The only reason why we do a valuation exercise at Zerodha every year is for our ESOP buyback.
I keep getting asked why are we valuing ourselves at
just $2Billion currently when smaller players are raising money at far higher valuations.
Here is why we're conservative👇 1/8
Some background: We don't promise ESOPs for anyone on our team. Frankly, we never thought we were building something that could become so valuable. So we never thought of ESOPs. But around 2017 when the business started growing, we created an ESOP scheme to share the success. 2/8
People who complete 1-year @zerodhaonline get ESOPs. This is to be sure if they are with us for the right reasons.
We tell everyone to think of the ESOP scheme as their retirement fund which will compound over the long term if we do well working together as a business. 3/8
All ESOPs come with 0 strike price (no cost) and top of the liquidity preference. Every year new ESOPs issued are > ESOPs bought back.
ESOP buyback is optional. We also have a loan scheme where our team can take loans at around bank FD rates against the vested ESOPs. 4/8
Our ESOP buyback is from the profits we carve out & not through external fundraising.
This is so that everyone can focus on profitability which improves the odds of us being sustainable & resilient in the long run. The ESOPs will then truly be a retirement fund for everyone. 5/8
I've been in the markets across multiple cycles to know that what happened last 18 months was an outlier. There is no easy money to be made in the markets in the long run. When the going gets tough, greed disappears & with that trading activity & volumes & inflated valuations 6/8
For eg., if the markets were to remain subdued for a few more weeks, activity for all capital market participants will be down by at least 30%. It doesn't matter even if the product is made in heaven. Our business is cyclical & highly correlated to the markets. 7/8
We want ESOPs to be like a low volatility retirement fund because this would probably be a large chunk of the networth for many on the team. Valuation ups & downs can be mentally taxing. Since we have no plans to raise external money, we thought ~15X PAT was a fair value. 8/8
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Unlike the previous bull runs, there isn't a lot of leverage in the system this time. Stocks are mostly bought with full money upfront. So when there are drawdowns in the market on days like today, retail investors aren't forced to liquidate, which also increases volatility. 1/4
Credit goes to SEBI & also all of us new-age online brokers who haven't pushed customers to borrow and buy while placing orders. If platforms enabled greed by nudging users to borrow to buy more quantities, customers would ignore the risks of margin funding (MTF). 2/4
But given high customer acquisition costs for many brokers, what worries me is if someone launches a buy now pay later type of product for investing, it will end up pushing everyone else to start. Using this as a hook to generate revenue will not be right for the customers. 3/4
Why not IPO @zerodhaonline when you can potentially get ridiculous valuations?
Firstly, we think an IPO is the beginning & not the end. As soon as you have lakhs of conservative retail investors on your cap table, the obligations go up exponentially. 1/4
We are in a world where companies are getting priced to perfection based on all the future growth potential. For a stock to do well, you have to outperform.
As CEO, I dread to think how you can outperform the already really high expectations that growth companies have today 2/4
We have never set revenue or growth targets, always believed that if we can do what is right for the customer & if goddess of luck smiles, the rest will happen. Our core team dreads moving away from that philosophy to be in a chase all the time, which it will be after an IPO 3/4
When you're candid in interviews, you run the risk of being quoted out of context with misleading headlines😬 One such headline was about the future of Zerodha, of us getting beaten by competition in 5 years. This was getting shared and a few people asked me about it. 1/4
I think when running a business or even trading, the odds of succeeding are much higher if you have made peace with the worst possible outcome. This has been one of my biggest life lessons. This helps me remain stoic and rational during volatility. 2/4
But this doesn’t mean we aren't competitive. We get up every day working to be better knowing that it will help our customers and maybe also help put distance on the competition. Most people think being aggressive & loud is being competitive, it isn't. 3/4
I am pessimistic about the valuations of brokerages around the world, including that of Zerodha. This is because the performance of broking is directly tied to market performance. If people aren’t making money or there is no greed, activity usually drops off a cliff. 1/4
The best tech, products & low pricing won't help.
A new report from JP Morgan on Robinhood (RH) said that app downloads are down by 78% QOQ and active users by 40% QOQ. And this is still a bull market, just that market has plateaued last few months. 2/4 zerohedge.com/markets/jp-mor…
For Robinhood, unlike Indian brokerages, Crypto is the wild card. If not the stock price would've collapsed on this data.
This old post about how it's much much tougher for Indian brokerages to make money compared to the US brokers still holds good. 3/4 zerodha.com/z-connect/rain…
I get asked often, who out there do you think can disrupt the new-age online brokers or even exchanges?
Me: I don’t think it will be another stock brokerage firm or a new stock exchange. It will most likely be an outsider, maybe Crypto. Here is why👇 1/6
In broking or exchange business, both on pricing and product, there is not much left to disrupt. Unless of course, someone figures a way to pay people money for trading (-ve brokerage😉not allowed by regulation) or figures a way to help all customers make money (😬very tough) 2/6
Brokers & exchanges depend on a small group of active traders, ~1million traders for revenue. If they start trading something else, that will disrupt everything. Btw, active traders also provide liquidity, reduce impact cost & risk, & help better price discovery. 3/6
Our focus at @RainmatterOrg is to help create green jobs, livelihoods & help preserve the environment using sustainable agri practices. In that journey, we're super delighted to join @madhuchandansc & @organicmandya on their mission to change farming & improve lives of farmers1/8
@organicmandya has helped create kitchen gardens with fruit tree saplings in 5,000+ homes. Through Sunday Santhes in Mandya, they're creating direct farmer to consumer relationships. 2/8 grove.rainmatter.org/t/announcement…
They are also providing free training at @organicmandya farms to 500-600 people a month to help them create livelihoods from small farms using organic farming methods. 3/8