3 characteristics to ask about a variant. Is it more transmissible, more virulent, can it evade vaccines? Delta was 1st, not second two. We don’t know enough about omicron but this is a thread on polyclonal antibodies and B/T cell immunity from vax that makes 3rd more unlikely
And agree with Dr. Katz that the most important thing to understand is the degree of symptoms (illness) from a new variant: preliminary reports on more mild need verification, more study just like the risk stratification by age in COVID so important linkedin.com/pulse/omicron-…
We know from HIV how incredibly amazing S. Africa scientists, doctors/ epidemiologists are; careful work should be commended, not punished. So far "presents mild disease with symptoms being sore muscles and tiredness" (cough, smell, taste not prominent) wionews.com/world/covid-om…
More data and clarity to come on omicron but this is not March 2020 - so much more is known about the virus, we have so many more tools, and information is coming out quickly & in real time about the 3 properties we need to understand about a new variant.
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Omicron COVID variant was in Europe before South African detected & flagged for world. Agree with AztraZeneca -no evidence vax doesn't protect from severe disease with variants (AZ less profit oriented); 2) S. Africa scientists that they felt 'punished' cbsnews.com/news/omicron-v…
This is some of the immunology behind why vaccines likely to still be protective against variants:
And the 2-dose vaccines seem to protect against severe disease per BioNtech; if you want to avoid mild breakthrough, certainly get boosted. With an endemic virus, virus will likely be seen again in future after booster antibodies come down wsj.com/articles/omicr…
NU VARIANT (B.1.1.529) in South Africa & why unlikely to evade vaccine-induced immunity. So, what is this variant? Number 1, we don't know yet if it is more transmissible. Still being studied & described. 59 cases uploaded to database thenationalnews.com/coronavirus/20…
Okay, so what is a "variant" mean for COVID? Means mutations in spike protein that attaches the virus to the host cell: mutations that differ from the "ancestral strain". This is the bit of the virus that tends to mutate most (like H and N surface proteins of influenza). Also,
of the 8 vaccines approved by the WHO (Novavax will be added soon & will make the 9th), 6 of those 9 involve the spike protein in some way (either code for it with mRNA, DNA; Novavax is protein itself); 3 of the 9 are whole inactivated virions (Covaxin, Sinopharm, Sinovac)
DC has dropped its mask mandate. Why I and others think that - with an endemic virus - very justified to do this. Would recommend older people & immunocompromised get boosters & to mask indoors in mixed venues this winter if live in place with cases up washingtonpost.com/video/national…
Moreover, we are in unique situation in US where 1) highly vax'd places (like Bay Area) still have remaining mask mandates (except Marin, which is going by hospitalization data); 2) we are now finally acknowledging as public health community vax >>masks so let's motivate vax!
Finally, our group seeing 3 patterns worldwide where severe illness low: 1) high natural immunity (tragically gained, India); 2) high vax rate >75%; 3) lots of hybrid immunity (UK opened 7/19 in midst delta surge but with lots of vax). Maybe 3rd shot Covaxin? whole virus?
Poll: 74% of Americans Say Lives Have Returned to 'Normal' - very happy to see the confidence many in the US have in the vaccines, despite both 1) misinformation; 2) fearful messaging from some public health officials that they don't work well (they do!) medscape.com/viewarticle/96…
Mistaken messages on if vaccines reduce transmission (they do) and if vaccines are working during booster conversation (they do) eroded confidence in the vaccines
Cases used to track with hospitalizations but not now after vaccines- so we should now track hospitalizations to track the pandemic, not cases. Places with very high vax (80%), lots of natural immunity (sadly like India), hybrid immunity (UK) doing best
SCHOOL CLOSURES: Wow, think we should invest in emotional support for children instead of closing schools again after prolonged schools closures last year (that led to mental/emotional difficulty).
I gave talk in Pediatric Grand Rounds this am at UCSF which made me look more deeply at the history of school closures for infectious diseases in US. School closures were ALWAYS last resort & only happened for raging infections (esp those worse for kids than adults like measles)
In influenza pandemic of 1918 (encourage you to read this article), schools were not closed in NYC (& Chicago/ New Haven) because progressive cities (we really changed!) & out of 1 million children, 750K were not from affluent families; schools place for food, safety, learning
Protective immunity after recovery from SARS-CoV-2 infection - an important review in Lancet ID about protection from repeat infection after prior infection vs vaccination. Immunologic review AND review of re-infection studies thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
#1. Developing illness is what all doctors are sworn to prevent so there is rarely advocacy for natural infection but this is what happens if natural infection occurs. Strongest immunologic evidence for enduring immunity, T cells from Science study here: science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
And 2nd amazing paper showing that your B cells will adapt antibodies if they see a variant in the future to the variant in front of them is here (we have discussed this and the above paper in T & B cell threads if you search them) science.org/doi/epdf/10.11…