Thread. We consider the question. Why regulators in USA are not acting to eradicate the cryptocurrency and NFT pandemic? In other countries they have already taken action.
The answer is as always complicated because everything in Western World has become so complicated there may be no answers to even basic questions: Complexity has increased beyond bounds.
When complexity is extreme, the only possible answers are extreme. This is primarily due to "curse of dimensionality." See slides 24 - 33 of my Dec 2018 M4 presentation in NYC. priceactionlab.com/Blog/2018/12/m…
USA is in better condition than other countries b/c there is certain degree of decentralization of power. There are forces fighting this because they believe central control can achieve their objectives. This is what the Soviet Union thought. Communism ended with Soviet Union.
The problem with cryptocurrencies is that although they offer a solution for decentralization, they do that at an incredible increase in complexity. This is by far a sub-optimal solution to a difficult problem. Complexity is so high that hardening the system is impossible.
Regulators in USA haven't acted because it isn't their job unless there is violation of law. As far as using crypto for currency, this doesn't violate the Coinage Act of 1965, specifically Section 31 U.S.C. 5103. Private agents can use what they like. See: mikeharrisny.medium.com/cryptocurrenci…
In other countries there are different laws about what private business can use as currency. In EU for example, the Treaty prohibits dual currency schemes. Therefore, they can outlaw acceptance of crypto anytime they want.
At the same time, as indicated in recent official reports, crypto is considered a field of innovation. Therefore, they don't want to kill it. Well, innovation plus windfall profits for VCs and schemes that convince the public to part with their money.
I bet the attitude of regulators is "we have them anyway. Let's see where this gets us in terms of tech." At the same time, the impact on employment isn't insignificant at all. Thousands of tech people are now immersed in blockchain and Defi development.
So where do all these get us? Regulators won't get involved with crap like NFTs and pixelized gifs selling for millions through wash sales although few years ago they restricted retail intraday trading by enacting rules and now spend their time discussing order flow sales.
The failure to act will maybe grow a bubble to proportions of "too big to fail." Then everyone will pay for crypto coins and NFTs even if they didn't know what they were all about. But that's the plan.

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More from @mikeharrisNY

28 Nov
Short thread. I see some charlatans and especially one of most notorious, which I won't name, arguing for high probability of rebound tomorrow in stocks. I posted a backtest yesterday with results from shorting at close of Friday if larger than 2% drop.
These backtests have small samples and particular one shows, as expected, there is higher frequency of rebounds on Mondays after a large drop on Fridays, of around 60%. Now, frequency in historical data hardly translates to probability and also even then, 60% probability is low.
If you're aren't going to repeat this trade for several decades, then you may experience a large drawdown until the expectation converges, if ever. These charlatans don't understand probability doesn't translate to expectation for the next move.
Read 5 tweets
11 Nov
Thread now that the market is closed. 🚀

Let's talk about going short after another permabear fund announced shut down.

But before that, I'll talk briefly about going to the casino. It's related in a way.
I don't like casinos because I don't like to be around so many losers. The energy is bad. Casino players essentially go short the casino with tiny odds to win.

Last time I visited one was many years ago. I made windfall profits with a martingale system playing the roulette.
I cashed the ships and tried to get out. A few waitresses blocked my way offering free drinks and a man in black suit offered me a room at the hotel. I had to find an exclude to leave as the pressure to stay was mounting. Why? Because they knew if I stay long enough, I'd lose.
Read 12 tweets
24 Oct
1/ Overall it's interesting but there is a problem. The thread compares an additive process to a multiplicative one. Similar to those comparing number of deaths from ladder falling to those from virus infections. You simply can't compare these two processes.
2/ Save the fact that it's irrelevant to trading/investing. The payoffs are random variables and both additive or multiplicative can result to ruin/uncle point despite the positive "expectation" if there isn't enough capital to cover losses from drawdown.
3/ The Kelly criterion results in way excessive risk and although there is no "ruin" theoretically there can be "uncle point". Thus, although a nice theoretical exercise, this has little relation to investing, trading and risk management.
Read 6 tweets
18 Oct
🧵about selling trading strategies and software.

Some people ask a good question:

"Why do you sell software and strategies if they are making money?"

They usually imply there is something fishy.

Well, these people usually don't understand trading and risk management.
I recall recently someone asked @chanep this question during a webinar where he was talking about his ML software. His answer was good: Because I need to raise capital to trade.

So let's take this from start. There are three components: operation, capital and risk management.
Operation: I'm not raising OPM. I trade my own money. I don't like risking OPM. Retail traders cannot allocate all their money to trading. There are expenses they must cover every month.

The typical capital of retail trader ranges from maybe $50K to $1M. Not enough money.
Read 12 tweets
9 Oct
🧵The advantages of retail and large AUM funds over small funds.

1. Large AUM funds move the markets. If they even face 20% - 50% redemptions during that doesn't affect them much. They can always use their huge marketing and PR departments to make it back when markets recover.
2. Large AUM is an edge. Many market participants fail to understand this. Large funds can invalidate technical and fundamentals any time they want. But they are careful and focus on the longer-term.
3. On the other hand retail has many advantages most don't realize or exploit. After a 20% drawdown no one will call a retail trader in the middle of the nigh and ask for emergency meeting. Retail has freedom of movement. Freedom is also an edge of some kind.
Read 8 tweets
8 Sep
Get anything you like. Thread about forecasting.

What is forecasting? Forecasting is basically number crunching for the purpose of making decisions and developing data-driven strategies. There is a whole array of methods, tools and procedures.
But before we even start: forecasting is both art and science. At times, it may be 90% art and 10% science. Why? Because reality is underdetermined by data. This indeterminism is fundamental and beyond the scope of this thread. This is subject of grad courses in phi of science.
Not all methods and tools apply to all forecasts. It's important to understand that application is domain specific. Different tools are used for weather forecast than those used for inventory and sales forecast.
Read 15 tweets

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