COVID Update: Many things reported as known about Omicron that are still questions or at best hunches. From my communications w scientists/officials today.
Here are key questions & my shot at current state answers. 1/
Here are key questions & my shot at current state answers. 1/
Is Omicron able to evade the current vaccine?
Unknown. The profile and amount of mutations leads to the assumption that it likely does at least in part. That is not the real world but first looks at early real world data seem to support that it does evade to some extent. 2/
Unknown. The profile and amount of mutations leads to the assumption that it likely does at least in part. That is not the real world but first looks at early real world data seem to support that it does evade to some extent. 2/
What we will look for is reduction of prevention of severe disease and moderate. The early pieces of data show more decline in moderate or mild disease. Some but less in severe.
It appears certain that being vaccinated improves your odds even if there is some degradation. 3/
It appears certain that being vaccinated improves your odds even if there is some degradation. 3/
Are people with prior infections from COVID-19 immune to Omicron?
Seems unlikely but still not final. Population data from SA provinces with high prior Delta infection shows very little effect. This still needs confirmation. 4/
Seems unlikely but still not final. Population data from SA provinces with high prior Delta infection shows very little effect. This still needs confirmation. 4/
Does Omicron outcompete Delta?
Still unknown. The growth has been rapid in S Africa. More data on spread being shared this afternoon. But there were few Delta cases in S Africa. We need to study how fast Omicron grows in countries where Delta dominates. 5/
Still unknown. The growth has been rapid in S Africa. More data on spread being shared this afternoon. But there were few Delta cases in S Africa. We need to study how fast Omicron grows in countries where Delta dominates. 5/
Part 2 of that answer is that if Omicron does not outcompete Delta, it will still be a problem if it is in an environment like S Africa w low levels of spread or if there is no cross-immunity to prior infection.
Suffice is to say much is unknown about how this will travel. 6/
Suffice is to say much is unknown about how this will travel. 6/
Is Omicron more severe than Delta or less?
Unknown. There has been anecdotal observation of less severe symptoms but I would disregard this. It will take more cases and more time to know. We are only a few weeks from the first case & a lot of spread has been in schools. 7/
Unknown. There has been anecdotal observation of less severe symptoms but I would disregard this. It will take more cases and more time to know. We are only a few weeks from the first case & a lot of spread has been in schools. 7/
Part 2: Hope is not a strategy but if Omicron turns out to be less severe and outcompetes Delta, that would be a positive development. There is no data one way or another here. 8/
Is Omicron airborne?
Yes. This one seems solid. 9/
Yes. This one seems solid. 9/
Do the monoclonal antibodies work against Omicron?
Not known yet but sophisticated lab analysis would indicate that they lose efficacy and would need to be adapted. 10/
Not known yet but sophisticated lab analysis would indicate that they lose efficacy and would need to be adapted. 10/
Will our vaccines be able to quickly adapt to new variants like Omicron?
Almost certainly yes. Based on prior planning and work the mRNA vaccines, the cycle time to produce new variant-specific vaccines is under 100 days. 11/
Almost certainly yes. Based on prior planning and work the mRNA vaccines, the cycle time to produce new variant-specific vaccines is under 100 days. 11/
Are there cases in the US?
As of now, none are confirmed but as testing picks up post holiday, it is highly likely cases will be discovered. 12/
As of now, none are confirmed but as testing picks up post holiday, it is highly likely cases will be discovered. 12/
What does this mean for holiday plans, travel or precautions?
Masking, portable ventilation, and gathering outdoors always makes sense with growing cases. Congregate settings & older people & people at higher risk are a real concern. 13/
Masking, portable ventilation, and gathering outdoors always makes sense with growing cases. Congregate settings & older people & people at higher risk are a real concern. 13/
If traveling until we know more it makes sense to assume your immunity is less than you thought it might be and be careful of areas with high or growing case counts and areas with low compliance. 14/
On more calls today. I will post things I learn that seem worth knowing but expect facts will evolve over the next few weeks. /end
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