Thread by @lewis_goodall

Thoughts on reaction to this so far (on both sides of the Channel)

Lots of talk of shock and horror tonight but this was predicted and predictable. Just last week an aid agency told me concern was without change the Channel could become a graveyard- it happened.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1463106096336363521

Both British and French politicians have talked about clamping down on the people smugglers. No-one would disagree with that, they’re a menace with indifference to human life. But the constant talk of pull factors doesn’t account for the really (more) important push factors.

We can’t know for sure how many in the camps are refugees but we know it’s many, some believe most. Many I spoke to yesterday talked of persecution in their home countries, imprisonment or worse. They feel they have nothing to lose. In those circumstances by definition you’re...

...never going to make it less appealing for them to try and come than it is for them to stay. So you can argue that focusing on pull factors alone really won’t make much difference. Something has to improve at source. It’s also true to say that in a global refugee crisis...

...which numbers some 80 million+ people it really isn’t surprising relatively negligible number would end up on the UK’s shores. In those circumstances if you wanted to guarantee a reduction in unsafe crossings at least one part of the policy

... toolkit here would be to create safer ways for asylum seekers to come to the UK... which they are legally entitled to do (there is no legal obligation to claim asylum in the first “safe” country you come to.

This is complicated with no easy answers...

... but I’ve no doubt on the basis of the conversations I’ve had at the camps that today’s events will deter few.

We’ll be discussing all of this and more on tonight’s special programme, live from Dover. Tune in. BBC 2.