CDC recommended today that some people with weakened immune systems get a third dose of mRNA vaccine as part of their primary series to achieve better protection from Covid. This recommendation makes sense. 1/thread
About 2.7% of US adults—roughly 7 million people—are immunocompromised, which means they have a condition that may interfere with how their body responds to infections as well as to vaccines. Here are CDC’s new recommendations: bit.ly/3CPngZ0 2/
Evidence shows that people with these conditions are at higher risk of severe illness and death from Covid, can shed virus longer and transmit it more to household contacts if they get infected, and are less protected by vaccines. 3/
There’s also a possibility that the virus can mutate more in people with weakened immune systems because their bodies take longer to clear the virus, giving the virus more time to evolve. nyti.ms/3g1p1J3 4/
Through monitoring, we've learned the two-dose mRNA series isn’t working as well for immunocompromised people as for other people. They're more likely to have a breakthrough infection, and, according to CDC, make up 40-44% of all hospitalized breakthrough cases in the US. 5/
Fortunately, there’s evidence that three doses in immunocompromised people are safe and may improve protection. Among immunocompromised people who didn’t have an antibody response to the first two doses, a significant proportion DID generate antibodies after a third dose. 6/
The presentations CDC staff made to ACIP are superb. A model of what public health should be: Clear, evidence-based, thoughtful, expert, and transparent. Thousands of CDC staff work hard every day to protect us. The slides are here. bit.ly/3ka2k6T 7/
For all of these reasons, CDC now recommends an additional dose of Pfizer or Moderna for moderately and severely immunocompromised people at least 28 days after their second one—preferably the same vaccine they’ve already received. cnn.it/3yS3xWA 8/
Groups recommended to receive a third dose:
-Treatment for solid tumor and blood cancer
-Solid-organ or stem cell transplant
-Severe primary immunodeficiency
-Advanced or untreated HIV infection
-Treatment with immunosuppressive drugs such as high-dose steroids
9/
The last group is large, and includes people not only being treated with high-dose steroids, but also alkylating agents, antimetabolites, tumor-necrosis blockers, and other biologic agents. 10/
There’s evidence from flu vaccination that some people on these treatments benefit from stopping treatment for a week or two after vaccination, if that’s clinically safe. If you’re being treated with a drug that may weaken your immune system, consult your clinician! 11/
Layers of protection still matter after the third dose. Until guidance changes, immunocompromised people—including those who receive a third dose—should continue to mask indoors (my 2 cents—with an N95 mask), distance, and take other precautions when case rates are high. 12/
Close contacts of immunocompromised people should get vaccinated to help protect the immunocompromised. 13/
What do these recommendations mean for immunocompromised people who got the one-dose J&J vaccine? Unfortunately, we don’t have good data for J&J, but these recipients certainly need guidance. CDC and FDA say they're working on it. 14/
In my opinion, immunocompromised J&J recipients may consider getting at least one dose of an mRNA vaccine, though CDC has not yet recommended this. 15/
Note that none of this is about the need for booster shots because of waning immunity. Waning immunity MAY occur. And it MAY be the case that we will need tweaked vaccines because of variants. We don’t know yet. 16/
The data on waning immunity isn’t there, although some preliminary results from Israel and elsewhere hint that either Delta or waning immunity may account for some breakthrough infections. (It’s hard to distinguish Delta from waning immunity as a cause of more breakthroughs.) 17/
It will be important to continue monitoring vaccine safety and effectiveness going forward. Bottom line: Our vaccines are doing their job—and now immunocompromised people can be more confident they’re getting more protection. 18/end
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If the Covid surge in the US follows the pattern of the UK and India, we’ll see cases top 200,000 in the coming weeks—but we may also see a sharp and sudden decrease soon after.
Why do explosive surges caused by Delta seem to burn out so quickly? A theory...
1/thread
No one knows for sure why cases have plunged so precipitously in countries where the Delta variant has become dominant. But understanding this trend could help us gain control of the pandemic. 2/
There’s been a lot of focus on one epidemiological term: the basic reproductive number, or “Ro,” which is the average number of people infected by one case without vaccination or control measures. Delta is at least two times as infectious as other strains, with an Ro of 5-6. 3/
Perspective: Here's the most revealing set of graphs I've seen in a long time. The UK's latest surge started about 33 days before the surge here in the US. 1/thread of 5
If the US case trend follows that of the UK, we'll have more than 200,000 cases a day by early September, possibly many more. See how the lines on the right are almost perfectly parallel. 2/5
What was somewhat reassuring is the relatively modest increase in the UK hospitalization rate. This suggests that because of the UK's very high rate of vaccination of seniors, the proportion of infections that are life-threatening is much lower. 3/5
I’ve heard concern over the past few days about the impact of Delta, and questions about new guidance from the CDC. The bottom line is the virus has adapted and we must adapt too. Delta is different, but our vaccines are still doing their job. 1/thread
Earlier this week, CDC issued new guidance that everyone—vaccinated and unvaccinated—should wear masks indoors in areas with high rates of Covid. And last night, information was published referencing new evidence and new challenges posed by Delta. wapo.st/3lfovuy 2/
Delta is at least 2x as transmissible as the original virus, and appears to be among the more infectious viruses, estimated to spread about as readily as chickenpox. But Delta can be controlled, just as we’ve controlled chickenpox—through vaccination & other measures. 3/
Thanks Dr. Rasmussen! Important points on the virology, but I believe the epidemiology is important also. We seem to agree there's a non-zero risk of strains emerging that aren't well protected against by current vaccines. We may disagree about how far from non-zero that risk is.
Yes, flu mutates faster—but we haven't seen two-fold changes in flu transmissibility in one season with one strain. With so much transmission, many new variants of SARS-CoV-2 are likely to continue to emerge.
There’s debate about whether vaccine-induced immunity can result in vaccine escape. As you correctly note, it’s not analogous to antibiotics, where use clearly drives resistance.
What's scarier than Delta? These are three things I worry about.
1) The emergence of future variants that can escape vaccine-induced immunity. Delta may not be the worst variant the virus deals us. Continued uncontrolled spread around the world makes this scenario more likely.
2) Resistance to effective disease control measures such as masking & vaccination that results in many preventable deaths. We underestimate Covid at our peril. Listening to/addressing concerns of every community, and implementing proven ways to save lives must be our way forward.
Schools will open in weeks in the US with the Delta variant spreading rapidly. What does this mean for kids—especially those under 12 who aren’t eligible for vaccination? How can we keep them safe? These are important questions that require practical, thoughtful answers. 1/thread
The Delta variant is much more transmissible than the original virus and makes up at least 83% of sequenced cases in the US. Although most adults are now fully vaccinated, that’s not the case for adolescents, and kids under 12 can’t be vaccinated yet. 2/
Good news: Most kids who get Covid will have mild or no symptoms, and there’s no evidence that Covid caused by the Delta variant causes more severe illness among kids. 3/