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Ben See Profile picture
@ClimateBen
Nov 26, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
'The last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C was over 3 million years ago' in the Pliocene, with CO2 levels like today.

We could reach 2.5°C by 2100 if emissions 'stay close to today's levels over a few more decades'.

May that even risk 3°C-4°C?

1/
Scientists tell me not to expect 4C by the 2060s (see 2009 article), but they appear to be clear 3.5C-4C by 2081-2100 is entirely plausible.

If emissions don't drop by the 2040s, could we face up to unthinkable 3.5C-4C,not just horrific 2.5C?

2/
theguardian.com/environment/20…
The best estimates (and very likely ranges) for 2081-2100 in the two scenarios that I believe are widely considered to correspond to our current situation are 2.7C (2.1-3.5C) and 3.6C (2.8-4.6C).

Could another 15-25 years of emissions around today's levels mean 3-4C by 2090?

3/ Image
1.5C-2.5C is already catastrophic enough to leave 100,000s or millions of species struggling, including humans in my opinion.

I ask whether and under what conditions 3-4C by 2090 would be plausible in light if this conversation from yesterday:



4/
'We have already observed impacts of climate change on agriculture. We have assessed the amount of climate change we can adapt to. There’s a lot we can’t adapt to even at 2C. At 4C the impacts are very high and we cannot adapt to them'

2C by 2038-2052?

5/theconversation.com/ipcc-expert-wr…
This excellent IPCC AR6 WG1 thread by @valmasdel is extremely helpful. Clear, concise, fascinating, and terrifying.

6/
How many people have grasped this?

⬇️



7/
Have media and education systems made the ideas in this thread clear to us all? I think not.

8/
There's every reason to think we can't avoid 2.3-2.8C.

Can this be delayed for many centuries or beyond (which may help species to adapt) or will it hit by 2050-2150 which would be too fast for species to cope?

Most scientists expect 2.3-2.8C by 2100.

9/cbc.ca/news/science/c…
We could still hit 4C-5C. What survives that? See here:



10/

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
Nov 22
The factory food, fossil fuel, and arms industries are all thriving. Cement, plastics, steel.. This capitalist Extinction Economy is the worst-case scenario. It won't stop emissions. It has condemned us to essentially unsurvivable warming at 1.9-2°C and rising by 2029-41. 🧵
1. Mass media journalists are silent on 2°C by 2032-41 as warming hits 1.38-1.5C increasing by 0.35-0.45C per decade.

'12 months after the peak of the El Niño event and global temperatures are still exceptionally high'

Capitalsim won't 'redouble efforts'.cbc.ca/news/science/2…
2.
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Nov 20
BREAKING: World Meteorological Organization issues Red Alert to humanity as accelerating global warming of 1.4-1.7°C and rising heralds essentially unsurvivable conditions within years not decades 🧵
1. The January –September 2024 global mean surface air temperature was 1.54°C (with a margin of uncertainty of ±0.13°C) above the pre-industrial average boosted by a warming El Niño event according to an analysis of six international datasets used by WMO.
2.
Read 7 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Nov 17
BREAKING: scientists hold back tears and shake their heads sadly as they explain utterly compromised COP29 climate conference was meant to be the last chance to organise rapid and deep emissions cuts for any chance of staying well below essentially unsurvivable 2°C 🧵
1. Time has run out to avoid 1.5°C (now sure to hit in the 2020s) and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. 1.75°C will be exceeded soon after with dire 2°C expected by 2030-2050

news.exeter.ac.uk/faculty-of-env…
2. Abrupt climate change is just one compounding factor in extinction catastrophe.
Biodiversity destruction is a core part of the reality of industrial capitalism.
Change this Doom Economy now while it's still too late to protect species and everyone.🧵⬇️
Read 8 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Nov 16
COLLAPSING: scientists confirm there's no doubt humanity will see the real risk of catastrophic multiple breadbasket failures by 2035-2045 🧵
1. “.. we will, certainly, in the next 15 to 20 years, see continued food crises, and the real risk of multiple breadbasket failures … that’s in addition to a lot of the other risks that might impact us through fresh-water pollution, ocean acidification..”dumptheguardian.com/environment/20…
2. theguardian.com/environment/20…
Disease, loss of insects to pollinate crops, collapse of fisheries..

IPBES report: a market-based focus on economic growth meant the wider benefits of nature – including spiritual, cultural and emotional value – had been ignored
x.com/ClimateBen/sta…
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Nov 14
BREAKING: horrified scientists discover plankton can't adapt to accelerating rate of global warming🧵
1. 'alarming: plankton are unable to adapt to the unprecedented speed of current temperature increases, jeopardizing vast marine ecosystems'

Change this Extinction Economy now while it's still too late to protect species and everyone.

techexplorist.com/some-sea-life-…
2. even under conservative climate projections predicting a 2°C rise, it is evident that plankton cannot keep pace with the rapid warming we are experiencing, which shows no signs of slowing down'

Extinction: climate change is just one compounding factor.
techexplorist.com/some-sea-life-…
Read 8 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Nov 9
BREAKING: scientists confirm plastic production is unsustainable and must end as their fears that 30-70% of Earth's species will go extinct this century intensify 🧵
1. “What is clear is we cannot manage the amount of plastic we are producing..Only 10% of it gets recycled, something needs to be done"

Plastic pollution affecting climate, biodiversity, ecosystems, ocean acidification, species' health. #ExtinctionEconomy
dumptheguardian.com/environment/20…
2.
Read 7 tweets

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