Nik Shah 💯× Profile picture
Nov 26, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Biden's $1.75T Build Back Better (BBB) Act will *not* solve the Housing Crisis.

Here's why: ⬇️⬇️⬇️
The House of Representatives passed Build Back Better last week. It will now head to the Senate for a vote.

Build Back Better allocates $1.75T to clean energy, child care, housing and health care.
What is the Housing Crisis?

Right now, there simple aren't enough homes available for sale in the US housing market. This supply shortage prices out a lot of homebuyers.

Do the housing provisions in Build Back Better address this issue? Image
Build Back Better allocates $150B to housing programs.

Most of this outlay targets programs for renters.

Let's look at some of the major programs. Image
Section 40001 provides grants to repair, replace and construct rental properties.

However, given huge backlogs, most of these funds will be used for repairs and renovations.

There is very little scope for new home construction. Image
Sections 40009 and 40010 allocate $25 B for rental assistance.

This will improve affordability, and drive up demand for rental units.

But if the supply of rental units stays the same, this improvement in affordability may be nullified by runaway rent increases. Image
Section 40002 provides grants for improving the housing supply.

According to our calculations, the funds allotted to this program can add up to 250K housing units.

However, according to experts, the current inventory shortage is much larger - between 3.8-5.5 million units! Image
Section 40201 allocates $10 B for down payment assistance to first-generation homeowners.

However, the maximum assistance provided under this program is $20,000 - considerably lower than the median down-payment of $27,850. Image
The housing programs in the Build Back Better package are a good start in increasing housing accessibility for ordinary Americans.

But Biden will have to do a lot more if he wants to solve the Housing Crisis!
For more free insights on the housing market, subscribe here.

homellc.substack.com.

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More from @NikhaarShah

Dec 30, 2022
🏡2022 Housing Mkt: An Overview🏡

The 2022 housing market saw lots of twists & turns.

Both buyers and sellers struggled with the uncertainty & high mortgage rates.

Here's a summary of the market trends:
1. Mortgages rates rose to 7+% (a 20-yr high), as a result of the Fed's fight against inflation.
2. Soaring rates, good home price growth & high inflation worsened housing affordability further, particularly in the West.
Read 8 tweets
Nov 14, 2022
🌹Portland: Rosy or Rained out?🌹

With many West Coast housing markets experiencing corrections, how fares wet old Portland? Have the rate hikes rained on the prices parade?

Let's find out. Thread 🧵 Image
It's been raining listings in Portland. The inventory has risen rapidly since May'22, hitting its peak in August, easing things for the buyers.

It has been declining slowly since then but active listings are up 32% YoY and it'll take the metro a few weeks to absorb that. Image
Nevertheless, it'll get the time to run through that inventory as New Listings have been rapidly declining since June.

They're down 28% Year-on-Year as sellers hold back. Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 14, 2022
📉New Listings Update📉

As the rates have risen rapidly, sellers have been holding back & new listings have been declining.

Down 17.5% YoY nationally, new listings are falling across most of the Top 100 metros.

However, 6 of them seem to be bucking the trend for now. Thread🧵 Image
1. Akron, OH

Several metros of Ohio show better affordability trends, with differences in average rents and monthly mortgage payments still being reasonable.

New Listings in Akron, Ohio are up 3.9% Year-on-Year Image
2. El Paso, TX

The housing market in the Texan city remains healthier than most metros with decent affordability and home prices below national levels. New sellers continue to enter the market.

New Listings are up 8.1% YoY Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 12, 2022
🏡Migration Patterns Report🏡

We explore @Redfin's report on migration patterns of homebuyers under the stress of housing affordability & inflation.

In Q3, a record 24.2% people showed interest in moving to another metro. Image
@Redfin People are looking to leave largest metros like New York, Los Angeles & Chicago. Image
@Redfin Poor housing affordability is one of the principal factors forcing people to migrate, both within and without the state.

For LA residents, San Diego & Las Vegas are most desirable in-state & out-of-state destinations, respectively. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 28, 2022
🧿 5-Tweet Housing Market Snapshot 🧿

1. Home sellers are staying put.

New listings growth is down 12.9% YoY.
2. Homes are selling just 7 days slower than a year ago.
3. Inventory growth has slightly quickened, 36.2% Up YoY.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 27, 2022
📈U.S. Labor Market is Hot📈

Number of non-farm employees keep rising.
All Top 100 Metros, except Jackson, MS, have seen positive growth.
Unemployment rate continues to fall.

At 3.5%, it's among the lowest since 60s.
Read 6 tweets

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