In this thread, I’m collecting some of the good threads today from experts on the potential significance and implications of the new variant. Outstanding to see so much sharing of quality science, perspective on @Twitter
🧵Thread: What lessons should the U.S. and world learn from the rising Covid cases in parts of Europe, and especially the recent surge in a highly vaccinated country like Germany; and what risks and cautions could Germany's recent experience foretell for the U.S.? (1/12)
It's hard to fully explain Germany’s Covid surge. Here @celinegounder brings her usual great data and perspective; including: Germany has high vax rates with effective vaccines. But there are also distinctions between U.S. and Germany worth consideration
While Germany has high vax rate (67% fully vaxxed) it's concentrated among older individuals, and little coverage among kids. So, it has big pockets of low coverge. Germany has not authorized vax for under 11, and only authorized 12-17 in Aug when Delta first started to tick up
THREAD: If a legacy of Covid is vaccines and vaccine mandates (which existed well before Covid) become another issue dividing us politically and culturally, the consequences will be durable, profound; we could see vaccination rates decline if this becomes another political wedge
For Covid we should set a goal and then decide what policies best achieve that goal with the least acrimony. We’re at ~78% of adults with at least one dose. A reasonable goal may be to reach 85%. Most will complete the two dose series. If 85% is the target what will get us there?
Mandates should be local whenever possible. Some federal mandates make sense: federal employees, DoD, healthcare workers. Even requirements on Medicare plans to achieve higher coverage in their populations. But mandate on private business is the one that will create most division
THREAD: My book, “Uncontrolled Spread,” debuts today. It aims to shed new light on systemic woes and mistakes that left U.S. excessively vulnerable to Covid and how we make sure this never happens again. I owe deep gratitude to many people who helped bring this book to completion
I provide new details on what went wrong at the agency level to leave the U.S. excessively vulnerable to this threat, relate newly revealed stories, and offer a roadmap for how we can reform our systems to make sure that a future pandemic strain can never hit us this hard.
I want to thank the more than 100 people I interviewed for this book; the many experts who read the manuscript; hundreds of reporters, scientists, researchers whose work I reference; and especially my former colleagues at FDA and HHS who provided key insights throughout my effort
THREAD: My latest article in @TheAtlantic on the Covid endgame: “How Endemic COVID Becomes a Manageable Risk” -
Businesses and schools must adapt, because the dual threat from the coronavirus and the flu will be too severe. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Covid will become endemic. I write that a big challenge will be adapting work and leisure activities to turn an omnipresent virus into a manageable risk; and seeing whether enough Americans can reach a political consensus on the practical and cultural changes that it will require
The current pandemic has become a source of political division; decisions about how to handle it have been evaluated through that prism. But the political coloring of disease-fighting precautions may fade as it becomes a forever problem, and requires a sustainable long-term plan.
THREAD: Delta is highly contagious and hard to control. With more schools reopening in northeast, we must double down on efforts to prevent outbreaks. A missed opportunity is use of routine screening tests to identify outbreaks, avoid quarantines. Here's how to leverage testing:
First, the opportunity: The feds made available $10 billion from the American Rescue Plan to ramp up screening testing to help schools reopen and provided new guidance on asymptomatic screening testing in schools, workplaces, and congregate settings. hhs.gov/about/news/202…
Most school reopen plans focus on looking for kids with Covid symptoms. Yet research shows symptom screening alone won't enable schools to contain outbreaks. 40% of cases may be asymptomatic; 50% transmission occur from asymptomatic persons. Testing is key nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
THREAD: Lack of a crisis-proof clinical trial infrastructure left US unable to quickly establish which treatments were effective against Covid and equally important, debunk myths that emerged around drugs offering no benefit or causing harm. My JAMA latest jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-…
Too much of the early research during the pandemic came from constructs that were never going to yield actionable results. We missed an opportunity early on to field the kinds of practical studies that could be completed in the setting of a crisis but still generate firm evidence
British researchers proved through RECOVERY trial the value of having more central organization around conduct of research in the setting of a public health crisis, as well as virtue of practical trial designs that are more easily enrolled and completed in an emergency setting.