Thread by @yaneerbaryam

Update on the new B.1.1.529 variant spreading rapidly in South Africa.

Cases are increasing nationally with R=1.47 after recent decline. Cases are not growing everywhere. They are growing particularly in Gauteng.

1/

Gauteng is a small province containing Johanesburg, the largest city in South Africa. The Test positivity has been at about 1% and is still at 1% in much of the province, but one area, Tshwane, has part with positivity at 30%.

This increase happened within two weeks.

2/

The estimated R value of the local increase is 1.93, significantly larger than the national value (1.47).

3/

The genetic analysis of the new variant (from over 100 genomes) shows that it has 30 mutations in the spike protein.

In the receptor binding area
Beta had 3,
Delta had 2,
B.1.1.529 has 10, just in the receptor binding domain.

4/

Analysis of the mutations:

Resistance to current antibodies due to multiple mutations in the spike protein.

Enhanced transmissibility

Evasion of immunity

Increased infectivity

5/

Compare rate of increase compared to previous variant of Beta (green), Delta (red), B.1.1.529 (blue)!!

6/

Using a PCR signature of the new variant they can see the rapid increase in multiple provinces.

Circled plot (third down on the left) is Gauteng. Other provinces showing the same rapid increase can be seen in the other plots.

Content and figures from the presentation by Prof. Tulio de Oliveria