Looking at the @GISAID database, it looks like in the first five days of identifying B.1.1.529 in South Africa the number of samples was 13 (Nov 11-15) and in the last five days (Nov 18-22) it was 39.... early and preliminary data suggests cases may be growing by 3x weekly.
For context, Delta was doubling weekly... but this was with greater numbers. It's still super early to accurately assess B.1.1.529 but the early data is concerning.
No recent upward trajectory in Botswana, where the variant was first sequenced, may be a good sign... again, super early... things will be more clear in the next weeks.
Yep, and here we go, the growth rate of Nu (B.1.1.529) genomic sequencing samples is coinciding with community transmission growth at 3x weekly.
If this holds steady, this means that Nu would be 50% more transmissible than Delta, which means it’s between 6-7.5 times more than transmissible than the wild-type… putting the Rt at roughly between 12-14. The combo of increased transmissibility and immune escape is dangerous.
It’s early, take it with a grain of salt. But helpful to put things into context what this new variant could mean for the world.

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More from @joaquinlife

24 Aug
We are continuing to make resources from our program on school reopenings and airborne transmission more accessible to empower more people to make schools and communities safer. @kprather88 @TheAngryEpi @DataDrivenMD @SpeakUpAmerica_ #DeltaSchoolsAirborne gospeakupamerica.com/deltaschools ImageImageImage
.@kprather88 and @denise_dewald on reducing the risk of airborne transmission in schools and whether the U.S. hospital system can absorb a Delta surge of COVID. #DeltaSchoolsAirborne @SpeakUpAmerica_

.@linseymarr on masks for kids and the importance of better masks during Delta, how masks filter, and criteria to prioritize when buying a mask (comfort, fit, filtration).

#DeltaSchoolsAirborne @SpeakUpAmerica_
Read 11 tweets
18 Mar 20
We should be very clear about face masks, they help everyone prevent the spread of #coronavirus. It's unfortunate the original message was that it doesn't prevent you from getting it because if everyone wore a mask, it would reduced the spread of it.
So if you're going to the grocery store, the doctors, or even if you share space with others, everyone doing this would have a significant impact. I'm specifically talking about the regular masks which there are plenty of, not the masks designated for healthcare workers.
Why is this the case? Because the main form of transmission is through aerosols (those things that look like dust when you see light shine through a window), and when people are around each other they exchange the aerosol that is in the air, and thus transmit coronavirus.
Read 4 tweets
12 Oct 18
Over the last 10 years, I spent the first half working to make a difference through politics and the last half through technology. I’m excited to share the convergence of the two through Speak Up America. 🙌🏼🇺🇸 (Video and link in tweet below)
Speak Up America is an Alexa skill that connects you straight to your congressperson without the need of looking them up, finding contact info, or dialing — Speak Up America connects your phone straight to them. Download available: amazon.com/dp/B07J2HT7Q2/
The goal is to create the easiest way for you to become civically engaged and to make your voice heard. Please share with your friends! Looking forward to feedback and, if you have a moment, would appreciate your review on Amazon to help get the word out for Speak Up America.
Read 12 tweets

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