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Henry Gao Profile picture
@henrysgao
Nov 30, 2021 • 10 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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China's WTO Ambassador Li Chenggang published an op-ed on the 20th anniversary of China's accession to the WTO in the People's Daily yesterday.

Titled "Playing a colorful movement on the WTO stage", it confirmed several of my observations over the years:
paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2021…
1. The overall assessment, as noted by Amb. Li at the beginning of the essay, is that China has grown from a "rule-taker" to a "rule-maker". This is an observation I first made 11 years ago in a paper with the same title, available on @SSRN:
ssrn.com/abstract=19417….
More specifically, the essay notes that China is the "main force" of rules negotiation, "Top Students" in Policy Review, and the "night watchman" of the dispute settlement mechanism, which were all explored in my 2010 paper.
2. The essay also notes that "China has grown from a user of public goods to an important provider on the WTO stage", supported by examples such as the China Programme for LDC accession, as well as China's "leading role in WTO reform". Yes, you read it right, China is now saying
that it plays a leading role in WTO reform negotiations, as I pointed out in another recent paper:
Henry Gao, China’s Changing Perspective on the WTO: From Aspiration, Assimilation to Alienation. Available at SSRN: ssrn.com/abstract=39585…
such a claim also confirms the broader point in my paper above that China now sees itself as the affirmer of WTO rules and reform negotiations.
3. In summary, Amb Li notes, "Over the past 20 years, China has kept its promises and acted positively, and has played a constructive role in promoting the development of the WTO." In support, he refers to the "overwhelming praise of China by most WTO Members in the recent TPR",
Yet, the story as reported in @fbermingham's live reporting of the TPR seems to indicate otherwise, which is summarized in the discussion on China's "alienation" from WTO rules and the reactions that followed in my paper.
4. Li's essay is capped with an upbeat note:
China will continue to play colorful music on the WTO stage, and to promote WTO reform in line with the needs of the overall interests of 164 Members, so that the large garden of the WTO will be "red and purple in every way".
While people may debate whether China is the one playing "colorful music" or "discordant notes", let me finish off this thread, as I did in my paper, with a thought from 3 years ago in this op-ed in the @east_asia_forum: eastasiaforum.org/2018/03/09/bro…

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More from @henrysgao

Henry Gao Profile picture
May 9
The US-UK trade deal is out—and it confirms most of my predictions in my @commonplc piece “The Art of a Trade Deal” 4 weeks ago:

1. Tariffs: The 10% tariff remains in place for now, but contrary to some interpretations, this doesn’t mean the UK failed to negotiate it down. The Image
Agreement explicitly states that both sides will enter negotiations to reduce tariff rates. As I noted, the likely landing point is around the US’s 3.4% rate-if the UK is willing to match it.

2. Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs): Just as I anticipated, NTBs is central to the next phase Image
For a developed country like the UK, the focus is on overregulation—technical barriers to trade, SPS measures, and similar restrictions—all explicitly referenced in the Agreement.

3. Supply Chains: I flagged this as a key issue, and the Agreement confirms it. It addresses supply Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Henry Gao Profile picture
Apr 10
A New BRI on the Horizon?

Today’s front page of People’s Daily features the Central Peripheral Work Conference—a major development, given this is only the second such meeting in the PRC’s 76-year history.

The first such meeting was in Oct 2013, when Xi launched the BRI, which Image
was elevated to a national strategy at the 3rd Plenum of the 18th CCP Central Committee held the following month.

As I argued in this @trade_review article 3 years ago, the BRI was China’s strategic response to US containment through the TPP, where the
cambridge.org/core/journals/…Image
@trade_review US tried to “make sure the US—and not countries like China—is the one writing this century’s rules for the world’s economy.”

But the TPP was killed.

Now, as @realDonaldTrump tries to rewrite the rules of global trade through the Reciprocal Tariff Policy, China is striking back.
Read 5 tweets
Henry Gao Profile picture
Apr 9
China today released a white paper titled “China's Position on Some Issues Concerning China-US Economic, Trade Relations.”

No, it’s not about setting the record straight as it claims.

It’s a retaliation wishlist—and a catalog of Beijing’s deepest trade fears. Image
1. Retaliation List:
• Banning U.S. services exports
• Halting IP protection for U.S. companies
• Imposing forced tech transfers
• Banning U.S. food and agricultural products
• Limiting access to China’s financial markets
• Devaluing the RMB Image
2. Fear List:
• Repeal of PNTR status
• Trade and investment restrictions on national security grounds
• Expanded export controls
• Section 301 tariffs
• Section 232 investigations
• Use of trade remedy tools (AD/CVD)
• Ending the de minimis exemption
• Reciprocal tariffs Image
Read 5 tweets
Henry Gao Profile picture
Apr 8
Why did Trump impose tariffs on Heard & McDonald Islands-home only to penguins, and British Indian Ocean Territory, which is occupied solely by military personnel?

No, it’s not because of internet domain names, as some speculated.

The answer is found in today’s People’s Daily Image
editorial, “Pressure and threats are by no means the right way to deal with China,” which proudly declared that China maintains “import and export records with almost all countries and regions in the UN Standard Country or Area Codes for Statistical Use.”

And guess what? Among Image
those listed in the UN Standard Country or Area Codes for Statistical Use are the Great Territories of the British Indian Ocean Territory and Heard and McDonald Islands!

unstats.un.org/unsd/methodolo…Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Henry Gao Profile picture
Apr 7
Three things you need to know about Liberation Day tariffs:

1. It’s not about the methodology.

The formula has been widely mocked, but that misses the point. The numbers aren’t meant to hold up in a PhD defense—they’re meant to shock, to create leverage. The more extreme the
figure, the stronger the incentive for other countries to come to the negotiating table with the U.S.

2. It’s not even about the tariffs.
The real issue isn’t Vietnam’s tariff rates—it’s China’s trans-shipment tactics and its central role in global supply chains.

The aim is to
isolate China and rewrite the rules of global trade. If a country like Vietnam is willing to align with that goal, it doesn’t matter much whether it sets its tariffs for American products at 0%, 5%, or even 9.4% (current rate).

3. It’s not personal with any country—except one.
Read 5 tweets
Henry Gao Profile picture
Apr 7
Amid Trump tariff chaos, People’s Daily published an editorial today urging everyone to “Focus on Doing Your Own Things”—a phrase that sums up China’s core strategy. This thread breaks it down.

It begins by acknowledging that U.S. tariffs do hurt, but “the sky can’t collapse.” Image
That phrase—“the sky can’t collapse”—is notable. Mao used the exact same words in 1962 during a meeting of 7,000 top CCP officials, after a disastrous 13 years marked by the Great Famine and split with a world Superpower - the USSR.

Fittingly, this is also the 13th year of Xi’s Image
reign—featuring the Great Lockdown and split with a world Superpower - the US.

The editorial offers 5 reasons why “the sky can’t collapse”:

1. China is a mega-sized economy with strong resilience to U.S. pressure.
2. China’s dependence on the U.S. is shrinking: exports to U.S.
Read 15 tweets

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