1/10
I just read – a little late – this very good essay by Yakov Feygin (@BuddyYakov) in memory of Janos Kornai, who died last month. Most people when they think of Kornai think about hard and soft budget constraints, just like most...
building-a-ruin.ghost.io/in-memory-of-j…
2/10
people think of the financial instability hypothesis when they think of Hyman Minsky, but what strikes me as most important about Minsky and Kornai is something they seemed to have had in common: an extremely nuanced understanding...
3/10
of an economy as a system of institutions that embed self-reinforcing and self-dissipating mechanisms of various strengths and which, under certain conditions, can create deep and systematic distortions in their economic behaviors.
4/10
“Kornai argued that we should approach the economy as a set of feedback loops,” Feygin points out, “which essentially were set by institutions.” Similarly Minsky argued that all economic institutions – individual households to global trading blocs – are effectively “banks”.
5/10
As a bank each has its own balance sheet, and it is the ways in which assets and liabilities on each balance sheet are matched (or mismatched) for each individual entity and across all economic entities that largely determine the overall behavior of the economy.
6/10
For Kornai and Minsky, in other words, economic imbalances or soaring debt aren't accidental, or the result of poor planning, or caused by "bad" agents, but rather are embedded in the structure of economic institutions.
7/10
As a result both Kornai and Minsky lead us away from classical economics towards an institutional economics, or political economy, in which we must recognize explicitly the institutional constraints that push that economy towards specific types of imbalances.
8/10
In my PKU seminar this week, for example, we discussed why American banks in the 2000s and Chinese property developers in the past decade engaged in such economically destructive behavior. It is easy to blame greed, but there were deeper reasons that drove this behavior.
9/10
Among other things this makes it meaningless to discuss how an economy “must” or "can" rebalance towards a more stable or sustainable equilibrium without recognizing the institutional changes that must also take place.
10/10
As an aside it is probably no coincidence that another of my favorite economists, Albert Hirschman, had a very similar institutionalist approach, even if – perhaps because he distrusted systematizing – he didn’t lay it out it as systematically as Minsky and Kornai did.
I've already mentioned @M_C_Klein's piece on Kornai before, but for those who are interested, I'll recommend it again.
theovershoot.co/p/kornai-keyne…

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More from @michaelxpettis

27 Nov
1/7
After 4-5 decades of wage stagnation, I think it definitely makes sense that Washington try to strengthen the bargaining position of American workers. Not only would this reverse the huge imbalance of the past few decades, in which...
wsj.com/articles/biden… via @WSJ
2/7
a very small elite captured nearly all of the productivity gains made by American workers and the middle classes, but it will also encourage business investment by increasing sustainable domestic demand. i.e. without underpinning it with soaring household debt.
3/7
It would also incentivize American businesses to invest in boosting labor productivity, which in the end is the only sustainable way to increase income.
Read 8 tweets
26 Nov
1/4
The State Council has warned that "it is necessary to strengthen the oversight for local government debt to ensure that funds are used to expand domestic demand and promote consumption."
scmp.com/economy/china-… via @scmpnews
2/4
This makes a lot of sense – as I have argued for years, sustainable domestic demand requires that local government spending be used increasingly to support household income and domestic consumption rather than more non-productive investment.
3/4
But this is likely to be much easier said than done. Over 40 years China has built a substantial system of institutions that transfer revenues towards large investment projects, along with a powerful set of vested interests that benefit from these transfers.
Read 4 tweets
26 Nov
1/7
The Chinese challenge to US scientific and technological superiority, and the US response, may end up greatly benefitting the world. The question for China is its sustainability, especially as its GDP growth starts to drop rapidly.
scmp.com/tech/policy/ar… via @scmpnews
2/7
I'd argue that the key is the mix of political and economic institutions that are best suited to make technological innovation commercially sustainable. Highly centralized systems can very be very efficient at achieving clear goals, like building needed infrastructure or...
3/7
restricting population growth. They are certainly capable too of tremendous advances in politically-directed areas of science (e.g. Germany in the 1930s, the USSR in the 1960s and 1970s). So far, however, the most successful high-tech economies seem to succeed...
Read 8 tweets
25 Nov
1/4
His logic seems pretty tight: "Liu Shengjun, head of the China Financial Reform Institute, said the property tax was likely to encounter strong opposition from local governments, which could lead to the proposal being delayed or even shelved."
scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/4
He continues: "Local governments have limited sources of revenue other than land sales and are likely to either reject the idea of a property tax or recommend a high tax rate to boost their coffers.
3/4
His conclusion? “Under either of these scenarios, local residents will be the victim.” Whether local residents pay in the form of alternative taxes or a reduction in services, in other words, they won't benefit.

But there are other possibilities, although none is easy.
Read 4 tweets
25 Nov
1/5
Reuters: "China's vice commerce minister Ren Hongbin said on Wednesday there are still many concerns for foreign trade, especially for struggling smaller exporters, and China will introduce a new round of measures to stabilise it in due course."
reuters.com/world/china/ch…
2/5
China's exports have surged in the past year, and it has been running the highest monthly trade surpluses in its history, and yet Beijing is still concerned about struggling exporters.
3/5
"Measures to stabilize trade" is usually a euphemism for additional indirect export subsidies, and so we should probably expect tax cuts, further spending on logistics and so on to increase export competitiveness, ultimately to be paid for by the household sector.
Read 5 tweets
24 Nov
1/10
I haven't read their report, but if this article correctly summarizes it, I half agree with their 5.5% 2022 GDP growth forecast for China. I've said almost since the beginning of this year that Beijing would probably choose...
yicaiglobal.com/news/china-gdp…
2/10
a 5.5% GDP growth target in 2022, but whereas they seems to think that this is because deleveraging this year will "lay the foundation for high-quality economic growth" next year, I would argue that it is almost the opposite.
3/10
From early this year, because of a partial reversal of last year's contraction in consumption, I expected GDP growth to come in between 6% and 8%, depending on how seriously they took deleveraging (they expected 8.7%).
Read 10 tweets

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