1/ "About three-quarters of global semiconductor production capacity sits in just four Asian locations: Taiwan, South Korea, China and Japan, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. The U.S. represents just 13%." wsj.com/articles/more-… Image
2/ Exponential growth bias (EGB) is the tendency of people to perceive a growth process as linear when, in fact, it is exponential."

Demand for chips is experiencing a nonlinear increase while the world is trying to catch up. It's like trying to catch up with a moving train.
3/ As you know, "tiny balls of tin, about 30 microns wide are blasted twice by the world's most powerful carbon dioxide lasers. The first blast "gets it ready" and the second, stronger pulse turns it into a plasma which is 400,000 degrees Fahrenheit." cnbc.com/amp/2021/11/24…
4/ •Software is a gas - it expands to fit the container it is in
•Software grows until it becomes limited by Moore’s Law

ACM, 1997 Image
5/ Thieves stole my truck once, but they only drove it until the gas tank was empty. The thieves were very practical apparently.

My truck was a Ford F-150 King Ranch SuperCrew  5.4 L 2V Triton Supercharged Intercooled V8 engine.

Not a daily driver. MPG was: don't ask. Image

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More from @trengriffin

27 Nov
In a business with:

1) a positive spread between return on invested capital and cost of capital, growth adds value.

2) a negative spread between return on invested capital and cost of capital, growth destroys value.

3) at zero spread, growth has no impact.

It depends.
"A company creates value when its investments earn a return higher than the opportunity cost of capital."

What is your opportunity cost of capital right now? If you can't write it down, you don't know what it is. The easiest person to fool is yourself.
"Corporate value = steady-state value + present value of growth opportunities (PVGO).

Note that if the return on incremental investment equals the cost of capital, the PVGO collapses to zero and
the value of the firm is simply the steady-state value." morganstanley.com/im/publication…
Read 4 tweets
27 Nov
1/ Gambling includes any activity involving chance with negative net present value after fees.

In the first nine months of the year, commercial casinos generated $38.67 billion. But there are many other forms of gambling. americangaming.org/resources/aga-… Image
2/ "Incomplete information and factors outside of our control make all our investment choices uncertain. We evaluate what we can, figure out what we think will maximize our investment money, and execute. Deciding not to invest or not to sell a stock is a bet.” Annie Duke Image
The future is a probability distribution. "The expected value from any activity is the product of the gains available from doing it right multiplied by the probability of doing it right, minus the potential cost of failing in the attempt multiplied by the probability of failing.”
Read 7 tweets
26 Nov
1/ “Paul Allen and myself, expecting the hobby market to expand, hired Monte Davidoff and developed Altair BASIC. Though the initial work took only two months, the three of us have spent most of the last year documenting, improving and adding features to BASIC." Altair Newsletter
2/ "Paul wrote the bootstrap loader on the plane. Everyone, including ourselves, was amazed when this BASIC worked the first time.  Many MITS employees who couldn’t comprehend what to do with an Altair saw the value of the computer for the first time.”
3/ "Our primary emphasis was on a fail-safe BASIC that would always indicate user error instead of crashing or producing the wrong result. Our software was going to be put in ROM where it couldn’t be updated. Our other major worry was that our simulator might be incorrect." BG
Read 6 tweets
24 Nov
"Accelerated use of air freight” to serve customers this holiday season is the new normal.

sports.yahoo.com/supply-chain-w…
"Rates to move goods in planes from Hong Kong to either North America or Europe rose to fresh records this week, as importers nervous about depleting holiday stockpiles decided to fly over bottlenecks on the ground."

Up and to the right! bloomberg.com/news/newslette… Image
Flying cargo is the new floating cargo.

COPENHAGEN - Denmark's A.P. Moller-Maersk said it will buy freight-forwarder Senator International along with two Boeing aircraft, the firm's latest move to boost its businesses beyond ocean shipping.
reuters.com/business/aeros…
Read 4 tweets
23 Nov
1/ "Investment can be explained with a 2×2 matrix. On one axis you can be right or wrong. In the other axis you can be consensus or non-consensus. If you’re wrong you don’t make money. The only to make outsized returns is by being right and non-consensus.”25iq.com/2016/10/28/why…
2/ "To achieve superior investment results, your insight into value has to be superior. Thus you must learn things others don’t, see things differently or do a better job of analyzing them – ideally all three.” You want the market to agree with you, but not right now. Eventually.
3/ Base rates help you understand historical experience. They are only used to calibrate a forecast intended to be non consensus and right. If all you had to do was know base rates to outperform a market, historians would be the best investors. You are searching for a mistake.
Read 4 tweets
20 Nov
1/ Humans often don't act independently. We simply don't have the time or resources to make every decision on our own. Nature has programmed humans to herd and fighting that instinct at the right time is a trained response you can get better at. Learning from mistakes helps.
2/ Humans herding can create feedback loops that can amplify like Jimmy Hendrix used feedback with his guitar. That feedback can be good or bad. Businesses work to create beneficial feedback loops. Investors work to spot businesses that create those feedback loops successfully.
3/ "Emergence" occurs when local behavior transforms into global phenomena disconnected from its origins. Unexpected things happen in complex systems. Cause and effect aren't simple to untangle ex post. The best response is to stay humble when making predictions. Weird happens.
Read 4 tweets

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