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Ben See Profile picture
@ClimateBen
Nov 26, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
'The last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C was over 3 million years ago' in the Pliocene, with CO2 levels like today.

We could reach 2.5°C by 2100 if emissions 'stay close to today's levels over a few more decades'.

May that even risk 3°C-4°C?

1/
Scientists tell me not to expect 4C by the 2060s (see 2009 article), but they appear to be clear 3.5C-4C by 2081-2100 is entirely plausible.

If emissions don't drop by the 2040s, could we face up to unthinkable 3.5C-4C,not just horrific 2.5C?

2/
theguardian.com/environment/20…
The best estimates (and very likely ranges) for 2081-2100 in the two scenarios that I believe are widely considered to correspond to our current situation are 2.7C (2.1-3.5C) and 3.6C (2.8-4.6C).

Could another 15-25 years of emissions around today's levels mean 3-4C by 2090?

3/ Image
1.5C-2.5C is already catastrophic enough to leave 100,000s or millions of species struggling, including humans in my opinion.

I ask whether and under what conditions 3-4C by 2090 would be plausible in light if this conversation from yesterday:



4/
'We have already observed impacts of climate change on agriculture. We have assessed the amount of climate change we can adapt to. There’s a lot we can’t adapt to even at 2C. At 4C the impacts are very high and we cannot adapt to them'

2C by 2038-2052?

5/theconversation.com/ipcc-expert-wr…
This excellent IPCC AR6 WG1 thread by @valmasdel is extremely helpful. Clear, concise, fascinating, and terrifying.

6/
How many people have grasped this?

⬇️



7/
Have media and education systems made the ideas in this thread clear to us all? I think not.

8/
There's every reason to think we can't avoid 2.3-2.8C.

Can this be delayed for many centuries or beyond (which may help species to adapt) or will it hit by 2050-2150 which would be too fast for species to cope?

Most scientists expect 2.3-2.8C by 2100.

9/cbc.ca/news/science/c…
We could still hit 4C-5C. What survives that? See here:



10/

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
Dec 28, 2024
Warming: Image
4°C for the first time by 2045 would be utterly extraordinary. However, 4°C for the first time by 2095 looks more and more likely.

Threads:

Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Dec 28, 2024
Scientsts: global warming of 3°C is

* hard/impossible to survive
* hard/impossible to prevent
* likely by 2069-2092
* plausible by 2045
* just one of many existential threats that mean a total rethink of economic growth is mandatory to protect species and everyone

Journalists:
Capitalism has set up the early deaths of billions of people.

Threads:

Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Dec 25, 2024
Has capitalism left it too late to avoid unsurvivable 2/2.5°C of global warming and rising?

Yes.

Has the scientific community issued major consensus reports indicating only political-economic systems changes may end biodiversity destruction and limit abrupt climate chaos?

Yes.
A lot has happened in the past 10 months.

Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Nov 22, 2024
The factory food, fossil fuel, and arms industries are all thriving. Cement, plastics, steel.. This capitalist Extinction Economy is the worst-case scenario. It won't stop emissions. It has condemned us to essentially unsurvivable warming at 1.9-2°C and rising by 2029-41. 🧵
1. Mass media journalists are silent on 2°C by 2032-41 as warming hits 1.38-1.5C increasing by 0.35-0.45C per decade.

'12 months after the peak of the El Niño event and global temperatures are still exceptionally high'

Capitalsim won't 'redouble efforts'.cbc.ca/news/science/2…
2.
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Nov 20, 2024
BREAKING: World Meteorological Organization issues Red Alert to humanity as accelerating global warming of 1.4-1.7°C and rising heralds essentially unsurvivable conditions within years not decades 🧵
1. The January –September 2024 global mean surface air temperature was 1.54°C (with a margin of uncertainty of ±0.13°C) above the pre-industrial average boosted by a warming El Niño event according to an analysis of six international datasets used by WMO.
2.
Read 7 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Nov 17, 2024
BREAKING: scientists hold back tears and shake their heads sadly as they explain utterly compromised COP29 climate conference was meant to be the last chance to organise rapid and deep emissions cuts for any chance of staying well below essentially unsurvivable 2°C 🧵
1. Time has run out to avoid 1.5°C (now sure to hit in the 2020s) and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. 1.75°C will be exceeded soon after with dire 2°C expected by 2030-2050

news.exeter.ac.uk/faculty-of-env…
2. Abrupt climate change is just one compounding factor in extinction catastrophe.
Biodiversity destruction is a core part of the reality of industrial capitalism.
Change this Doom Economy now while it's still too late to protect species and everyone.🧵⬇️
Read 8 tweets

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