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Ben See Profile picture
@ClimateBen
Nov 26, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
'The last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C was over 3 million years ago' in the Pliocene, with CO2 levels like today.

We could reach 2.5°C by 2100 if emissions 'stay close to today's levels over a few more decades'.

May that even risk 3°C-4°C?

1/
Scientists tell me not to expect 4C by the 2060s (see 2009 article), but they appear to be clear 3.5C-4C by 2081-2100 is entirely plausible.

If emissions don't drop by the 2040s, could we face up to unthinkable 3.5C-4C,not just horrific 2.5C?

2/
theguardian.com/environment/20…
The best estimates (and very likely ranges) for 2081-2100 in the two scenarios that I believe are widely considered to correspond to our current situation are 2.7C (2.1-3.5C) and 3.6C (2.8-4.6C).

Could another 15-25 years of emissions around today's levels mean 3-4C by 2090?

3/ Image
1.5C-2.5C is already catastrophic enough to leave 100,000s or millions of species struggling, including humans in my opinion.

I ask whether and under what conditions 3-4C by 2090 would be plausible in light if this conversation from yesterday:



4/
'We have already observed impacts of climate change on agriculture. We have assessed the amount of climate change we can adapt to. There’s a lot we can’t adapt to even at 2C. At 4C the impacts are very high and we cannot adapt to them'

2C by 2038-2052?

5/theconversation.com/ipcc-expert-wr…
This excellent IPCC AR6 WG1 thread by @valmasdel is extremely helpful. Clear, concise, fascinating, and terrifying.

6/
How many people have grasped this?

⬇️



7/
Have media and education systems made the ideas in this thread clear to us all? I think not.

8/
There's every reason to think we can't avoid 2.3-2.8C.

Can this be delayed for many centuries or beyond (which may help species to adapt) or will it hit by 2050-2150 which would be too fast for species to cope?

Most scientists expect 2.3-2.8C by 2100.

9/cbc.ca/news/science/c…
We could still hit 4C-5C. What survives that? See here:



10/

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
Jun 21
Has capitalism left it too late to avoid hellish 2/2.5°C of global warming and rising?

Yes.

Can we adapt?

No.

Has the scientific community issued major consensus reports indicating political-economic systems changes are mandatory?

Yes.

Will journalists reveal this?

No.

🧵
The planet you think you're living on no longer exists. This Extinction Economy has set up conditions which scientists fear will prove unsurvivable for the majority of species within decades. Change this Doom-growth system now while it's still too late.
Global warming will happen faster than expected
Mass extinction media won't explain why we will hit 2/2.5°C by or before 2040-41. They are part of the state-corporate doom machine and don't want you researching clouds, aerosols, and climate sensitivity. Time to rethink to protect species and everyone.

Read 9 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Jun 17
BREAKING: fears of catastrophe grow as Establishment scientists who organised IPCC's dangerously wrong climate assumptions begin to acknowledge they were wrong 🧵
1. Are Establishment figures really beginning to acknowledge their mistake? Scientists like Hansen, Simons, etc have been pointing out the likelihood of 2°C by the 2030s for a long time, but corporate journalists naturally refuse to investigate seriously.
2. Conservative scientists have insisted for years we should disregard models that show even more extreme warming should be anticipated (and sooner) than the already extreme warming previously expected.

carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how…
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
May 10
Irreversible unsurvivable warming:

1.5-1.75°C by 2024-2026
1.75-2°C by 2029-2031
2-2.25°C by 2034-2036

Time's up.

Rethink human systems now to protect species and everyone while it's still too late.

🧵 1.75°C by 2030
State-corporate journalists/editors have ignored the latest climate models for years and years. They've had the information needed to warn the public for decades. Hellish two degrees and rising in the 2030s is nearly here.

System change to try to survive.
The Extinction Economy is wiping out life as we know it. 40-70% of species are at critical extreme risk of extinction within a few decades. Abrupt climate change is just one compounding factor in the annihilation of biodiversity and life as we know it.

🧵
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Apr 29
Scientists used to think utterly unsurvivable extremes wouldn't hit until 2081-2300 or later (or never). Now they fully expect abrupt global extinction horror by the 2040s.
1. 'What happens in the next two decades will very likely define the future of biodiversity and H. sapiens.' From 2023.

2.
Read 13 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 30
DOOM: For 250 years between 1720 and 1969, the US, UK, & Europe were the main CO2 emitters and the key wreckers of biodiversity. These criminal countries subsequently blocked any attempts to change the deeply entrenched economic system away from deadly capitalism and growth. Share of global CO2 emissions- Our World in Data
1. The US knew by the 1950s/60s that systems change was required to avoid global catastrophe. Scientists informed the President. However, the priorities remained power and wealth.

2.
Read 6 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Mar 24
Earth's species will suffer global warming of 2, 2.5, or 3°C in 12 to 14 years. (No scientist really thinks we won't hit at least 1.96°C for the first time by 2038 after hitting 1.68°C in 2024.) Primates like humans are unlikely to survive for very much longer. Time to rethink.🧵 Headline excerpt : the world will see 3°C much faster than expected
1. "a rise in global temperatures of 3.1C is not compatible with human survival." @jeremycorbyn
Organise for political and economic system change action while it's still too late to protect species and everyone.
dumptheguardian.com/commentisfree/…
3°C trend from 2045.
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
@jeremycorbyn 2.
Read 9 tweets

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