Frederik Gieschen Profile picture
Nov 27, 2021 25 tweets 10 min read Read on X
Kirk Kerkorian is one of my favorite rags to riches stories. A high school dropout who built the largest casinos and nearly owned Chrysler. A shrewd and enthusiastic dealmaker with a chip on his shoulder.

“Life is a big craps game. I've got to tell you, it's all been fun.” Image
"When you're a self-made man you start very early in life. In my case it was at nine years old when I started bringing income into the family. You get a drive that's a little different, maybe a little stronger, than somebody who inherited." Image
Kerkorian was born in 1917 to Armenian immigrants in California. His father bought up ranches and became San Joaquin's 'raisin baron' before going bankrupt under a mountain of debt.

Kerkorian dropped out of school and worked odd jobs, he nearly became a professional boxer.
When a coworker took him to a flight school, Kerkorian found a lifelong passion.

During WW II, he flew Mosquito planes across the ocean for the British Air Force. It was dangerous work but allowed him to build a nest egg. Image
After the war, he made money by spotting value in army surplus planes. He bought, refurbished, and sold them, building up capital deal by deal.

He also made charter flights to Las Vegas and became a regular at the tables alongside his customers.
“We were just trying to eat in those days, and parlay what we did have into something better.”

“I had $10,000 to my name, a car, no home, a wife. I was 28 years old so I took the airplane and flew charters to Las Vegas and from there I got interested in the hotel business.” Image
He fell in love with Vegas: “I don’t think there is a sky here. You see the sun 95 percent of the time. You see the most beautiful hills.”

His first small investment in the Dunes casino was a bust. “I learned then not to invest in a business that I didn’t run.” Image
In 1962, he sold his regional airline to carmaker Studebaker for $1mm.

He invested the cash in a large plot of land. He bartered with owners of small nearby properties and connected his land to the strip. It became the prime piece of property on which Caesar's Palace was built. Image
He turned $1mm into $9mm and also bought back his company - turns out Studebaker knew nothing about running an airline.

Flush with cash he was ready for his big move: He was going to build the city's biggest hotel, the International with a thousand rooms. ImageImage
Kerkorian was on a roll. He sold his airline again and took a stake in a public carrier. He also bought into the struggling MGM studio.

And his International was a big success. On paper he was worth $180mm. But he was heavily leveraged and all his cash was tied up. Image
Kerkorian had used bridge financing from European banks. He planned to sell stock in the International to raise cash.

But his voice appeared on tape at the trial of a prominent mobster. Kerkorian called it the settlement of gambling debt. The SEC blocked his public stock sale.
The International’s stock plummeted from $65 to $6.50. And Kerkorian was forced to sell control to patient money - the Hilton family. The International became the Las Vegas Hilton. Kerkorian had learned an expensive lesson. Image
“We have built the number one hotel in the world. It was an excellent enterprise, I have no regrets.”

He had still cashed out some $50mm and was ready for the next play: MGM. Image
The money-losing studio had an extensive library of films and real estate. Kerkorian saw $69 of value vs. a $25 share price. He acquired a controlling stake.

The turnaround was a yard sale of movie memorabilia. Kerkorian was called a “one man wrecking crew" as he slashed costs. Image
He stopped the bleeding but the studio didn't flourish.

His real angle were its "three golden letters." He used the brand and Hollywood ambience for his next iteration of Vegas's biggest hotel: the MGM Grand. Image
The casino was another success and he split it from the studio.

It was also the site of Vegas's deadliest fire in 1980. Kerkorian later sold it to Bally's and built today's MGM Grand in 1993. ImageImage
He merged MGM with the United Artists studio but the business still wasn't thriving. It was time to monetize.

He knew Ted Turner desperately wanted a library to fees his new cable channels. Kerkorian told him he could lock up MGM - if he committed within 2 weeks. Image
Turner was hooked. Milken's Drexel was to line up the financing. Kerkorian would buy back the UA studio to make deal feasible.

But MGM's movies were flopping and Drexel couldn't sell the debt. Turner Broadcasting was going to be too levered. And he was locked into the deal. ImageImage
They renegotiated and reduced the cash portion. Kerkorian got 14% yielding preferred stock instead. Dividend payable in cash or common stock.

The sale went through and Turner was starting to sweat. Kerkorian was going to accumulate voting stock over time through the dividends.
Turner called up John Malone: “You’ve got to do something or CNN will become KNN, Kerkorian News Network!” Malone and other cable operators injected cash. And Kerkorian bought back the studio, leaving Turner with just the library. Image
Kirk then sold the studio to Giancarlo Parretti for $1.4bn and bought it back when Parretti went bankrupt. In 2004, it went to Sony for good for $4bn.

In the 1990s, Kirk also made a big bet on the recovering Chrysler and earned $2.7bn in profits Image
When Steve Wynn struggled in 2000, Kirk bought his Mirage Resorts. And later the Mandalay Bay.

“Life will be good in Kirkville,” Wynn joked. Kerkorian, the onetime dropout, now towered over the strip. ImageImageImage
But Kerkorian never stopped playing and his net worth was decimated during the financial crisis. He passed away in 2015 at the age of 98.

I love his story for his enthusiasm and his resilience. He was an outsider who bested the naysayers. Image
He rode the big wave in American leisure spending and expertly traded assets within his circle of competence. And he demonstrated both the value and danger of leverage. Image
I wrote about his story here:
neckar.substack.com/p/kirk-kerkori…
And here:
neckar.substack.com/p/kirk-kerkori…

I'd also recommend his biography, The Gambler.

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More from @FrederikNeckar

Sep 28
Nobody explains meditation like Seinfeld.

"It's like you have a cell phone and then somebody gives you the charger. Oh, I can get this thing up to a hundred anytime I want?!

"It doesn't feel like anything. Doesn't do anything. I don't get it. I don't understand it. But here's the difference: at 1pm that day, my head does not hit the desk like it used to. ... I sail through the day."
"The way I look at life, basically is it's exhausting. Being busy is exhausting. Doing nothing is exhausting. No matter what you do, it's exhausting.

Sleep is hit and miss, [transcendental meditation] is not. It's this thing that augments your need for rest.

"I would always say to the people that don't do it, I can't believe you stay up all day."
"A lot of stand up is analogies.
The phone charger is pretty tough to beat as an analogy because your phone charger never doesn't work.

And that's the great thing about TM. You never have to wonder. That's the big difference between sleep and TM. TM never doesn't work perfect."
Read 6 tweets
Oct 25, 2023
What are your favorite pieces with reflections on investment success and failure or lessons from decades in markets?

A few that come to mind:
Mark Sellers: So You Want To Be The Next Warren Buffett? How is Your Writing?

"If your competitors know your secret and yet still can't copy it, that's a structural advantage. That's a moat."

"Trait #1 is the ability to buy stocks while others are panicking and sell stocks while others are euphoric.

When 1999 comes around and the market is going up almost every day, you can't bring yourself to sell because if you do, you may fall behind your peers."
Read 11 tweets
Sep 29, 2023
Very interesting new paper by @mjmauboussin on the corporate lifecycle.

Rather than go by age or size, the framework ties life cycle to cash flows.

Stages: Introduction > Growth > Maturity > Shake-out >Decline.

Roughly: Investing -> returning capital -> liquidating assets.
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Unexpected:
"We expected low or negative spreads between ROIC and WACC for companies newly listed, rising spreads as they mature, a decline in senescence.

What we found was nearly the opposite. The spread at the date of the IPO was high and narrowed before stabilizing."
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Companies going public (selling equity to new investors) when return on capital looks most attractive (and is about to decline)?

Returns to shareholders on the other hand were most attractive for more mature companies.
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Read 6 tweets
Jun 9, 2023
Druckenmiller: "I am so tired of being a bear, and being labeled a bear."

But: Liquidity ⬇️
"Since it's taken so long, the Fed has ended up with a higher terminal rate. Inflation gets stickier the longer its in the system. That increases the probability of a hard landing." Image
"We always short the same way. ... I try and think of a situation 12 to 18 months from now and if I think the security prices are going to be less, I short.

Frankly, I'm not sure I've ever made money in shorts. I like it. It's fun, but you can get your head handed to you."
"When I was at Soros, I shorted $200 million worth of Internet stocks in March of 99. And in three weeks covered them at a $600 million loss. I lost $600 million on a $200 million investment in three weeks.

I was short 12 stocks. They all went bankrupt Every one of them."
Read 6 tweets
Jun 8, 2023
ROIC and margins for companies with different moats by @mjmauboussin ImageImage
"A company creates value when its ROIC is in excess of cost of capital. Stated differently, it makes a dollar worth of investment worth more than a dollar in market value.

The market broadly appreciates this, especially when growth is considered as an additional variable."
"Markets are akin to an ecosystem where investors fill various niches. Investors with a short-term horizon tend to focus on near-term metrics such as sales and earnings.

Investors with a long-term horizon focus on competitive advantage and the size of the market opportunity."
Read 5 tweets
May 24, 2023
Like other great investors, Sam Zell used content as a form of leverage. His "guide to the risky art of resurrecting dead properties" earned him his nickname, the Grave Dancer. Image
"Some might see buying and creating value from others’ mistakes as a form of exploitation, but I see it as giving neglected or devalued assets new life.

Often in my career I’ve been the only bidder for them—the last chance for a resurrection."
"I’m not claiming to be altruistic— just optimistic, and confident that I can turn those assets around.

That, in my definition, is an entrepreneur. Someone who doesn’t just see the problems but also sees the solutions—the opportunities."
Read 10 tweets

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