series.
That said, I think the “Bond lifestyle” would have far less appeal if they showed the mundane parts.

Like, imagine how much time he spends packing. And schlepping a tuxedo everywhere? How much time does this man spend at a tailor? Or ironing his shirts? Just getting ready!
Also, he goes to crowded clubs and bars and yet he always gets served immediately.
Read 5 tweets
4 Oct
1/ Why the bond bull market had almost nothing to do with declining interest rates

(and why you shouldn't 😴 on roll yield or leverage)

A (long) 🧵...

(I wrote about this back in 2017 too: blog.thinknewfound.com/2017/04/declin…)
2/ It's often repeated that declining interest rates over the last 40 years created a bull market in bonds that is unlikely to ever be repeated again.

I do not believe the facts actually support that narrative.
3/ Let's start with a very simple graph: the price return versus the total return of the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBMFX)
Read 26 tweets
28 Sep
A little disappointed I haven’t seen more people commenting on @HariPKrishnan2’s Market Tremors.

I’m about 125 pages in and really enjoying it.

amazon.com/dp/3030792528/
@HariPKrishnan2 If questions like, “how does the flow-performance curve of bond mutual funds differ from equity funds and what are the implications for ETF pricing in a crisis,” interest you,

then this book is for you.
@HariPKrishnan2 P.S. I still think there’s “alpha” in holding bond mutual funds, and then selling them in a crisis to buy bond ETFs trading at a significant discount.

cc @EconomPic @millerak42
Read 5 tweets
27 Sep
1/ Interesting new ETF from @SimplifyETFs got seeded today.

$TYA – 
Simplify Risk Parity Treasury ETF

Ignore the name; it should basically be 2.5x 10-year U.S. Treasury futures.

I see two immediate uses.

simplify.us/etfs/tya-simpl…
@SimplifyETFs 2/ The first is an outright replacement from long-dated Treasury exposure (e.g. $TLT or $ZROZ).

You should get approximately the same duration, but harvest a much more attractive roll yield over time by sitting in the belly of the curve.
@SimplifyETFs 3/ The second is capital efficiency.

Replace a 10% position in intermediate-term U.S. Treasuries (e.g. $IEF or $VGIT) and replace it with 4% of $TYA.

You get the same net exposure, but now you can enjoy the newfound flexibility of liquidity of your freed up capital (6%).
Read 5 tweets

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