What a sorry sight to see two great countries, or at least their leaders, fighting like school-kids only two days after the calamity in the Channel in which at least 27 refugees died. Both Johnson & Macron merit some of the blame. But this is mostly down to Johnson 1/
His first reaction after the disaster, after mumbling a few words about his thoughts for the families of those drowned, was to blame France. This was a direct appeal to French-bashing tabloid fury. The Mail online splash the next day was “This is down to you, Macron” 2/
He then had a lengthy phone conversation with @EmmanuelMacron yesterday in which, according to senior French sources & media reports, both men agreed to think afresh about how to reduce the number of flimsy boats crossing 30 treacherous kilometres of sea 3/
.@BorisJohnson then released – & tweeted – a long letter to Macron in which he rehashed old UKG proposals, the most important of which have already been rejected by France. British bobbies should police French beaches; all migrants who cross should be sent straight back again 4/
The first is an obvious no-no – an infringement of sovereignty no Govt could accept. Yes, the Le Touquet treaty moves the British frontier to the pas de Calais. Yes, UKG officials already check passports on French soil (& vice-versa). But British cops on Fr beaches? Non, merci 5/
The second – sending migrants straight back – is frought with domestic & international legal complications. It's an attempt to go back to a situation which existed pre-Brexit (what about take back control???) & didn’t work well then. It is tabloid fodder: not new & not serious 6/
The letters release was timed for last night’s 10pm news bulletins & today’s papers. Still, senior UKG officials point out the PM's conciliatory tone - paying tribute to Fr authorities work on the “challenging issue” of small boats & offering “support and solidarity” 7/
But Johnson has clearly & badly misjudged the mood in Paris. He should know there is a huge trust problem/deficit with Fr. He knows Macron has rebuffed Downing Street’s repeated attempts to arrange a bilateral meeting between the two leaders. He should have been more careful 8/
Macron is indeed furious. He accused Johnson at a presser in Rome today of “adopting methods which are not serious”. Fair enough. But he also foolishly ordered his Govt to withdraw an invitation to @pritipatel to meet her Fr, Ger, Dutch & Belgian peers in Calais on Sun 9/
That also is “pas serieux”. It would have been a very good thing to expose @pritipatel to the wider migration crisis in Europe. Calais cannot be solved in Calais 10/
Paris owed the 27 (at least) migrants who lost their lives that much: to bring the UKG back into a European conversation that it has been ostentatiously snubbing 11/
The big hole in Johnson’s non-plan was any concession that this is in any way, a British problem. Thousands of refugees are so determined to come to Britain that they will risk their lives – but they are only a fraction, remember, of the refugees entering the EU landmass 12/
France, on Britain’s behalf has blocked all truck or train routes for them across the Channel 13/
Fr says Britain must reduce consequent desperation levels in Calais by allowing refugees to apply for British asylum while on Fr soil. For political reasons, this is a no-no for Johnson. But this is why Britain shares, with France, some of the responsibility for Weds calamity 14/
Officials on both sides believe (hope???) the two leaders will eventually acknowledge they have more in common eg on geopolitical issues like China & Russia that will bring them together than they now admit. But this is unlikely to happen for some time 15/
1/ Bc of next spring’s French Pr election & 2/ Bc Johnson is in a weaker position inside his Party & under pressure from Brexiteers to be even tougher to “stop the boats” which will limit his room for manoeuvre 16/
But the dispute over migrants does not shine a flattering light on either country. Whether that continues will depend on whether they are able & willing to put the politics aside - something I fear will prove difficult to do
ENDS

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More from @Mij_Europe

25 Nov
Italian politics is about to get very interesting - volatile? - again. It all hangs on a decision Mario Draghi has to make in Jan: whether to transition to the Presidency or remain PM until 2023. His decision will carry big implications for Italy - & Europe 1/
Since becoming PM, Draghi has moved steadfastly to articulate & implement reforms in exchange for Italy’s €191.5 billion in EU pandemic recovery funds. He has also elevated Italy's voice in EU debates - & not simply those related to economic policy 2/
But Italy’s political world is now consumed with horse-trading over the election of its next president, who must be elected by MPs to replace Sergio Mattarella in late Jan, assuming he is not re-elected for a second term - an option he seems determined to avoid 3/
Read 25 tweets
24 Nov
A Downing Street spokesperson:
 
“The Prime Minister spoke to Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin this afternoon.
 
“The Taoiseach began by congratulating the Prime Minister on the success of the COP26 Summit. The Prime Minister thanked Ireland for its support and the leaders agreed
that the Summit marked a step change in tackling climate change around the world. The leaders also discussed their countries’ respective fights against coronavirus.
 
“The Prime Minister raised his ongoing concern about the substantial distance between the UK and EU positions 2/
when it comes to resolving the issues with the Northern Ireland Protocol. The Protocol was rightly keeping North-South trade open but its implementation was damaging the much larger East-West dimension. We could not allow a situation to develop in which the Government was unable
Read 8 tweets
19 Nov
Momentum towards Article 16 has gone. If anything, it’s now in reverse.  Johnson and Frost are now going to call it in the new year. See where negotiations and land lies in January 1/
This is purely about political context. As one Tory MP says, “Article 16 has to be done from a position of strength but Boris is suddenly in a much weaker state. He could have done it at Conference when he was riding high. The whole party would have rallied behind him.. ” 2/
“Now it would look like a desperate diversionary tactic.” But even though steam has gone out of it, this phase could prove to be tactical - until @BorisJohnson has less on his plate. It's doubtful there has been a major change of heart in UKG regarding Protocol 3/
Read 6 tweets
18 Nov
The soaraway, undeclared, French, presidential campaign by the racist pundit Eric Zemmour is no longer soaring. A fourth opinion poll in ten days shows a small drop in support for Zemmour (who is in London tomorrow 👀) 1/4

lesechos.fr/elections/pres…
The Opinonway poll for Les Echos and Cnews (the right wing TV channel where Zemmour used to pontificate nightly) shows him dropping to 12% of voting intentions  before the first round next April 2/4
This is only a 1 point fall on last month but four different polls in a row have now shown Zemmour falling by 1 to 2 points after an unbroken rise in Sept and Oct (reaching as high as 18% in one survey) 3/4
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov
Overwhelmed by frequency & variations of French polls? Huff Post has performed a public service by averaging leading polls over many months. It has arranged trends into a fascinating, moving graphic showing changing configurations of the major players 1/

huffingtonpost.fr/entry/presiden…
Key points. President Macron has been floating ahead of the pack in first round voting intentions for several months on 23 to 25 %. The only major change has been the rise of the racist pundit Eric Zemmour, who shot from 5% to 17%  in a couple of weeks, taking votes mostly.. 2/
... but not entirely from Marine Le Pen and overtaking  her  in some polls. Zemmour has stopped rising in the last month, however, and now averages 17.5%, just ahead of MLP 3/
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9 Nov
To dissuade UKG from triggering Article 16, EU is drawing up a package of short/medium term retaliatory measures which cd be put to @DavidGHFrost by @MarosSefcovic on Fri. As one senior official says: "In order to avoid escalation, you have to demonstrate escalation dominance" 1/
Imp, while EU's package will likely include medium-term plans to suspend TCA, it could also incl options for short-term tariff retaliation BEFORE arbitration proceedings. (Assumption to date has been tariffs wd require conclusion of infringement procedure or arbitration panel) 2/
There will be lots of nuances & legal complexities, but EU side believes certain provisions within TCA - especially Articles 506 & 773 - would enable swifter, more immediate tariff retaliation. While 506 primarily relates to fish, it can be used by EU to threaten escalation..
Read 7 tweets

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