B.1.1.529 (Omicron): Likely first concerning Covid variant since Delta, though still many unknowns. The emergence of this variant is a shot across the bow and underscores why it’s so urgent we address vaccine inequity. Here’s what we know and don’t know about Omicron. 1/thread
The South Africa Health Ministry did the right thing and its actions will save lives: quickly identified Omicron through sequencing where there is evidence of increased transmission and immediately shared this information with the world. @WHO labeled it a Variant of Concern. 2/
The rapidity with which the Omicron variant has become predominant in Gauteng Province is concerning. Evidence from other provinces suggests the variant has already spread across South Africa. B.1.1.529 has now been detected in samples from patients in multiple countries. 3/
The Omicron variant has >30 mutations in the spike protein. That’s a lot. Some are associated with increased transmission and possible immune escape, though not possible to predict reliably how the variant will act in the real world. 4/
Data suggests Omicron may be even more easily spread than Delta (which was already 2X more transmissible than the original strain.) We don’t have data yet on whether or not Omicron causes more severe or less severe illness or can escape existing immunity. 5/
One piece of good news: we can easily track spread because B.1.1.529 causes something called S-gene target failure which creates a specific pattern in PCR test results. This can make it easier to spot than Delta. 6/
Lots more we need to find out. Major q's:
More transmissible?
Able to evade vaccine and/or infection-induced immunity?
More severe illness?
Getting science right can take time. Epidemiologists get this; many in media don’t. The more we learn, the better we can fight Covid. 7/
How might Omicron affect treatment, including Regeneron as well as new antiviral medications? Time will tell whether they'll continue to be as effective for strains with these mutations. 8/
The virus that causes Covid adapts—faster than many thought possible. We too must adapt, working together around the world. A global pandemic requires a global response. 9/end
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Estimates of how common long Covid symptoms are for young people vary, but as many as half of people with infection may be affected. The virus is unpredictable and can cause serious long-term physical and mental damage—even to people who were previously healthy. Get vaccinated!
In a large study that tracked symptoms among 200,000 people post-Covid, nearly 50% of those age 10 to 21 had one or more symptoms at least three months after getting infected. bit.ly/3DBt34v
Another large study which focused primarily on children and young people, found that about one in seven (14%) had at least three symptoms three months after diagnosis. bit.ly/3qVU13z
What’s next for Covid? Will cases spike again? Should we expect another variant? We can predict what will happen over the next few weeks, but beyond that the picture gets murky. A thread on the big unknowns and on what we DO know. 1/
In the US, cases will likely continue to fall for the next 3-4 weeks. But anyone who says with confidence they know what will happen after that doesn’t understand Covid. The virus has surprised us many times before. There’s no reason to think it won’t continue to surprise us. 2/
But first, let’s be clear about one thing we DO know: our vaccines are working extremely well. Data consistently show that unvaccinated people have a greater risk of getting infected and a MUCH greater risk of spreading Covid to others, and developing severe disease. 3/
Pfizer and Moderna deserve credit for responding quickly to the most disruptive health crisis in a century and producing great vaccines. But failure to transfer technology will tarnish their reputations, prolong the pandemic, and could result in millions of deaths. 1/thread
mRNA vaccines are extremely safe, remarkably effective, & have saved hundreds of thousands of lives. They are our most powerful tool to end the pandemic. They’re easier to tweak for variants, quicker to produce, and less likely to suffer production problems than other vaccines.2/
mRNA vaccines appear to be even safer than other vaccines - which are very safe - and even more effective. mRNA vaccine production is our insurance policy against new, dangerous variants and against production delays with other vaccines. 3/
Herd immunity to Covid? Maybe an impossible dream. We need to reframe our approach to the pandemic and learn more, and limit the death and disruption. Here’s how. 1/thread
No one knows what will happen next in the pandemic. Longer-term predictions are just guesses. But we do know the endgame has shifted. Eradication is not possible. Even control will be difficult. We can reduce transmission and severe disease, but we can’t eliminate them. 2/
Today an FDA committee voted to recommend booster doses of Covid vaccines for people ages 65 and older and those at high risk of severe disease. Unlike Israel, they decided there is currently insufficient evidence of the need or benefit for everyone to get boosters. 3/
Delta’s sharp rise in the UK and Israel presaged the large wave we’re facing in the US. But in key ways, our epidemic curve looks different. I’ll explain how it’s different, why, and what this tells us about the future of the pandemic. 1/thread
In the US, we haven’t tested at nearly the rate of the UK and Israel. We test at less than one third their rate of testing. Because of this, we have likely missed A LOT more cases. 2/
This may explain why our curve doesn’t go quite as high as Israel’s or the UK’s. The number of actual infections is likely much higher (at least 3X, maybe more than 5X) than the number of reported cases in the US. 3/
CDC recommended today that some people with weakened immune systems get a third dose of mRNA vaccine as part of their primary series to achieve better protection from Covid. This recommendation makes sense. 1/thread
About 2.7% of US adults—roughly 7 million people—are immunocompromised, which means they have a condition that may interfere with how their body responds to infections as well as to vaccines. Here are CDC’s new recommendations: bit.ly/3CPngZ0 2/
Evidence shows that people with these conditions are at higher risk of severe illness and death from Covid, can shed virus longer and transmit it more to household contacts if they get infected, and are less protected by vaccines. 3/