Between 2010 and 2019, total UK spending on education fell by £10bn (8%) in real terms.
This includes a 9% real-terms fall in school spending per pupil and a 14% fall in spending per student in colleges.
These cuts are without precedent in post-war UK history.
[THREAD: 1/7]
The £4.4 billion for the schools budget in 2024 announced in the Spending Review will bring spending per pupil back to 2010 levels and reverse past cuts.
But this means there will have been 15 years with no overall growth in school spending.
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Deprived schools have seen larger cuts over the last decade.
The most deprived fifth of secondary schools saw a 14% real-terms fall in spending per pupil between 2009 and 2019, compared with a 9% drop for the least deprived schools.
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The National Funding Formula has given bigger real-terms increases for the least deprived schools (8–9%) than for the most deprived ones (5%) between 2017-2022. The Pupil Premium hasn't kept pace with inflation since 2015.
This has negative implications for levelling up.
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Even with additional funding from the recent Spending Review, college spending per pupil in 2024 will still be around 10% below 2010 levels, while school sixth-form spending per pupil will be 23% below 2010 levels.
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And although additional Spending Review funding means adult education & apprenticeships funding will rise by 30% in real terms between 2019-24, spending will still be 15% below 2009 levels.
Spending on adult education on its own fell by 49% between 2009 and 2019.
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‘This will make it that much harder to achieve ambitious goals to level up poorer areas of the country and narrow educational inequalities, which were gaping even before the pandemic,’ warns @lukesibieta.
Tweets 2-7 refer to England's education spending, you can read our report looking at spending in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland here > ifs.org.uk/publications/1…
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NEW: In advance of the Conservatives confirming their tax plans for the future today, we've assessed their record on tax policy in last 14 years.
THREAD on @HelenMiller_IFS, @StuartAdam_IFS and Bobbie Upton's new report, funded by @NuffieldFound @finan_fairness:
[1/11]
Tax revenue as a share of national income, at 36%, is higher now than at any point since 1948 and forecast to rise further.
The 2019-24 parliament saw the biggest rise in the tax take of any parliament in modern history.
[2/11]
The composition of revenue has changed.
Relative to 2010, more tax revenue is being raised from income tax, VAT, corporation tax and capital taxes. Less is being raised from fuel and tobacco duties and business rates.
NEW: The size of the state – spending as a proportion of national income – has increased by significantly more under this parliament than under any previous post-war Conservative parliament. A large part of this increase looks to be permanent.
The state was the same size in 2019-20 as it was in 2007-08.
Almost a decade of austerity simply reversed the growth in the state that happened during the financial crisis, and returned the size of the state to where it had been after a decade of New Labour governments.
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Returning the size of the state to 2007-08 levels after the financial crisis meant very slow spending growth over the 2010s compared to the historic average, particularly in a context of relatively weak economic growth.
NEW: There will be no easy options when it comes to schools funding after the #GeneralElection.
@lukesibieta’s new @NuffieldFound-funded report explains why the next government faces painful choices on school spending:
[THREAD: 1/8]
Since 2019, a £6 billion increase in school spending has taken real-terms spending per pupil back to 2010 levels.
But rapid rises in staff, energy and food costs leave the purchasing power of school budgets about 4% lower than in 2010.
[2/8]
With an expected 5% drop in pupil numbers up to 2028, an incoming government could cut total school spending by £3.5 billion (6%) by maintaining spending per pupil in real terms.
But since many school costs are fixed in the short run, this is easier said than done.
NEW: Ahead of the election, @PJtheEconomist, @nridpathecon and Carl Emmerson look back at the economy over the last 14 years in a chapter for @anthonyseldon and @Tom_AE_123’s forthcoming book The Conservative Effect, 2010-2024.
THREAD on the UK economy since 2010:
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The economy has grown only slowly since the Great Financial Crisis.
If we had continued growing at the rates seen in the 2000s, we would be on average over £10,000 richer each.
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Slow growth has been a common trend across advanced economies.
However, the UK has still lagged behind: since 2008, income per head has grown at a third of the speed of the US and half the speed of Germany.
NEW: Access to Sure Start greatly improved disadvantaged children’s GCSE results, by as much as three GCSE grades.
THREAD on @nridpathecon, @Sarah_Cattan and @carneiro_econ’s new report, funded by @NuffieldFound, on Sure Start’s impact on educational outcomes: [1/10]
Between 1999 and 2010, Sure Start expanded as a network of ‘one-stop shops’ integrating services for families with children under 5 under one roof. These ranged from ante- and post-natal health services, parenting support, early learning, childcare and employment support.
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At its peak, Sure Start cost £2.5 billion per year.
Spending has since fallen by more than two-thirds as many centres have been closed, scaled back or integrated into Family Hubs.
NEW: The Scottish Government has boosted support for students’ living costs from September, but funding for undergraduate teaching faces further cuts at the 2024-25 Scottish Budget.
THREAD on @KateOgdenEcon & Madeline Thomas’ report on Scottish higher education spending: [1/11]
Scottish students' living cost support had been eroded over time, with real-terms support for the poorest students cut by 16% (£1.6k a year) between 2013-14 and 2022-23.
The £900 increase in loan entitlements in 2023-24 was the first real-terms increase in over a decade.
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The increase in loan entitlements this September means Scottish students will be able to borrow £2,400 more towards living costs, a real-terms rise of 24% for the poorest.
This meets the Scottish Government’s pledge to provide support equivalent to the Living Wage.