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Ben See Profile picture
@ClimateBen
Nov 30, 2021 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
BREAKING: catastrophically rapid global warming via an 'aerosol termination shock' in the 2020s and 2030s cannot be ruled out say scientists as they urge immediate media coverage 🧵
1. A recent albedo decrease and increase in planetary heat uptake coincided with a decrease in anthropogenic sulfur emissions.

This trend could accelerate further with more sulfur emission reductions.

Rapid global warming, cannot be excluded.

⬇️

2. James Hansen warns of dire 2°C by 2040 as carefully explained here by @bberwyn.

Where are the other journalists?

insideclimatenews.org/news/15092021/…
3. There’s a fix for at least some of this short-term increase in the rate of warming:

"The only measures that can counteract this increased rate of warming over the next decades are methane reductions"insideclimatenews.org/news/15092021/…
4. Methane is rising sharply Image
5. The thread is being updated with further details:

6. global warming acceleration is due to the one huge climate forcing that we have chosen not to measure: forcing caused by imposed changes of atmospheric aerosols

expect warming rate for 2015-2040 to double 'unless appropriate countermeasures are taken'
mailchi.mp/caa/july-tempe…
7. Scroll up to read this helpful conversation.

Dire 1.5°C can be expected by the 2020s, or if not, by the 2030s.

2°C hell looks hard/impossible to avoid by the 2030s-2060s to my mind, though theoretically it could be delayed for many decades/centuries.

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More from @ClimateBen

Ben See Profile picture
Jul 18
BREAKING:  climate scientists fear the worst after discovering Earth's plants and soils stopped absorbing CO₂ last year 🧵
1. 'Collapse of the land carbon sink in 2023..

plants and soils absorbed almost no CO2 last year'

'we may see a rapid acceleration of CO2 and global warming.. unforeseen in future climate models projections'

'ugly consequences'



arxiv.org/abs/2407.12447
2. Organise political and economic system change now to protect species and everyone.

Thread:
Read 7 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Jul 16
BREAKING: scientists confirm rapid deoxygenation of oceans, lakes, rivers, and streams is now a threat to the stability of life on Earth 🧵
1. 'ongoing deoxygenation presents a major threat to the livelihoods of large parts of society and for the stability of life on our planet'

Causes of oxygen loss:

global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions

input of nutrients as a result of land use

phys.org/news/2024-07-l…
2. 'Planetary boundaries represent thresholds in major Earth system processes that are sensitive to human activity and control global-scale habitability and stability

critical oxygen thresholds are being approached at rates comparable to other.. processes'
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Jul 2
An amazing news story totally ignored by state-corporate media: according to even the most conservative and optimistic consensus assumptions there had to be 'immediate action' years ago at the very latest with emissions peaking and falling by now to avoid utterly catastrophic 2C.
Image
For 1.5C, 2025 greehouse gas emissions would be 20-30% lower than 2020 levels, and between 10-20% lower for 2C.

Emissions are higher than ever in July 2024.

This Extinction Economy means 2.5/3°C by the 2040s or soon after.
Read 4 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Jul 2
BREAKING: scientists warn we're beginning to feel the effects of a geologically instantaneous 21st century shift into extreme and unsurvivable conditions 🧵
1. 'We are starting to feel the effects of transitioning to a hothouse climate (ΔT  +4-5 °C) in a geological instant'

The global change happening now is potentially like the Permian extinction which occurred in just a few centuries.

phys.org/news/2018-09-e…
2. "In my view it is impossible to survive that sort of change (4°C by 2100). That is beyond human physiology. But that is the trajectory we are on now.. No matter what we do with all the whiz-bang technology.. physiologically we cant survive that."

News?
Read 5 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Jun 28
BREAKING:  scientists now all agree humanity faces a global food supply catastrophe in roughly a decade or two 🧵
Biodiversity destruction/extinction disaster plus 2, 2.5 or even 3°C of warming by 2048.

This means severe sustained global impacts on food systems by 2035-2050 with conditions so extreme scientists can't prove they're survivable.


carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-…
phys.org/news/2023-09-h…
IPCC SRCCL report: Risks to land-related human systems and ecosystems Fig SPM 2
Even establishment climate scientists who organise consensus views (and often downplay catastrophe) show we can anticipate 2.1°C by (2035- ) 2050 at which point impacts become too severe to manage.



Climate is just one factor.
🧵:
ipcc.ch/srccl/chapter/…

IPCC SRCCL report: risks to land-related human systems and ecosystems
Read 10 tweets
Ben See Profile picture
Jun 21
Scientists now know today's capitalist economic system can't limit global warming to well below 2°C meaning human adaptation will not be feasible as the conditions for modern agriculture disappear forever in the coming years. Most scientists accept this. Some aren't ready yet. 🧵
Officially, CO2 emissions would have needed to be reduced by a staggering 70% in the 2020s to limit global warming to well below 2°C (when CDR fails). This is obviously not feasible: economic growth has left us with record high emissions approaching 2025.

carbonbrief.org/guest-post-emi…
CO2 is now at around 428 ppm and rising, suggesting Earth is 'locked into rises of 3C-4C in the next few centuries.'

And biodiversity destruction is accelerating.

Change this Extinction Economy now while it's still too late.
dumptheguardian.com/science/2019/a…
Read 8 tweets

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