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Ben See Profile picture
@ClimateBen
Nov 26, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
'The last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C was over 3 million years ago' in the Pliocene, with CO2 levels like today.

We could reach 2.5°C by 2100 if emissions 'stay close to today's levels over a few more decades'.

May that even risk 3°C-4°C?

1/
Scientists tell me not to expect 4C by the 2060s (see 2009 article), but they appear to be clear 3.5C-4C by 2081-2100 is entirely plausible.

If emissions don't drop by the 2040s, could we face up to unthinkable 3.5C-4C,not just horrific 2.5C?

2/
theguardian.com/environment/20…
The best estimates (and very likely ranges) for 2081-2100 in the two scenarios that I believe are widely considered to correspond to our current situation are 2.7C (2.1-3.5C) and 3.6C (2.8-4.6C).

Could another 15-25 years of emissions around today's levels mean 3-4C by 2090?

3/ Image
1.5C-2.5C is already catastrophic enough to leave 100,000s or millions of species struggling, including humans in my opinion.

I ask whether and under what conditions 3-4C by 2090 would be plausible in light if this conversation from yesterday:



4/
'We have already observed impacts of climate change on agriculture. We have assessed the amount of climate change we can adapt to. There’s a lot we can’t adapt to even at 2C. At 4C the impacts are very high and we cannot adapt to them'

2C by 2038-2052?

5/theconversation.com/ipcc-expert-wr…
This excellent IPCC AR6 WG1 thread by @valmasdel is extremely helpful. Clear, concise, fascinating, and terrifying.

6/
How many people have grasped this?

⬇️



7/
Have media and education systems made the ideas in this thread clear to us all? I think not.

8/
There's every reason to think we can't avoid 2.3-2.8C.

Can this be delayed for many centuries or beyond (which may help species to adapt) or will it hit by 2050-2150 which would be too fast for species to cope?

Most scientists expect 2.3-2.8C by 2100.

9/cbc.ca/news/science/c…
We could still hit 4C-5C. What survives that? See here:



10/

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
Feb 19
COLLAPSE: scientists indicate all aspects of human societies will be wrecked by 2029-2092 as habitat destruction and pollution intensify with unsurvivable accelerating warming of 1.95-2.15°C and rising now unavoidable even with capitalism's best-case emissions reductions 🧵
1. 'Most scientists concur..2°C of warming above the temperature during preindustrial time would harm all sectors of civilization - food, water, health, land, national security, energy & economic prosperity
scientificamerican.com/article/earth-…
Best-case: 1.96°C, 2.18°C
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
2. Economic growth means habitat annihilation..

"The 2C target is dead, because the global energy use is rising, and it will continue to rise”.. global heating is likely to reach 2C by 2045
dumptheguardian.com/environment/20…

2°C by 2030-2082
esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/25…
news.stanford.edu/stories/2023/0…
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Feb 11
The economy is a heat engine.
How will it cool the planet?
Collapse is already here.
Time to rethink. 🧵
1.

Economic growth: the engine of collapse

The hope is that, with astute academic guidance and sufficiently powerful doses of political will, we can safely navigate our way through the Anthropocene. 

But there are physical limits to what is possible.
2.
To get a sense of any physical limits, it helps to look at how physical systems function. A useful concept here is a thermodynamic “heat engine”... available energy powers cyclical motions thereby enabling “work’’ to be done to move something else while giving off waste heat.
Read 35 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Feb 6
COLLAPSE: there is a very high likelihood that capitalism has condemned 2 to 7 billion people to an early death by 2038-2058. 🧵
1.

'a very high likelihood of 2.0 °C of regional warming by 2040 for the majority of regions, along with a likelihood of 3 °C by mid-century'
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
2.
Report fr risk management experts the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries:

'At 3C or more of heating by 2050, there could be more than 4 billion deaths, significant sociopolitical fragmentation worldwide, failure of states..'

dumptheguardian.com/environment/20…
Read 8 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Dec 28, 2024
Warming: Image
4°C for the first time by 2045 would be utterly extraordinary. However, 4°C for the first time by 2095 looks more and more likely.

Threads:

Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Dec 28, 2024
Scientsts: global warming of 3°C is

* hard/impossible to survive
* hard/impossible to prevent
* likely by 2069-2092
* plausible by 2045
* just one of many existential threats that mean a total rethink of economic growth is mandatory to protect species and everyone

Journalists:
Capitalism has set up the early deaths of billions of people.

Threads:

Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Dec 25, 2024
Has capitalism left it too late to avoid unsurvivable 2/2.5°C of global warming and rising?

Yes.

Has the scientific community issued major consensus reports indicating only political-economic systems changes may end biodiversity destruction and limit abrupt climate chaos?

Yes.
A lot has happened in the past 10 months.

Read 5 tweets

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