1/7
After 4-5 decades of wage stagnation, I think it definitely makes sense that Washington try to strengthen the bargaining position of American workers. Not only would this reverse the huge imbalance of the past few decades, in which...
wsj.com/articles/biden… via @WSJ
2/7
a very small elite captured nearly all of the productivity gains made by American workers and the middle classes, but it will also encourage business investment by increasing sustainable domestic demand. i.e. without underpinning it with soaring household debt.
3/7
It would also incentivize American businesses to invest in boosting labor productivity, which in the end is the only sustainable way to increase income.
4/7
But we should remember that in out hyper-globalized world, international competitiveness is achieved mainly by directly or indirectly lowering wages.
5/7
This means that unless the global trade and capital regime is radically reformed, much of the benefits of higher wages in then US will accrue to countries that continue to suppress domestic household income.
6/7
This means that part of the global increase in demand driven by higher US wages will be lost as countries with lower wages relative to their productivity levels take market share away from countries with higher wages relative to their productivity levels.
7/7
We should want to expand global trade, but we should limit this expansion to countries that balance their contribution to global demand with their absorption of global demand. It is the whole world, and not just the US, that would benefit from higher wages.
The beginning of external rebalancing? It will matter a great deal how business investment reacts.
edition.cnn.com/2021/11/25/eco…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Michael Pettis

Michael Pettis Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @michaelxpettis

28 Nov
1/10
I just read – a little late – this very good essay by Yakov Feygin (@BuddyYakov) in memory of Janos Kornai, who died last month. Most people when they think of Kornai think about hard and soft budget constraints, just like most...
building-a-ruin.ghost.io/in-memory-of-j…
2/10
people think of the financial instability hypothesis when they think of Hyman Minsky, but what strikes me as most important about Minsky and Kornai is something they seemed to have had in common: an extremely nuanced understanding...
3/10
of an economy as a system of institutions that embed self-reinforcing and self-dissipating mechanisms of various strengths and which, under certain conditions, can create deep and systematic distortions in their economic behaviors.
Read 10 tweets
26 Nov
1/4
The State Council has warned that "it is necessary to strengthen the oversight for local government debt to ensure that funds are used to expand domestic demand and promote consumption."
scmp.com/economy/china-… via @scmpnews
2/4
This makes a lot of sense – as I have argued for years, sustainable domestic demand requires that local government spending be used increasingly to support household income and domestic consumption rather than more non-productive investment.
3/4
But this is likely to be much easier said than done. Over 40 years China has built a substantial system of institutions that transfer revenues towards large investment projects, along with a powerful set of vested interests that benefit from these transfers.
Read 4 tweets
26 Nov
1/7
The Chinese challenge to US scientific and technological superiority, and the US response, may end up greatly benefitting the world. The question for China is its sustainability, especially as its GDP growth starts to drop rapidly.
scmp.com/tech/policy/ar… via @scmpnews
2/7
I'd argue that the key is the mix of political and economic institutions that are best suited to make technological innovation commercially sustainable. Highly centralized systems can very be very efficient at achieving clear goals, like building needed infrastructure or...
3/7
restricting population growth. They are certainly capable too of tremendous advances in politically-directed areas of science (e.g. Germany in the 1930s, the USSR in the 1960s and 1970s). So far, however, the most successful high-tech economies seem to succeed...
Read 8 tweets
25 Nov
1/4
His logic seems pretty tight: "Liu Shengjun, head of the China Financial Reform Institute, said the property tax was likely to encounter strong opposition from local governments, which could lead to the proposal being delayed or even shelved."
scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/4
He continues: "Local governments have limited sources of revenue other than land sales and are likely to either reject the idea of a property tax or recommend a high tax rate to boost their coffers.
3/4
His conclusion? “Under either of these scenarios, local residents will be the victim.” Whether local residents pay in the form of alternative taxes or a reduction in services, in other words, they won't benefit.

But there are other possibilities, although none is easy.
Read 4 tweets
25 Nov
1/5
Reuters: "China's vice commerce minister Ren Hongbin said on Wednesday there are still many concerns for foreign trade, especially for struggling smaller exporters, and China will introduce a new round of measures to stabilise it in due course."
reuters.com/world/china/ch…
2/5
China's exports have surged in the past year, and it has been running the highest monthly trade surpluses in its history, and yet Beijing is still concerned about struggling exporters.
3/5
"Measures to stabilize trade" is usually a euphemism for additional indirect export subsidies, and so we should probably expect tax cuts, further spending on logistics and so on to increase export competitiveness, ultimately to be paid for by the household sector.
Read 5 tweets
24 Nov
1/10
I haven't read their report, but if this article correctly summarizes it, I half agree with their 5.5% 2022 GDP growth forecast for China. I've said almost since the beginning of this year that Beijing would probably choose...
yicaiglobal.com/news/china-gdp…
2/10
a 5.5% GDP growth target in 2022, but whereas they seems to think that this is because deleveraging this year will "lay the foundation for high-quality economic growth" next year, I would argue that it is almost the opposite.
3/10
From early this year, because of a partial reversal of last year's contraction in consumption, I expected GDP growth to come in between 6% and 8%, depending on how seriously they took deleveraging (they expected 8.7%).
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(