This paper analyzes the impact of SARS-Cov-2 variants with enhanced transmissibility and/or partial immune escape.
Short layperson's summary with key takeaways that I personally found useful.
(Thread 1/6)
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Short layperson's summary with key takeaways that I personally found useful.
(Thread 1/6)
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
1. Population-level outcomes are more sensitive to vaccination start time than vaccination rate.
starting vacc. early > doing it swiftly,
but
doing vacc. swiftly > doing it slowly.
"WT + Variant 3" means more transmissable & immune escape properties.
(graph from p. 8)
2/6
starting vacc. early > doing it swiftly,
but
doing vacc. swiftly > doing it slowly.
"WT + Variant 3" means more transmissable & immune escape properties.
(graph from p. 8)
2/6
The model used assumes 60% cross-reactivity (40% escape) and 60% increase of transmissibility.
3/6
3/6
2. Reinfections and breakthrough infections remain rare with moderate immune escape unless aided by
transmissibility.
(graph from p. 10)
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transmissibility.
(graph from p. 10)
4/6
3. Weakening control measures leads to substantial excess infections from variants with enhanced
transmissibility.
(graph from p. 12)
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transmissibility.
(graph from p. 12)
5/6
Important to note: This is but a mathematical model, and it's the job of scientists from this field to peer review this paper. I'm just offering a layperson's rundown of the key takeaways from my perspective.
(graph from p. 23)
6/6
(graph from p. 23)
6/6
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