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Institute for Fiscal Studies Profile picture
Institute for Fiscal Studies
@TheIFS
Britain’s leading independent economic research institute
Oct 23 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
NEW: Access to Sure Start as a child reduced the likelihood of ending up in youth custody by a fifth.

THREAD on our new report, funded by @NuffieldFound, on Sure Start’s impact on crime and social care outcomes: [1/9]

ifs.org.uk/publications/e… Established 25 years ago, Sure Start operated as a network of centres integrating services for families with young children under one roof, before being wound back since its peak in 2010.

Previous IFS work found it improved young people’s health and educational outcomes.

[2/9]
Sep 27 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
NEW: Public sector pay has declined relative to the wider pay distribution, especially for higher earners.

@JCribbEcon @awmckendrick @m_dominguezp’s Green Budget chapter examines the pressures on public sector pay and the implications for recruitment & retention:

[THREAD: 1/11] Image The new government has accepted in full the independent 2024 Pay Review Body recommendations, with average pay rises of 5.5%.

This is ahead of inflation, and close to private sector pay growth.

[2/11]
Sep 19 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
NEW: Health-related benefit claims have risen substantially across England and Wales, with increases in mental health claims across all ages.

There is little evidence of similar trends in other countries.

THREAD on our new report on health-related benefits:

[1/7] Chart shows share of working-age population claiming selected health-related benefits: selected countries (indexed to 2019). Title states: "The rapid growth in health-related benefits seems to be largely a UK phenomenon." There has been rapid growth in the health-related benefits caseload since 2019. 1 in 10 working-age people in England & Wales now claim a health-related benefit.

@OBR_UK projects further growth of 19% for incapacity benefits & 41% for disability benefits from 2023 to 2028. [2/7] Chart shows share of working-age population claiming health-related benefits. Title states: "The caseload for incapacity benefits has grown by 28% since 2019–20, and the disability benefits caseload by 39%."
Jul 25 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
NEW: Rising mortgage interest rates pushed 320,000 into poverty by December 2023, but only two-thirds of that will be captured by official statistics.

THREAD on Sam Ray-Chaudhuri, @TomWatersEcon & Tom Wernham’s @JRF_uk-funded living standards, poverty & inequality report:

[1/7] Charts show mortgagor absolute poverty rate (after deducting housing costs), under alternative interest rates. Title states: "Higher mortgage interest payments pushed 320,000 mortgagors into poverty by December 2023." Mortgage interest rates have risen rapidly since June 2022.

These increases have not impacted all mortgagors, but those whose fixed period ended recently have faced much higher interest rates, which can increase payments by thousands of pounds per year.

[2/7] Chart shows average interest rate on new loans/remortgages (weighted by loan value). Title states: "Average mortgage interest rates for re-mortgagors had risen to more than 5% by December 2023."
Jun 24 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
STARTING NOW: @PJTheEconomist opens our IFS event analysing the 2024 General Election manifestos:

📺 Watch live here:

Ask questions here:
app.sli.do/event/9esN5Dd8… - @PJTheEconomist: The "raw facts" on the public finances and funding for public services "are largely ignored by the two main parties in their manifestos."

"They have singularly failed even to acknowledge some of the most important issues and choices."
Jun 11 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
NEW: In advance of the Conservatives confirming their tax plans for the future today, we've assessed their record on tax policy in last 14 years.

THREAD on @HelenMiller_IFS, @StuartAdam_IFS and Bobbie Upton's new report, funded by @NuffieldFound @finan_fairness:

[1/11] Image Tax revenue as a share of national income, at 36%, is higher now than at any point since 1948 and forecast to rise further.

The 2019-24 parliament saw the biggest rise in the tax take of any parliament in modern history.

[2/11] Image
Jun 9 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
NEW: The size of the state – spending as a proportion of national income – has increased by significantly more under this parliament than under any previous post-war Conservative parliament. A large part of this increase looks to be permanent.


[🧵: 1/11] ifs.org.uk/publications/h…
Image The state was the same size in 2019-20 as it was in 2007-08.

Almost a decade of austerity simply reversed the growth in the state that happened during the financial crisis, and returned the size of the state to where it had been after a decade of New Labour governments.

[2/11] Image
Jun 4 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
NEW: There will be no easy options when it comes to schools funding after the #GeneralElection.

@lukesibieta’s new @NuffieldFound-funded report explains why the next government faces painful choices on school spending:

[THREAD: 1/8] Image Since 2019, a £6 billion increase in school spending has taken real-terms spending per pupil back to 2010 levels.

But rapid rises in staff, energy and food costs leave the purchasing power of school budgets about 4% lower than in 2010.

[2/8] Chart shows total school spending per pupil, 2009–10 = 1. Title states: "There has been no overall real-terms growth in school spending per pupil in England in over 14 years."
Jun 3 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
NEW: Ahead of the election, @PJtheEconomist, @nridpathecon and Carl Emmerson look back at the economy over the last 14 years in a chapter for @anthonyseldon and @Tom_AE_123’s forthcoming book The Conservative Effect, 2010-2024.

THREAD on the UK economy since 2010:
[1/13] Image The economy has grown only slowly since the Great Financial Crisis.

If we had continued growing at the rates seen in the 2000s, we would be on average over £10,000 richer each.

[2/13] Chart shows GDP per capita compared to pre-Recession trend. Title states: "GDP per head remains far below the pre-2008 trend and has stagnated since the pandemic."
Apr 9 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
NEW: Access to Sure Start greatly improved disadvantaged children’s GCSE results, by as much as three GCSE grades.

THREAD on @nridpathecon, @Sarah_Cattan and @carneiro_econ’s new report, funded by @NuffieldFound, on Sure Start’s impact on educational outcomes: [1/10] Image Between 1999 and 2010, Sure Start expanded as a network of ‘one-stop shops’ integrating services for families with children under 5 under one roof. These ranged from ante- and post-natal health services, parenting support, early learning, childcare and employment support.

[2/10]
Feb 20 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
NEW: The Scottish Government has boosted support for students’ living costs from September, but funding for undergraduate teaching faces further cuts at the 2024-25 Scottish Budget.

THREAD on @KateOgdenEcon & Madeline Thomas’ report on Scottish higher education spending: [1/11] Image Scottish students' living cost support had been eroded over time, with real-terms support for the poorest students cut by 16% (£1.6k a year) between 2013-14 and 2022-23.

The £900 increase in loan entitlements in 2023-24 was the first real-terms increase in over a decade.

[2/11]
Jan 25 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
NEW: The next government will face some of the toughest choices in generations.

Our new report, funded by @NuffieldFound and @finan_fairness, identifies the key economic and fiscal choices ahead of the upcoming General Election:

[THREAD: 1/14]ifs.org.uk/publications/c… A combination of high debt interest payments and low growth is forecast for the next parliament.

This will make it harder to reduce debt as a fraction of national income than in any parliament since the 1950s.

[2/14]
Nov 17, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
NEW: Housing costs take up three-and-a-half times as much of the budgets of the poor as of the rich.

We need to take housing costs into account to understand income poverty.

THREAD on @JCribbEcon, Tom Wernham & @xiaoweixu_’s new report on housing costs and incomes: [1/5] Chart shows percentage of income spent on housing costs, by before housing costs income quartile. Title states: "The poorest quarter of the population on average spent 21% of their household income on housing costs (rent or mortgage interest) in 2021, compared to 6% for the richest quarter." Whether we deduct housing costs from incomes makes a big difference to poverty measurement – the poverty rate is around 17% ignoring housing costs, but 22% if we deduct them.

Trends over time also look very different when housing costs are deducted from incomes.

[2/5] Chart shows percentage of people in relative poverty, before and after deducing housing costs. Title states: "Relative poverty fell 1.4 percentage points from 2008 to 2021 if we ignore housing costs, but only 0.5 percentage points if we deduct them from incomes."
Nov 16, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
NEW: Scottish pupils' performance in international PISA tests has declined over time in maths & science, while reading test performance has been more stable.

James Lester, @awmckendrick & @lukesibieta investigate socio-economic inequality in Scottish education:

[THREAD: 1/6] Chart shows Scottish PISA scores over time. Title states: "Scotland’s performance in PISA maths and science tests has declined from high to average, while reading tests performance been more stable." Scotland has gone from best performing UK nation in PISA tests to being an average performer.

It remains above Wales, but is much closer to the OECD average than it was in 2006 to 2012.

[2/6] Chart shows average PISA scores across UK nations over time. Title states: "Scotland has gone from best performing UK nation in PISA tests to being an average performer."
Sep 7, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
NEW: It may be harder now than at any point in over half a century to move up the distribution if you are born in a position of disadvantage.

THREAD on our IFS Deaton Review of Inequalities commentary on social mobility in the UK, funded @NuffieldFound: [1/9] Image Inheritances will be twice as big on average for those born in the 1980s as for those born in the 1960s.

Your parents’ earnings are a much stronger predictor of your earnings for those born from the 1970s onwards than they were for previous generations.

[2/9] Chart shows per heir parental wealth, by child’s decade of birth. Title states: "Wealth ‘per-heir’ of the parents of those born in the 1980s is double that of those born in the 1960s."
Aug 23, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Differences in disability rates between education groups are larger than differences by age, our new commentary for the Inequality: IFS Deaton Review finds.

30-year-olds without qualifications are more likely to be disabled than university grads in their 60s.

[THREAD: 1/7] Chart shows long-standing and limiting disability by educational qualification. Title states: "30-year-olds without qualifications are more likely to be disabled than university graduates in their 60s." The economic effects of disability are also felt unequally between educational groups.

Those with low levels of education are not only more likely to have a disability, but that disability is much more likely to result in them being out of work.

[2/7]
Mar 16, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Isaac Delestre presents our analysis on the #Budget2023 changes to the tax system.

Watch live here: The biggest change to personal tax coming next month wasn't announced yesterday, but is the income and NICs threshold freezes announced last year.

The additional tax burden for most basic-rate taxpayers will be about £500, while for most higher-rate taxpayers it will be £1000.
Mar 16, 2023 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
Carl Emmerson presents on the public finance risks and the public spending in our #Budget2023 analysis event.

Watch live here: The @OBR_UK are now among the most optimistic of forecasters on growth, and expect the economy to be 0.6% bigger in 2027 than under its previous forecast.

This would be stronger growth than under @bankofengland's forecast, but still poor compared to the long-run average.
Mar 16, 2023 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
STARTING NOW: Spring Budget 2023 IFS analysis

Watch our overnight analysis of yesterday's #Budget2023 here: .@PJTheEconomist opens our event with his opening remarks, followed by four presentations on the public finances and public spending, tax changes, the changes to Universal Credit and disability benefits and childcare changes.

Watch live here:
Mar 15, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The expansion of free childcare entitlements is to exacerbate one of the largest distortions you are likely to see in a tax and benefit system, meaning some parents could be worse off overall even after a pay rise of tens of thousands of pounds.

#Budget2023 THREAD: Free 30hr entitlements will remain unavailable when earnings cross £100k. That huge “cliff-edge” will now be extended to high-earning parents of under-3s, and increased sharply for many high earners with 2+ preschool children. This can lead to extraordinarily perverse incentives.
Mar 15, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
After a shallower recession in the short term, the @OBR_uk now expects the economy to be 0.6% bigger in 2027 than under its previous forecast.

This would still be a poor growth performance compared to the long-run average.

#Budget2023 Chart shows forecasts for growth, real GDP indexed (2019=100 Borrowing in the later forecast years was revised down, by £17 billion or 0.6% of national income.

However, this still leaves borrowing higher than in the forecast produced before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Chart shows successive OBR borrowing forecasts. Title states