🧵 Don’t believe simple stories about Ankara’s drones…they didn’t win the war against Armenia…rather a lot of other drones Baku invested in helped win that conflict with troops on ground…and they didn’t win a war in Syria or Libya, they helped one side, they alone didn’t win.
Drones don’t win wars. Just like F-16s, which are much better than drones in many respects, don’t win wars by themselves. The US used a plethora of drones in Afghanistan and other countries fighting insurgents-terrorists and the US didn’t win…
Israel uses drones and drones don’t alone win the wars…they give a country an asset, and in uncontested airspace they can play a role. But Houthis aren’t winning a war with them. They harass, they provide intel, they can do a lot. But be wary of the simple story.
The story of Ankara drones used by Ukraine has yet to be fully written…but again…used in some proxy conflict against separatists they can be useful. But they don’t win wars by themselves.
If you study war or you’ve been to a lot of wars and seen drones used…they are far from being knit-together into some kind of multi-layered blitzkrieg or dronekrieg…that wins wars…maybe in the future but not yet
If you want to get a glimpse of the past, present and future of #dronewars, check out my book amazon.com/Drone-Wars-Pio…

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More from @sfrantzman

1 Dec
I have a question; the narrative on risk for variants implies that had vaccines been rolled out slower or not at all then there would be even more “mutant variants” than there are, so if this pandemic had happened a few decades ago without the technology we have today then? Image
So that would imply that a naturally occurring virus that spilled over to people seems to rapidly mutate in a more dangerous way, faster than past pandemics?
That’s what I don’t understand. Ostensibly the world has been amazingly lucky to have had this happen now when the world had the capacity and science to meet the challenge with epic speed, likely not possible in the past
Read 8 tweets
1 Dec
An ISIS “fighter”?…that’s an upgrade from terrorist or “militant.” Was Eichmann also a “Nazi fighter”? Now that he’s convicted of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and human trafficking maybe “fighter” is the wrong term. How about murderer, racist, Nazi-like Image
What is it about ISIS that there is too often this attempt to tip toe around this group? Media can report on the KKK without calling them “militants” and “fighters”…but when it comes to genocide in Iraq and Syria…there’s this attempt to elevate the perpetrators
This report lists the crimes bbc.com/news/world-eur…
Read 13 tweets
1 Dec
Only when you also read this in Ankara propaganda media and they have discussion on TRT about how Turkey is reaching out to Israel should any of this be believed. If it’s not on Anadolu and TRT it’s not real, it’s just trying to get Israel to believe this
I fell for this story once or twice in the past. And I noticed a PATTERN. Ankara will telegraph this to a few reporters abroad and it is timed to sabotage something or boost Ankara. For instance before the Israel-Greece-Cyprus deal or to get favors from Trump admin in 2020
Now Ankara has an economic crisis so it did reach out to the UAE but with Israel notice there is no positive talk in Ankara regime media, compare the adoring glances Ankara has for Iran with how it treats Israel publicly.
Read 5 tweets
1 Dec
As far as I know there is basically only one country and one city in that country where attacks like this happen...I'd wager that Jewish kids could be safe in most other places. That might reflect the leadership of the city and lack of prosecutions or tolerance?
I don't buy the lack of outrage in the US and NY when there are systematic attacks on Jews year after year...there is no other minority group in the US where assaults on even little kids are greeted with a shrug. And yet this is in a city where they talk a lot about "tolerance"
In a supposedly "tolerant" place with "diversity" there should be zero attacks on children based on race or religion...not "a few" attacks. Zero. And it's not the first time, it happens again and again that the perpetrators get off without any punishment, not charged with hate
Read 10 tweets
1 Dec
Today in #IsraelDefenseNews; @ILAerospaceIAI "has supplied the Israeli Air Force with an innovative air combat training system that enables debriefing of flight training exercises to be completed in record time."
"The unique air combat maneuvering instrumentation (ACMI)-based analysis system was upgraded ahead of the Blue Flag 2021 exercise that took place in Israel in October 2021, with participation from air forces, including: Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Greece, India, US"
"This year the system was embedded with display of time-critical land targets as well as display of the radiation status of systems simulating hostile air defense batteries of different kinds, including new IAI advanced systems."
Read 4 tweets
29 Nov
🧵 Prediction: If it’s true he’s stepping down…this site is going to get worse, not better. The tendency of social media becoming social engineering rather than letting people express themselves and share news, creativity and crowd source together…will grow doe the worse here
I predict this because of the extensive disaster that FB became moving people into silos they didn’t want, using algorithms obsessively to make people basically see the same tiny sliver of content as if it knows better than the user; policing key words and content obsessively
Using FB is a demoralizing depressing experience. The user has less and less choice, increasingly told what they should read and see. And privacy a disaster. Twitter was always slightly better. Not perfect and it made mistakes and creates silos also; algorithms too but still
Read 4 tweets

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