Jim Bianco Profile picture
Nov 25, 2021 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/7

A thread about the latest with COVID.

Europe' case counts hit a new all-time, as did Germany.

Lockdowns, restrictions, and protests (sometimes violent) are everywhere in Europe.
2/7

The world hit a new 10 week high yesterday, and cases are going vertical (orange) line.
3/7

And the US is now moving up, no mistake about it (orange line in the last few weeks).

And, as we have noted before, whenever cases spike in one area, they eventually spike in other area.
4/7

Europe is spiking now even though they have higher vaccine rates than the US
5/7

Michigan has the highest case count in the US.

In fact it is making a new all-time high in cases per 100,000.
6/7

Why bring up Michigan?

Because in 1-hour the Detroit Lions play the Chicago Bears in front of 65,000 maskless screaming fans in DOME STADIUM (read: indoor) Ford Field in Detroit.

Remember a year ago, when case counts were LOWER, they had to play this game with no fans.
7/7

Oh ... and in 48 hours #6 Michigan plays #2 Ohio State in "The Big House" in Ann Arbor. So another 110,000+ maskless fans screaming in the state with the highest case count in the country, and higher than last year's lockdowns.

Are we still following the science???

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More from @biancoresearch

Mar 11
1/6

Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war.

The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of Hormuz be reopened? Is the Administration pivoting to that mission?

Every day without a visible path to reopening, the market will price in more risk.

x.com/MikeSchuler/st…

@johnkonrad @mercoglianos
2/6

The problem: the Administration APPEARS to not be taking the Strait threat seriously. The contradiction is stark:

- Trump to tanker captains: "These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts, there's nothing to be afraid of..."

- The U.S. Navy, citing risk of attacks as "too high," says it is unable to provide escorts — despite near-daily requests from the shipping industry.

WTF!

x.com/foxandfriends/…
x.com/FreightWaves/s…
3/6

Yesterday, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine was asked about naval escorts in the Strait. His answer:

"If tasked to escort, we'll look at the range of options to set military conditions to be able to do that..."

Did he just admit they don't have a plan — and haven't started one?

Read 6 tweets
Mar 9
1/5

A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said.

So, what price measures "persists for a year?"

🧵
2/5

As the table below shows, crude oil futures prices for delivery into 2027 are trading in extreme backwardation. Image
3/5

Below is the calendar spread between the first contract (now April) and the 6th contract (now September).

As the bottom panel shows, this spread is -25%, a record since the mid-1990s when the contract specifications were last changed. Image
Read 5 tweets
Feb 7
1/4

I fear this is spot on.

@CryptoNobler's thread unpacks $BTC's "synthetic supply" problem. ETFs, structured notes (@CryptoHayes), futures, options, swaps, lending—all flood the system with "paper" BTC.

When it swamps real demand, price crashes.

x.com/CryptoNobler/s… x.com/coinbureau/sta…
2/4

@CryptoHayes: structured notes on $IBIT flooded $BTC with synthetic supply → forced liquidations turbocharged the dump.

Next rally? TradFi piles into ETFs → Wall Street "prints" more synthetics.

Price discovery decoupled from on-chain.

Volatility on steroids
3/4

Wall Street's entry turned BTC into a pseudo-fractional reserve system.

21M cap? On-chain only—price discovery swims in synthetic street "printing."

Fractional is inherently unstable. That's why banks need heavy regs (Fed/Treasury/OCC/FDIC).

On-chain BTC only needs code.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 1
1/6

10% of the outstanding $BTC is held by $MSTR and the 11 Spot BTC ETFs.

These are the ways normies hold $BTC in regulated brokerage accounts.

Collectively, the avg purchase price is $85.36K, meaning the average is now ~$8k underwater, with an unrealized loss of ~$7B.
🧵 Image
2/6

The 11 biggest spot $BTC ETFs now hold 1.29M $BTC – worth over $115B (Friday PM).

These ETFs hold roughly 6.5% of all $BTC in circulation.

The 3 largest – iShares’ $IBIT (blue), Fidelity’s $FBTC (red), and Grayscale’s $GBTC (orange) – hold 5.65%. Image
3/6

The 11 Spot $BTC ETFs average purchase price is ~$90.2K (blue), about $13K (16%) above the current price (bottom panel).

Note these ETFs are collectively on a record 10 consecutive outflow days. $BTC is down ~8% since Friday's NYSE close. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 19
1/11

What is Housing?

Affordable shelter or path to retirement?

It cannot be both.

We tried to make it both in the early 2000s and almost wrecked the financial system.

🧵 Image
2/11

The average home price is $417K (above), an all-time high.

This means around 43% of a median household income (~$84K) goes to housing.

For the last three years, this has been comparable to the (unsustainable) housing peak in 2006. Image
3/11

For 50 years, from the end of World War II through 1997 (red box), housing was affordable. Prices rose by the inflation rate.

In other words, it held its value but remained within reach of most renters/first-time homebuyers. Image
Read 11 tweets
Jan 4
1/5

Thoughts on market reaction to the Venezuela news.

tl:dr

The spigot in Venezuela waiting to be opened to flood the world with crude oil and lower its price has been broken for a while.

It will take several years to fix it.
2/5

Venezuela is a founding member of OPEC their official statistics show its production (blue) is down 71% from its 1998 peak.

Its sustainable capacity (max output in within 90 days and held for a year) is 1M barrels/day (orange).

Venezuela is at its maximum now. Image
3/5

Why the big production decline?

Socialist Hugo Chávez was elected in December 1998. He turned out to be a brutal dictator. Only to be replaced by an even more brutal dictator, Nicolás Maduro, when Chávez died in March 2013.
Read 5 tweets

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