Drew Holden Profile picture
Nov 26, 2021 20 tweets 8 min read Read on X
What Frum does here is a good representation of what the Russian Collusion narrative has always been and continues to be: huge allegations drawn from smoke without any actual evidence of fire.

🧵breaking down this piece.⤵️
Before we get to Frum’s points, it’s important to remember what this debate is about. Dems & media insisted that Trump worked w/ our enemies to influence an election.

You’ll remember that an extensive investigation already failed to find evidence of this. americanbar.org/news/abanews/a…
But suspending disbelief, let’s get to the case.

First, we’ve got Trump’s pre-existing, publicly known business ties to Russia. There are a lot of them.

While we should be conscientious of who the leader of the free world owes, this isn’t, of course, evidence of wrongdoing. ImageImage
The next two points are also important pieces of context: Russia wanted Clinton to look bad, and Trump’s team knew that.

Again, inferential, but obviously not evidence of Trump having done what has been alleged. ImageImage
I want to pause here to remind folks what had been alleged. Dems + the corporate press advanced a theory that Trump was a Russian stooge, perhaps had been one since the 80s, and was actively working with them to steal an election.

We’ll come back to this, because it’s important. ImageImageImageImage
Anyway, into the meat of the allegations. We get to the famous 2016 meeting. Much has been drawn from this interaction but as even Frum concludes: “[t]he Trump team did not obtain the dirt they’d hoped for.”

So the hunt for a smoking gun continues. Image
Next, Wikileaks. Frum provides compelling evidence that Wikileaks advanced a Russian misinfo operation.

If Trump were Wikileaks, this would surely be damning. Alas, Trump is not Wikileaks. So the Trump-specific search continues. Image
Next, again, we get back to the circumstantial: Trump & co denied Russian involvement in the election.

We’ve got really compelling evidence that Russia did try to influence the election (as has become habit).

But, again, rejecting that consensus isn’t collusion. Image
Now we get to Manafort. As has been made pretty clear, Manafort gave internal polling data to someone later IDed as a Russian intel asset.

But does this amount to collusion? Mueller (and I would argue common sense) says no. We aren’t given explanation here for why it could be. Image
Next, my personal favorite: somehow, Trump handling foreign policy differently than Frum would like is evidence of collusion, because Trump didn’t like NATO or Germany but liked Brexit.

Hard to call that a smoking gun. Image
And, finally, we get to the lying by Trump and others about all of this stuff.

Again, not good! But lying - even to Congress or the FBI or whomever - does not constitute collusion. Image
Do these stories add up to something? Sure! There’s smoke here. Trump & co did bad things, often out in the open, often tied to Russia.

But do they actually add up to our original claims? No. It doesn’t even come close.

Again: we’ve known this since the Mueller Report.
But because a) that conclusion is inconvenient for those who have pushed this story as the foundational myth of Trump for years and, in fairness, b) there is obviously smoke here, the narrative persists.

But the entire case is just an emotionally laden bait-and-switch.
Frum almost seems to get there himself in this piece. He throws “criminal” out as a qualifier, but this is is again a sleight-of-hand trick.

The press narrative & Dem allegations weren’t that Trump was bad on Russia: it was that he had done something horrible & impeachable. Image
But Frum’s point about cooperation is *precisely* where his argument is wrong. Mueller never found the causality that Frum implies. That’s the conclusion of the Mueller report!

That cooperation - working together - is exactly what’s been missing. Image
Can a reasonable person read these inferences & agree w/ Frum about what they think probably happened? Sure. But this narrative has always been advanced as something indisputable because lots of people shared Frum’s belief that surely the worst parts didn’t make it onto the page.
And it’s worth pointing out that, when people criticize “Russian Collusion,” it also includes the many outlandish claims made by media and Dems - the pee tape, Steele, the idea that Trump was a Manchurian candidate installed by Putin.

These were all common allegations. ImageImageImageImage
So when people - myself included - talk about a “Russia hoax,” that’s it.

The media (including Frum) & Dems constructed a narrative to remove a POTUS but, even spending millions of dollars & upending the gov’t, they couldn’t actually substantiate it.

Yet they keep repeating it. Image
Frum’s contention is that too many media types are helping Trump b/c they are insufficiently aware of how bad Trump is.

But this is the same category of error as the Russia hoax. It begins from a belief - Trump is bad - and works backward to build a case w/ whatever is on hand.
This is the “journalism” of a witch hunt, not an investigation, which had been the beating heart of the Russia hoax all along, and the thing (I think) that offends so many of its present critics across the political spectrum.

It’s certainly what offends me, anyway.

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More from @DrewHolden360

Feb 6
Having worked on the Hill I get the ubiquity of Politico Pro and its cost.

But I think it takes an enormous suspension of disbelief to call it a conspiracy theory to look askance at the millions of dollars the Biden admin paid the paper that ran this hatchet job on his opponent. Image
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Which, to be clear, is exactly what outlets like @CNN are doing. Image
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@CNN This from @axios seems particularly unreasonable.

It isn’t a “fake theory” to say that Politico is “funded by the government.” It is, to the tune of $8 million. That isn’t in dispute. Image
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Read 5 tweets
Jan 25
Quick 🧵 revisiting corporate media claims on the Covid lab leak theory then (a “conspiracy theory,” “misinformation,” etc.) vs. now (“okay the CIA even admits it”).

@nytimes then // @nytimes now Image
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@washingtonpost then // now Image
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@USATODAY then // now Image
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Read 14 tweets
Jan 25
Okay quick 🧵 on the bogus claims that ICE went into a school in Chicago to deport students. Starting with @GovPritzker

More ⤵️ Image
@RepMikeQuigley why are you promoting misinformation? Image
@chicagotribune why are you deceiving your readers? Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 23
🧵Thread🧵

Trump’s return to the Oval Office has me reflecting on some of the worst “journalism” during his first term.

Of that long list, one in particular jumps out: the corporate press hype around the Steele dossier.

Do you *really* remember how bad it was? Follow along. ⤵️
Before I dive in, would really encourage you to read my full piece at @Holden_Court, because there’s too much to fit in a thread.

That said, surely you remember the dossier, a bunch of dramatic claims about Trump that even @nytimes now calls “discredited” open.substack.com/pub/drewholden…Image
But before that, there was the hype: the hero worship of Christopher Steele, the spy who was going to save American from Trump, the Russian puppet.

I mean, @washingtonpost put “hero” right in the title.

The rest of the piece is worse. WaPo repeats the claims — that the Russians had kompromat on him for engaging with prostitutes! Maybe Trump was compromised — verbatim without mentioning in the first instance that there’s no evidence these claims are true! Look at the highlights.

An unthinkable breach of journalistic ethics. There was plenty more.Image
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Read 23 tweets
Jan 20
🧵Thread🧵

Do you remember the media meltdown over Trump’s pardons? As Biden hands out decades-long passes to his family and friends, that concern is nowhere to be seen.

Biden no doubt wants you to forget this outrage in the glow of the inaugural.

Don’t. Screenshots help. ⤵️
When Trump announced pardons late in his first term, @nytimes said it “showed his willingness to use his power aggressively on behalf of loyalists” to “override courts, juries and prosecutors to apply his own standard of justice for his allies.” Image
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When Biden did the same thing, @nytimes said he was using his “power to protect people targeted by…Trump” to “head off politically driven prosecutions.”

A little different, huh? Image
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Read 28 tweets
Jan 14
To commemorate this tragic news, a quick 🧵thread 🧵of some of my favorite Jennifer Rubin tweets.

She will be missed. See why. ⤵️
My favorite: Andrew Cuomo defender and reply guy Rubin.

These are real tweets. She’s commenting on the spaghetti. Image
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Hard to square the circle here, in retrospect. Image
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Read 15 tweets

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