BREAKING: catastrophically rapid global warming via an 'aerosol termination shock' in the 2020s and 2030s cannot be ruled out say scientists as they urge immediate media coverage 🧵
1. A recent albedo decrease and increase in planetary heat uptake coincided with a decrease in anthropogenic sulfur emissions.
This trend could accelerate further with more sulfur emission reductions.
3. There’s a fix for at least some of this short-term increase in the rate of warming:
"The only measures that can counteract this increased rate of warming over the next decades are methane reductions"insideclimatenews.org/news/15092021/…
4. Methane is rising sharply
5. The thread is being updated with further details:
6. global warming acceleration is due to the one huge climate forcing that we have chosen not to measure: forcing caused by imposed changes of atmospheric aerosols
expect warming rate for 2015-2040 to double 'unless appropriate countermeasures are taken' mailchi.mp/caa/july-tempe…
7. Scroll up to read this helpful conversation.
Dire 1.5°C can be expected by the 2020s, or if not, by the 2030s.
2°C hell looks hard/impossible to avoid by the 2030s-2060s to my mind, though theoretically it could be delayed for many decades/centuries.
1.5-1.75°C by 2024-2026
1.75-2°C by 2029-2031
2-2.25°C by 2034-2036
Time's up.
Rethink human systems now to protect species and everyone while it's still too late.
🧵
State-corporate journalists/editors have ignored the latest climate models for years and years. They've had the information needed to warn the public for decades. Hellish two degrees and rising in the 2030s is nearly here.
The Extinction Economy is wiping out life as we know it. 40-70% of species are at critical extreme risk of extinction within a few decades. Abrupt climate change is just one compounding factor in the annihilation of biodiversity and life as we know it.
Scientists used to think utterly unsurvivable extremes wouldn't hit until 2081-2300 or later (or never). Now they fully expect abrupt global extinction horror by the 2040s.
1. 'What happens in the next two decades will very likely define the future of biodiversity and H. sapiens.' From 2023.
DOOM: For 250 years between 1720 and 1969, the US, UK, & Europe were the main CO2 emitters and the key wreckers of biodiversity. These criminal countries subsequently blocked any attempts to change the deeply entrenched economic system away from deadly capitalism and growth.
1. The US knew by the 1950s/60s that systems change was required to avoid global catastrophe. Scientists informed the President. However, the priorities remained power and wealth.
Earth's species will suffer global warming of 2, 2.5, or 3°C in 12 to 14 years. (No scientist really thinks we won't hit at least 1.96°C for the first time by 2038 after hitting 1.68°C in 2024.) Primates like humans are unlikely to survive for very much longer. Time to rethink.🧵
1. "a rise in global temperatures of 3.1C is not compatible with human survival." @jeremycorbyn
Organise for political and economic system change action while it's still too late to protect species and everyone. dumptheguardian.com/commentisfree/…
3°C trend from 2045. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
COLLAPSING: scientists indicate civilisation-wrecking conditions are already developing as rapid mass extinction accelerates with billions set to be killed from 2029- 2048🧵
Current generic extinction rates likely to greatly accelerate in coming decades due to economic growth & overconsumption by the rich.
Economic activities during capitalism are destroying the conditions that make human life possible. pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn… salon.com/2023/09/19/exp…
Plastic contamination will soon be "catastrophic" for human health and is slowly "killing the human race"
more cancer, more allergic diseases, more infertility