Bill Gates on what he learned from Buffett in 1996
"When you are with Warren, you can tell how much he loves his work. When he explains stuff, it’s never “Hey, I’m smart about this, I’m going to impress you.” It’s more like “This is so interesting and it’s actually very simple..
I’ll just explain it to you and you’ll realize how dumb it was that it took me a long time to figure it out.”
And when he shares it with you, using his keen sense of humor to help make the point, it does seem simple."
"Whenever somebody says to me, “Meet so-and-so; he’s the smartest guy ever” my defenses go up. People overestimate the merit of that to which they’ve been exposed. So the fact that people called Warren Buffett unique didn’t impress me much.
I was extremely skeptical when my mother suggested I take a day away from work to meet him in 1991. What were he and I supposed to talk about, P/E ratios? I mean, spend all day with a guy who just picks stocks? Especially when there’s lots of work to do? Are you kidding?"
"Warren and I began talking about how the newspaper business was being changed by the arrival of retailers who did less advertising.
Then he started asking me about IBM: “If you were building IBM from scratch, how would it look different? What are the growth businesses for IBM?
He asked good questions and told educational stories. There’s nothing I like so much as learning, and I had never met anyone who thought about business in such a clear way."
"He introduced me to an intriguing analytic exercise.
He’ll choose a year—say, 1970—and examine the ten highest market-capitalization companies from around then. Then he’ll go forward to 1990 and look at how those companies fared. His enthusiasm for the exercise was contagious."
"Warren and I have the most fun when we’re taking the same data that everybody else has and coming up with new ways of looking at them that are both novel and, in a sense, obvious."
"One habit of Warren’s that I admire is that he keeps his schedule free of meetings. He’s good at saying no to things. He knows what he likes to do. He likes to sit in his office and read and think. There are a few things he’ll do beyond that, but not many."
"Warren stays away from technology companies because he likes investments in which he can predict winners a decade in advance—an almost impossible feat when it comes to technology.
Unfortunately for Warren, the world of technology knows no boundaries."
"Being good with numbers doesn’t necessarily correlate with being a good investor. Warren doesn’t outperform other investors because he computes odds better. He doesn’t invest—take a swing of the bat—unless the opportunity appears unbelievably good."
"I think his dietary practices—lots of burgers and Cokes—are excellent. In short, I’m a fan."
Yeah, ok sure😂
"Al Rappaport spoke about 3 things that have become central to my work:
1: It’s all about cash — not accounting numbers.
2: Valuation and competitive strategy have to be considered together.
3: The market provides a useful signal for managers.
"Most investors act as if their task is to figure out a stock’s value and then to compare that value to the price. Our approach reverses this mindset. We start with the only thing we know for sure - the price - and then assess what must happen to realize an attractive return."
"Determine what expectations are currently priced in. How well do key value drivers have to perform?
Buy, sell, or hold based on the difference between the stock price and expected value. We develop a specific framework, which we call the “expectations infrastructure."
Excited to share my conversation with @scmallaby who shared his research process and insights on legendary investors.
“The key was to do an unreasonable amount of preparation work. It shows that you're serious and not wasting people's time by asking obvious questions.”
“What you really want to know is their thought process around an important or interesting trade. How did they make the call? How did they develop conviction? How did they hold on during the inevitable hiccups and adversity? It's that reconstruction of the case study.”
“I often show up with very detailed notes and a timeline. I'm able to say that, ‘I know from your letter that in this month you made a profit on dollar/yen. Dollar/yen had a big move on the 15th and 16th of that month. I really tried to kind of prompt them as much as possible.”
We all accumulate stuff, ideas, positions. Clutter accumulates on our bookshelves and calendars, in our portfolios and minds.
To be open for the new, we have to create empty space. Or risk being forced into a clean slate by an increasing disconnect from reality.
“If Berkshire has made modest progress, a good deal of it is because Warren and I are very good at destroying our own best-loved ideas. Any year that you don’t destroy one of your best-loved ideas is probably a wasted year.” -Charlie Munger
.@cdixon wrote about the hill climbing problem: to reach the highest peak without visibility requires some randomness in order to avoid getting stuck on a lower hill.
Getting to better ideas requires slack and time for exploration, lest we settle for 'good enough.'
"I sometimes will say, not facetiously, that people think I write books about trading, but they’re really books about psychology."
"I often say if I was asked, you can give advice to traders, but you could only use ten words. I know what those 10 words would be. It’s a sentence that Bruce Kovner said, and he said, “I know where I’m getting out before I get in.” Or know when you get out before you get in."
More Money Than God by @scmallaby is the best book to understand history of hedge funds - and therefore a lot of the participants and styles in public markets today.
The footnotes alone are worth the price.
“Rarely do portfolio managers articulate why they are successful. Sometimes they try to do so but are wrong. I have worked with hundreds of PMs and found that articulating why they are successful is quite difficult for them—although often they are not aware that it is.”
“Trading can be intuitive. We are looking at so many factors in the markets [that] a lot of our analysis operates on a subconscious level. All of a sudden you just know this is the right trade. If somebody really quizzed you, you probably couldn’t clearly articulate your views...
"As people are educated in a more and more homogeneous way, the gains to specificity and accuracy that you enjoy, and the gains to certainty, are offset in a way because everybody shares the same blind spots."
"this role of jester, the one person allowed to insult the king as a necessary corrective. There seems also to be an evolutionary mechanism, where we accept that you can say things in a funny way and the social response to that has to be different to if they are said seriously."
“If you want to tell people the truth, you’d better make them laugh or they’ll kill you”