Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Ben See Profile picture
@ClimateBen
Nov 26, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
'The last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C was over 3 million years ago' in the Pliocene, with CO2 levels like today.

We could reach 2.5°C by 2100 if emissions 'stay close to today's levels over a few more decades'.

May that even risk 3°C-4°C?

1/
Scientists tell me not to expect 4C by the 2060s (see 2009 article), but they appear to be clear 3.5C-4C by 2081-2100 is entirely plausible.

If emissions don't drop by the 2040s, could we face up to unthinkable 3.5C-4C,not just horrific 2.5C?

2/
theguardian.com/environment/20…
The best estimates (and very likely ranges) for 2081-2100 in the two scenarios that I believe are widely considered to correspond to our current situation are 2.7C (2.1-3.5C) and 3.6C (2.8-4.6C).

Could another 15-25 years of emissions around today's levels mean 3-4C by 2090?

3/ Image
1.5C-2.5C is already catastrophic enough to leave 100,000s or millions of species struggling, including humans in my opinion.

I ask whether and under what conditions 3-4C by 2090 would be plausible in light if this conversation from yesterday:



4/
'We have already observed impacts of climate change on agriculture. We have assessed the amount of climate change we can adapt to. There’s a lot we can’t adapt to even at 2C. At 4C the impacts are very high and we cannot adapt to them'

2C by 2038-2052?

5/theconversation.com/ipcc-expert-wr…
This excellent IPCC AR6 WG1 thread by @valmasdel is extremely helpful. Clear, concise, fascinating, and terrifying.

6/
How many people have grasped this?

⬇️



7/
Have media and education systems made the ideas in this thread clear to us all? I think not.

8/
There's every reason to think we can't avoid 2.3-2.8C.

Can this be delayed for many centuries or beyond (which may help species to adapt) or will it hit by 2050-2150 which would be too fast for species to cope?

Most scientists expect 2.3-2.8C by 2100.

9/cbc.ca/news/science/c…
We could still hit 4C-5C. What survives that? See here:



10/

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Ben See

Ben See Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
Mar 30
DOOM: For 250 years between 1720 and 1969, the US, UK, & Europe were the main CO2 emitters and the key wreckers of biodiversity. These criminal countries subsequently blocked any attempts to change the deeply entrenched economic system away from deadly capitalism and growth. Share of global CO2 emissions- Our World in Data
1. The US knew by the 1950s/60s that systems change was required to avoid global catastrophe. Scientists informed the President. However, the priorities remained power and wealth.

2.
Read 6 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 24
Earth's species will suffer global warming of 2, 2.5, or 3°C in 12 to 14 years. (No scientist really thinks we won't hit at least 1.96°C for the first time by 2038 after hitting 1.68°C in 2024.) Primates like humans are unlikely to survive for very much longer. Time to rethink.🧵 Headline excerpt : the world will see 3°C much faster than expected
1. "a rise in global temperatures of 3.1C is not compatible with human survival." @jeremycorbyn
Organise for political and economic system change action while it's still too late to protect species and everyone.
dumptheguardian.com/commentisfree/…
3°C trend from 2045.
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
@jeremycorbyn 2.
Read 9 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 4
New research shows we're heading for rapid mass extinction at 3-5°C of global warming even if we avoid the so-called worst-case scenarios. 🧵 SSP scenarios will result in far more warming than thought
3 to 4 or even 5°C with the 'moderate' SSP2-4.5 emissions scenario.
SSP3-7.0 looks closer to reality to me, so 4-5°C.

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
We should in fact anticipate 3.5-5°C by 2075-2125.

See new research from December 2024:
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…

x.com/Peters_Glen/st…
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 2
COLLAPSING:  scientists indicate civilisation-wrecking conditions are already developing as rapid mass extinction accelerates with billions set to be killed from 2029- 2048🧵
Current generic extinction rates likely to greatly accelerate in coming decades due to economic growth & overconsumption by the rich.
Economic activities during capitalism are destroying the conditions that make human life possible.
pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…
salon.com/2023/09/19/exp…
Plastic contamination will soon be "catastrophic" for human health and is slowly "killing the human race"

more cancer, more allergic diseases, more infertility

microplastics are everywhere

google.com/amp/s/news.sky…
Read 7 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Feb 22
DOOM:  majority of scientists think difficult-or-impossible-to-survive warming of 1.9-2.1°C and rising is now unavoidable and set to begin wiping out species within years 🧵
1. 'New assessment warns area the size of the USA will become too hot during extreme heat events for even healthy young humans to maintain a safe body temperature if we hit 2°C'
kcl.ac.uk/news/half-a-de…

"if we hit 2°C"?

Virtually all scientists expect 2°C.agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
2. Even before new research confirming warming is accelerating, the overwhelming majority of climate scientists fully expected ~2°C (in most cases much more).

'perhaps half of all species will be vulnerable to thermal infertility'
phys.org/news/2021-05-i…
x.com/ClimateBen/sta…
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Feb 19
COLLAPSE: scientists indicate all aspects of human societies will be wrecked by 2029-2092 as habitat destruction and pollution intensify with unsurvivable accelerating warming of 1.95-2.15°C and rising now unavoidable even with capitalism's best-case emissions reductions 🧵
1. 'Most scientists concur..2°C of warming above the temperature during preindustrial time would harm all sectors of civilization - food, water, health, land, national security, energy & economic prosperity
scientificamerican.com/article/earth-…
Best-case: 1.96°C, 2.18°C
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
2. Economic growth means habitat annihilation..

"The 2C target is dead, because the global energy use is rising, and it will continue to rise”.. global heating is likely to reach 2C by 2045
dumptheguardian.com/environment/20…

2°C by 2030-2082
esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/25…
news.stanford.edu/stories/2023/0…
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(