🏡2022 Housing Mkt: An Overview🏡

The 2022 housing market saw lots of twists & turns.

Both buyers and sellers struggled with the uncertainty & high mortgage rates.

Here's a summary of the market trends: 1. Mortgages rates rose to 7+% (a 20-yr high), as a result of the Fed's fight against inflation.

🌹Portland: Rosy or Rained out?🌹

With many West Coast housing markets experiencing corrections, how fares wet old Portland? Have the rate hikes rained on the prices parade?

Let's find out. Thread 🧵 It's been raining listings in Portland. The inventory has risen rapidly since May'22, hitting its peak in August, easing things for the buyers.

It has been declining slowly since then but active listings are up 32% YoY and it'll take the metro a few weeks to absorb that.

📉New Listings Update📉

As the rates have risen rapidly, sellers have been holding back & new listings have been declining.

Down 17.5% YoY nationally, new listings are falling across most of the Top 100 metros.

However, 6 of them seem to be bucking the trend for now. Thread🧵 1. Akron, OH

Several metros of Ohio show better affordability trends, with differences in average rents and monthly mortgage payments still being reasonable.

New Listings in Akron, Ohio are up 3.9% Year-on-Year

🏡Migration Patterns Report🏡

We explore @Redfin's report on migration patterns of homebuyers under the stress of housing affordability & inflation.

In Q3, a record 24.2% people showed interest in moving to another metro. @Redfin People are looking to leave largest metros like New York, Los Angeles & Chicago.

🧿 5-Tweet Housing Market Snapshot 🧿

1. Home sellers are staying put.

New listings growth is down 12.9% YoY. 2. Homes are selling just 7 days slower than a year ago.

📈U.S. Labor Market is Hot📈

Number of non-farm employees keep rising. All Top 100 Metros, except Jackson, MS, have seen positive growth.

🏡Housing Inventory Update🏡

Nationally, active home listings are up 5% from last year.

Locally, it's a mixed bag. We look at a few markets in this thread. 1. Las Vegas

The inventory skyrocketed once we hit April this year but things have calmed down.

Inventory has started decaying this month with active listings down 2% Month-on-Month.

🏡 New Residential Sales Update 🏡

Sales of New Single-Family Homes rose 28.8% Month-on-Month. Supply, though still high, is now decaying.

🏡 Is the housing market HOT or COLD ?

Here's what the data says:

1. Days On Market: 🥵

Homes are selling after less than 30 days on the market. 2. Home Sales: 🥶

Home sales are much lower than at the same point in 2020 & 2021.

🚀 4 Reasons We're Bullish On The US Housing Market 🚀

1. Home prices are resilient.

Despite mortgage rates doubling so far in 2022, the prospect of home price degrowth is unlikely. 2. Mortgage rate hikes don't negatively impact home prices.

In the last 30+ years, home prices have grown every time mortgage rates have skyrocketed.

🚨 Raleigh - North To South? 🚨

Home prices in Raleigh are rising - fast.

4 reasons things will start to change soon ⬇️⬇️⬇️ 1. 116% inventory growth YoY - 6th fastest among the 100 largest metros.

🔍 The San Diego Housing Mystery 🔎

Let's crack the case ⬇️⬇️⬇️ San Diego MSA is one of the 10 least affordable housing markets.

🐦Phoenix to Ashes, Investors to Dust? 🐦

Housing supply in Phoenix is skyrocketing.

There are 107% more homes for sale than a year ago. Sellers seem to be panicking.

365% more sellers have reduced list prices in Phoenix YoY.

🏡 Real estate agents: What are you seeing in your local housing market right now?

DMs open if you want to stay anonymous. Seattle, WA broker: "We are seeing an increasing number of sellers cancel their listing after 12-16 days once their expectations are not met. Inventory is starting to flatten out after rising sharply last month."

🌆 Local housing market analysis 🌆

A thread of cities we've covered: ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Austin

https://twitter.com/NikhaarShah/status/1537465310042890241

⚠️ Impending crash in Boise? ⚠️

3 housing indicators to keep an eye on ⬇️⬇️⬇️ 1. Housing Supply: Up 116% YoY.

Only Austin's supply has grown faster @ 130%.

🏡 Tampa - The Odd One Out 🏡

4 of the 10 riskiest housing markets are from Florida.

Tampa is not one of them - here are 4 reasons why. 1. Low risk of future oversupply.

In recent months, Jacksonville has issued 3x permits as compared to Tampa (adjusted for total housing units).

🧿 Housing market snapshot in 5 tweets 🧿

1. US housing inventory is up 17% YoY.

It's up even higher in Austin (135%) and Boise (124%)! 2. 620% more sellers have taken price cuts in Raleigh, as compared to last June!

Price reductions are up an alarming 85% nationwide.

🚨 Housing Market Update 🚨

Mortgage rates spike by 55 BPS in a single week, largest increase in over 42 years!

30 year rates haven't been this high since late 2008. Despite the spike, homebuying activity rebounded 8% this week, after a sharp decline the week prior.

Purchase applications are 15.5% lower than what they were this time last year.

🚨 Stone Cold Austin? 🚨

3 reasons why Austin is one of the riskiest housing markets in the US. 1. 10x YoY inventory growth as compared to the US!

Housing supply in Austin is up 130% annually.

🏡 Where Will Home Prices Crash First?

Millions are facing an affordability crisis.

The affordability gap for the median American household is the highest on record. Most areas will see a deceleration in home prices - not a crash.

But some cities could face a home price correction in 2023.

These are cities with:
1. Slow & slowing housing markets
2. Low & decelerating demand
3. High & accelerating supply