NU VARIANT (B.1.1.529) in South Africa & why unlikely to evade vaccine-induced immunity. So, what is this variant? Number 1, we don't know yet if it is more transmissible. Still being studied & described. 59 cases uploaded to database thenationalnews.com/coronavirus/20…
Okay, so what is a "variant" mean for COVID? Means mutations in spike protein that attaches the virus to the host cell: mutations that differ from the "ancestral strain". This is the bit of the virus that tends to mutate most (like H and N surface proteins of influenza). Also,
of the 8 vaccines approved by the WHO (Novavax will be added soon & will make the 9th), 6 of those 9 involve the spike protein in some way (either code for it with mRNA, DNA; Novavax is protein itself); 3 of the 9 are whole inactivated virions (Covaxin, Sinopharm, Sinovac)
The other major variants of concern (alpha, beta, gamma, delta) have 11-13 mutations across the spike protein, this B.1.1.529 one (which may be named nu) has 30 so more mutations than previous. However, the spike protein vaccines produce in-breadth T cells & polyclonal antibodies
Natural immunity & the whole inactivated viral vaccines like Covaxin allow immune system to see entire virus but spike protein vaccines also produce a complicated antibody response (called "polyclonal", not just along one spot) AND B/T cell responses. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
We have already discussed cellular immunity & how we know the vaccines produce B cells in germinal centers (proven by taking biopsies of lymph nodes). This paper posted shows us these B cells produce different antibodies including one called the "public" 2C08 antibody which
targets the end of the spike protein and where it binds to the host cell (called the receptor binding protein) and blocks infection by circulating SARS-CoV-2 and emerging variants of concern (because they will emerge without #globalvaxequity) both in vitro and in vivo. B cells
don't stuff themselves with antibodies & sit there- they PRODUCE antibodies directed against the variant they see in front of them (if see virus in future) because B cells "recipe book", "blueprint" to produce variant-directed antibodies, amazing paper: science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Although will have to rely on B cells generated by vaccine (or natural immunity) to produce and adapt these antibodies (as booster will generate antibodies against ancestral spike protein) in response to new variant. And what about T cells? Nice paper from S. Africa showed us
that the AztraZeneca vaccine produced 87 T cells across spike protein: "vaccine caused expansion of CD4+/ CD8+ T lymphocytes to specific epitopes of the spike protein. Of 87 spike-specific antigens sequenced, 75 remained unaffected by" [beta variant] nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
So, there are 87 T cells at least across spike protein generated by the vaccine (this is an DNA/adenovirus vaccine) so if even 30 knocked out by mutations, still have in-breadth T cell response left. Try to explain how complex T cell immunity is here
And this is a thread to explain how B cells generated by vaccines or natural immunity will produce antibodies directed against the variants they see in the future if exposed to a new one (of any Greek alphabet designation)
AND THIS IS KEY: if vax'd or immune (even older produce B cells & T cells; immunocompromised have redundancy too), variant can't "set up shop" but can spread through population with less immunity (S Africa 21.3% vax'd). GLOBAL VAX EQUITY KEY - moral & protects against variants
And here is cellular immunity thread to explain bit more about complexity of immune system including immune memory- but we are simply NOT giving access to the vaccine worldwide & that is wrong (WHO is right; boosters for rich, no 1st doses for many)
And finally, someone asked me if antiviral therapies still work against variants- yes, they are not directed against spike proteins- they are directed against enzymes in the viral lifecycle that enable the virus to replicate. Molnupiravir and Paxlovid
1 more point- here health minister said some of the variant cases detected in people's noses who were fully vaccinated but needed to test for travel. If you are well & fully vaccinated with a variant, that implies the vaccines actually work against it. nytimes.com/2021/11/25/wor…
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DC has dropped its mask mandate. Why I and others think that - with an endemic virus - very justified to do this. Would recommend older people & immunocompromised get boosters & to mask indoors in mixed venues this winter if live in place with cases up washingtonpost.com/video/national…
Moreover, we are in unique situation in US where 1) highly vax'd places (like Bay Area) still have remaining mask mandates (except Marin, which is going by hospitalization data); 2) we are now finally acknowledging as public health community vax >>masks so let's motivate vax!
Finally, our group seeing 3 patterns worldwide where severe illness low: 1) high natural immunity (tragically gained, India); 2) high vax rate >75%; 3) lots of hybrid immunity (UK opened 7/19 in midst delta surge but with lots of vax). Maybe 3rd shot Covaxin? whole virus?
Poll: 74% of Americans Say Lives Have Returned to 'Normal' - very happy to see the confidence many in the US have in the vaccines, despite both 1) misinformation; 2) fearful messaging from some public health officials that they don't work well (they do!) medscape.com/viewarticle/96…
Mistaken messages on if vaccines reduce transmission (they do) and if vaccines are working during booster conversation (they do) eroded confidence in the vaccines
Cases used to track with hospitalizations but not now after vaccines- so we should now track hospitalizations to track the pandemic, not cases. Places with very high vax (80%), lots of natural immunity (sadly like India), hybrid immunity (UK) doing best
SCHOOL CLOSURES: Wow, think we should invest in emotional support for children instead of closing schools again after prolonged schools closures last year (that led to mental/emotional difficulty).
I gave talk in Pediatric Grand Rounds this am at UCSF which made me look more deeply at the history of school closures for infectious diseases in US. School closures were ALWAYS last resort & only happened for raging infections (esp those worse for kids than adults like measles)
In influenza pandemic of 1918 (encourage you to read this article), schools were not closed in NYC (& Chicago/ New Haven) because progressive cities (we really changed!) & out of 1 million children, 750K were not from affluent families; schools place for food, safety, learning
Protective immunity after recovery from SARS-CoV-2 infection - an important review in Lancet ID about protection from repeat infection after prior infection vs vaccination. Immunologic review AND review of re-infection studies thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
#1. Developing illness is what all doctors are sworn to prevent so there is rarely advocacy for natural infection but this is what happens if natural infection occurs. Strongest immunologic evidence for enduring immunity, T cells from Science study here: science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
And 2nd amazing paper showing that your B cells will adapt antibodies if they see a variant in the future to the variant in front of them is here (we have discussed this and the above paper in T & B cell threads if you search them) science.org/doi/epdf/10.11…
SHIFT in CDC: Feel like was likely the biggest news of the week & the message may have been missed. With such a transmissible virus, shift away from herd immunity goal is prudent. Can no longer count cases as goal of US epidemic (e.g. get <10K etc.). ktla.com/news/nationwor…
If we track cases as our main metric after vaccination, you will see this yo-yo effect. In late September, CA had lowest cases (yes people gather inside as it gets colder), now FL has lowest cases but tracking hospitalizations is the key after vax abc7.com/california-cov…
And - during delta- a lot of natural immunity occurred in Florida, tragically in many cases but also a lot of natural immunity in younger healthier individuals too which brings up the IgA in the nose & brings down cases; this is chasing one's tail
We need to start thinking differently about COVID outbreaks- this is not really about this particular outbreak (we don't know all the details)- this is about thinking differently after vaccines: sfchronicle.com/opinion/openfo…