1/ Interesting new ETF from @SimplifyETFs got seeded today.

$TYA – 
Simplify Risk Parity Treasury ETF

Ignore the name; it should basically be 2.5x 10-year U.S. Treasury futures.

I see two immediate uses.

simplify.us/etfs/tya-simpl…
@SimplifyETFs 2/ The first is an outright replacement from long-dated Treasury exposure (e.g. $TLT or $ZROZ).

You should get approximately the same duration, but harvest a much more attractive roll yield over time by sitting in the belly of the curve.
@SimplifyETFs 3/ The second is capital efficiency.

Replace a 10% position in intermediate-term U.S. Treasuries (e.g. $IEF or $VGIT) and replace it with 4% of $TYA.

You get the same net exposure, but now you can enjoy the newfound flexibility of liquidity of your freed up capital (6%).
@SimplifyETFs 4/ I also wonder if a tool like this is useful to small pensions who want to hedge their liabilities but don’t want to run a futures program.

Instead of liability matching with bonds, they can use a smaller allocation to this ETF and free up capital for risky asset exposure.
@SimplifyETFs cc @EconomPic Not quite $NTSX, but seems like it opens up a lot of room for capital efficiency

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More from @choffstein

21 Sep
1/ Guess what?

It's time for another thread on everyone's (just me?) favorite subject: rebalance timing luck!

This time, with options.
2/ All the hard work here was done by @sbraun27, who is a brilliant analyst and you should follow him.
3/ For the uninitiated, "rebalancing timing luck" is performance differential that occurs due simply to *when* scheduled rebalances occur.

I won't go into it more than that. Google the term. I've written a nauseating amount about it.
Read 11 tweets
14 Sep
1/ What is "return stacking" and how is it different than stretching for returns?

(From our paper investresolve.com/return-stackin…)

A quick 🧵... (I know, I know...)
2/ The expectation of low real returns going forward puts a significant burden on long-term investors striving to meet future needs.

e.g. Endowments who are making annual withdrawals, pensions that have future liabilities, and individuals who are saving for retirement.
3/ A phenomenon that we've witnessed over the last decade is investors moving up the risk curve by either (1) increasing equity exposure, (2) increasing credit risk (lower quality bonds), or (3) increasing liquidity risk (e.g. real estate, private equity or private credit).
Read 19 tweets
9 Sep
0️⃣ I've received a couple questions about this paper and tax implications of this approach.

I'm not an accountant, but I think there are three main points to consider about tax efficiency and return stacking.

1️⃣ Some funds achieve capital efficiency in a tax efficient manner, and some do not.

e.g. $PSLDX buys bonds and overlays with S&P 500 futures. That's very tax inefficient, since those S&P 500 futures are taxed at a 60% long-term / 40% short-term rate.
NTSX, on the other hand, buys the S&P 500 and then overlays with U.S. Treasury futures. Those futures are also taxed at the 60/40 rate, which *can* be more tax advantageous than buy-and-hold bond exposure, where the majority of the return (yield) gets taxed at ordinary income.
Read 8 tweets
2 Sep
@John_Stepek My ultra skeptical answer:

I put $1 in $USDC.
You start a new project $COIN.
I buy 1 $COIN for 1 $USDC.
Someone else starts $TOKEN.
I buy 1 $TOKEN for 1 $COIN.

How much money is in crypto?
@John_Stepek So you’ve got a massive ball of “money” that bubbles up, but can’t ever really be removed. So it just rips around the space.

It’s L1 tokens one month, DeFi the next, NFTs the next...
@John_Stepek So unless (1) people can start to borrow fiat against their crypto / NFTs, (2) people try to move crypto into fiat en masse, or (3) businesses accept crypto as payment, I think you just get this risk of inflated bubble money.
Read 4 tweets
13 Aug
the jpegs look rare

1/ Some interesting threads and resources as it relates to NFTs...

"What could possibly be important about a JPG, a silly meme?"

2/ "Why did I spend $7MM on 104 floor punks?"

Read 10 tweets
10 Aug
@vixologist @AttainCap2 @GestaltU I interpret 🍋’s point as: forest fires clear out underbrush that cause forest fires.

I interpret @GestaltU’s point as reflexive: if everyone prepares for the last crash, then it’s almost impossible for a crash like it to occur!
@vixologist @AttainCap2 @GestaltU I don’t disagree with either of those points. Adam’s point is one of the reasons that many on here – myself included – were saying that it would be hard to see a post-election crash last November.
@vixologist @AttainCap2 @GestaltU I still think a lot of the same dynamics permeate the system (namely, excessive risk taken driven by low interest rates; adoption of systematic strategies; influence of options on underlying) – but the build up of risk that 🍋 alludes to may be gone for some time.
Read 4 tweets

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