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Jim Bianco Profile picture
@biancoresearch
Nov 25, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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1/7
A thread about the latest with COVID.

Europe' case counts hit a new all-time, as did Germany.

Lockdowns, restrictions, and protests (sometimes violent) are everywhere in Europe.
2/7
The world hit a new 10 week high yesterday, and cases are going vertical (orange) line.
3/7
And the US is now moving up, no mistake about it (orange line in the last few weeks).

And, as we have noted before, whenever cases spike in one area, they eventually spike in other area.
4/7
Europe is spiking now even though they have higher vaccine rates than the US
5/7
Michigan has the highest case count in the US.

In fact it is making a new all-time high in cases per 100,000.
6/7
Why bring up Michigan?

Because in 1-hour the Detroit Lions play the Chicago Bears in front of 65,000 maskless screaming fans in DOME STADIUM (read: indoor) Ford Field in Detroit.

Remember a year ago, when case counts were LOWER, they had to play this game with no fans.
7/7
Oh ... and in 48 hours #6 Michigan plays #2 Ohio State in "The Big House" in Ann Arbor. So another 110,000+ maskless fans screaming in the state with the highest case count in the country, and higher than last year's lockdowns.

Are we still following the science???

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jul 5
1/9
Since the 10 Spot ETFs started trading on January 11, they have collectively generated $14.6 billion in net new money. They peaked near $16 billion last month.

Collectively, these ETFs are the most successful ETF launches in history.

The problem might be they are successful for ETF providers but maybe not as much for BTC holders.

A 🧵to explain.Image
2/9
As I noted last month, most of this "new" ETF money was on-chain coins moved to regulated brokerage accounts that bought the BTC ETFs.

Of the peak inflows near $16 billion into BTC ETFs, only ~$3 billion was really "new" money into the BTC ecosystem.

3/9
The lack of a rally showed that the "new" money in the entire BTC ecosystem was small (~$3 billion). Despite all the bullish talk and "here come the boomers" proclamations, BTC peaked in March at $74k.

The BTC bulls were correct that near $16 billion of "new" money into the ecosystem should have pushed BTC to >$100k. However, it was not near $16 billion as most ETF flows came from on-chain accounts and not new fiat entering for the first time.

Further supporting this are the fears surrounding Mt. Gox liquidations. A total of $7.6 billion of BTC (140k BTC) is getting transferred. If $7.6 billion is hitting the price this much, and only a small portion will be liquidated for fiat, then near $16 billion of new BTC ETF money, if this was the case, should have skyrocketed the BTC price.

It did not happen.

forbes.com/sites/siladity…
Read 9 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jun 30
1/3
Breaking news Saturday night ... just as Biden arrives at the Hamptons fundraiser.

----

President Joe Biden is expected to discuss the future of his re-election campaign with family at Camp David on Sunday, following a nationally televised debate Thursday that left many fellow Democrats worried about his ability to beat former President Donald Trump in November, according to five people familiar with the matter.

nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…
2/3
Betting market reaction to this news ....

Notice who moved ahead of Gavin Newsom into second place for the Democrat nomination. Image
3/3
The last time Harris was ahead of Newsom for the Democrat Nomination ....

July 2022!! Image
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jun 18
1/4
Last week, BlackRock Admitted:

For now, about 80% of bitcoin ETF purchases have likely been coming from “self-directed investors who have made their own allocation, often through an online brokerage account."

cnbc.com/2024/06/16/adv…
2/4
The following chart shows that the average size of a Spot BTC ETF trade (blue) is just $14.6k, far less than any other ETFs that are very popular with Tradfi ... and about one-tenth the size of a SPY trade.

This is exactly what you'd expect if they buyer is retail Degens. Image
3/4
In other words, the chart above is consistent with BlackRock's statement that Tradfi is largely not playing. This blue line will go up when they start to play, which they are not doing now.

For now, the Spot BTC ETF buyer is a retail Degen, and as explained below, most of them came from on-chain accounts to a regulated brokerage account.

Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jun 14
1/8
Consumer Confidence came out today and contained a message for everyone interested in markets and the economy.

tl:dr - Consumer confidence came in much worse than expected. Driving this was Democrats turning sour on the economy. Behind this seems to be a big worry they are going to lose the election this fall.

Since so much of economic data is opinion surveys, like consumer confidence, economists will look at this data and conclude that it means the economy is worsening, not that these surveys are really political, not economic, opinions.

----

The University of Michigan put out its June estimate for Consumer Sentiment. It declined to 65.6, the lowest reading of 2024.Image
2/8
Bloomberg surveyed 50 economists, and they predicted Consumer Sentiment would rise from May's 69.1 to 72 in June. Instead, as shown above, it fell to 65.6.

Only one of the 50 economists had it this low. So, a big surprise. Image
3/8
What drove this downside surprise?

Here is a breakdown of consumer sentiment by (self-identified) political party.

You can see how partisanship drives one's outlook on the economy. What matters is your political identification and which party controls the White House, not an objective assessment of the economy.

Not that Democrat sentiment (blue) in June fell almost 7 points whereas Republican sentiment (red) fell less than 0.5 of a point.Image
Read 8 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jun 12
1/5
What I'm looking for at the FOMC meeting today.

tl:dr - The long-term dot or their estimate of the neutral funds rate.
---
This FOMC releases a new Dot Plot every quarter (M/J/S/D). Here is March.

Every dot is an FOMC participant forecast. The orange line is the median.

The Street's focus is the 2024 dots. The median (red line) was for 3 cuts. Will that come down to 1 or 2?Image
2/5
Instead, I'm looking at the long-term dot. As noted above, it is 2.56%

Here are all the long-term dots back to 2018. It was steady at 2.50% until a slight increase at the March meeting to 2.56%.

It has not moved for years, so it has been forgotten. But it might be ready to move now, and that matters.Image
3/5
The long-term dot is the Fed projection for the neutral rate, or R*.

The Fed has consistently maintained that the long-run inflation is 2%, and they augment this by 0.5% to reach 2.5% (again R*).

There has been much talk that the neutral fund rate has moved higher. If the long-run inflation is now 3% to 4% (chart), and given the uncertainty, it should push the 0.5% to 1.0%, this puts the neural fund's rate between 4% and 5%. Many are making this argument; I am, too.

I do not expect the Fed to jump all the way to 4% today, but do we see upward movement in the neutral funds today? The start of a trend?Image
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jun 5
1/4
Lots of talk about an economic slowdown, but what exactly is slowing down?

tl:dr, surveys of opinions, not actual or "hard" data.
---
Start with the Bloomberg Surprise Index. It is an index of economic releases measured against the consensus forecast for each release.

How to read it?

A number above zero means the economic data is coming in above expectations, and a number below zero means worse than expectations. The trend matters as it shows whether things are improving or deteriorating (again relative to expectations).

What does it say?

The economy has turned sharply lower (steep downtrend) and, since the beginning of April, coming in much worse than forecasted (below zero).

Sound ominous. However ....Image
2/4
The chart above can be broken into two broad categories, shown below:

* Hard data (blue), which are actual measures of economic performance. Think retail sales, durable goods, auto sales (number of cars sold), international trade, etc.

* Soft data (orange) that measures surveys of how various economic actors think the economy is doing. Think consumer confidence, the Institute of Supply Management report of manufacturing (it is a survey of purchasing managers' opinions, not an actual measure of activity), the regional Fed Reserve surveys of activity, and the Conference Board Index of Leading Economic Indicators.

What does it say?

The soft data (orange) is falling apart fast and well below zero. This is the so-called "vibecession." People feel lousy about the economy.

But the hard data (blue), in this case, the measures of the labor market, are holding up reasonably well. This measure is still above zero and generally moves sideways in the better-than-expected range.Image
3/4
Like the hard data measure of labor above, below are the hard data measures of retail activity (green) and the Household (green).

The are also above zero and not meaningfully trending lower. Image
Read 4 tweets

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