Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Simon Evans Profile picture
@DrSimEvans
Dec 1, 2021 • 11 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
The @IEA has increased its renewable growth forecast by 40% since last year

It now expects growth to average more than 300GW/yr over the next 5yrs

Renewables would reach 4,800GW, topping the combined capacity of the world's fossil fuel & nuclear plants

iea.org/reports/renewa…
The massive boost in near-term renewable prospects is shown in IEA figure 1.2, with growth over the next 5yrs topping 1,800GW vs the 5yr forecast of 1,300GW last year (chart shld say "2020 and 2021")

It says this is driven by "growing policy momentum"

iea.org/reports/renewa…
The IEA points to examples including China's new targets for 2030, national efforts in the EU towards higher 2030 targets and increased ambition under the Biden administration in the US

iea.org/reports/renewa…
The IEA says China accounts for 60% of the revision, following the announcement of new targets including for wind & solar to reach 1,200GW by 2030 and non-fossil electricity to make up 40% of the total by the same year

carbonbrief.org/analysis-china…
Moreover, @fbirol says these targets mean China "could well" peak its emissions "well before 2030"

carbonbrief.org/analysis-china…
The IEA says renewables will account for almost all of the overall growth in electricity generating capacity – some 95% of the total

Some 80% of the growth will come in four markets:

CN, IN, US & EU
🇨🇳🇮🇳🇺🇸🇪🇺

iea.org/reports/renewa…
Nevertheless, the IEA notes that growth is not forecast to reach the levels needed in its 1.5C pathway

iea.org/reports/renewa…
Moreover, the IEA points to risks from current high commodity prices, which would erase some – though by no means all – of the recent wind and solar cost reductions, if they are sustained
(Before getting too excited about possible temporary cost increases, it's worth remembering just how cheap solar, in particular, has become)
For more details of the IEA renewable forecasts, check out this excellent thread from @fbirol and/or read the report itself (it's free! 👏…although the data isn't 😢)

Oh and here is our coverage of the IEA's renewable forecast reports from 2019 and 2020

Sorry no piece this year as I have too much else on at the moment – this thread will have to suffice

2020 carbonbrief.org/iea-wind-and-s…
2019 carbonbrief.org/analysis-renew…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Simon Evans

Simon Evans Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DrSimEvans

Simon Evans Profile picture
Feb 26
NEW: Official advisers CCC say UK shld cut emissions 87% by 2040

⚖️Net cost of net-zero 73% less than thought
💷Total cost to 2050 = £108bn (~£4bn/yr, 0.2% GDP)
🏡🚗H’hold energy/fuel bills to fall £1,400
🔌Electrification is key

THREAD + charts



1/10 carbonbrief.org/ccc-reducing-e…Image
Just so we're clear, let's start with why bother

We're seeing record heat – 100% caused by our emissions – and extreme weather, from floods to droughts to heatwaves

IPCC says net-zero is only way to stop this getting worse



2/10 carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…Image
There’s also the global energy crisis, which hit UK particularly hard due to reliance on imported gas, crushing household (and govt) finances

UK has spent £140bn on gas since the crisis began (!)

Shift to net-zero would massively reduce exposure to intl fossil fuel prices

3/10 Image
Read 17 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Feb 10
THREAD: New UK govt contract with Drax biomass power plant

* 4-yr contract 2027-2031
* £113/MWh (2012 prices – £155 in today's money)
* Output cap of 6TWh (<2% of UK supplies, cf recent yrs 12-15TWh)
* CfD cost ~£500m/yr
* 100% of fuel must be "sustainable", up from 70%
1/5 Image
UK govt says the contract helps security of electricity supplies, but gives Drax a "much more limited role than today" ie it's limited to run at roughly 25% of its max output

This means it's mainly going to be running when it isn't windy


2/5 questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem…Image
Drax has had issues with existing 70% sustainable sourcing rule, but as it'll need less than half the fuel it has been buying to date, the new 100% rule looks more achievable

Notably, new contract terms allow govt to reclaim subsidy if rule not met


3/5 bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…Image
Read 6 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Jan 2
+++NEW ANALYSIS+++

UK electricity was the cleanest ever in 2024, with emissions per unit falling by more than two-thirds in a decade

Highlights:
🏭end of coal power after 142yrs
🔥fossil fuels at record-low 29% share
🌄renewables at record-high 45%


1/9 carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-e…Image
UK electricity generation from fossil fuels has more than halved in a decade, falling to 91TWh in 2024 – the lowest level since 1955 and making up the lowest ever share of the total, just 29%

Meanwhile, renewable output has more than doubled, up 122% since 2014 to 143TWh
2/9 Image
The UK has cut gas-fired electricity generation by 13% in a decade – even as it was phasing out coal power – thanks to rising renewable output (mainly wind), along with lower demand + higher imports

More on falling demand here:

3/9 carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-el…Image
Read 9 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Oct 30, 2024
Incredible stat:

A single container ship of solar panels can provide as much electricity as more than 50 large LNG tankers of gas – or 100 large coal ships

There's many more insights in IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 – here's a selection 🧵

1/7 Image
Fossil fuels account for 40% of global shipping trade by volume – but only 10% by value

2/7 Image
The world's solar industry employs as many people as gas

Solar + EVs + batteries + wind combined employ as many as oil
3/7 Image
Read 8 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Sep 27, 2024
NEW: How the UK became the first G7 country to phase out coal power 🧵

Four key ingredients in UK's success:

❌🏭Stopping new coal
❤️‍🔥☢️🌄Building alternatives
💷Making polluters pay
📢Clear political signals

But there's much more to say…

1/n
interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…
Image
UK opened the world's first coal power plant in 1882 on London's Holborn Viaduct (pic)

⛰️ Since then, UK coal plants have burned 4.6bn tonnes of coal, emitting 10.4GtCO2
🌍 That's more CO2 than most countries have ever emitted, from all sources (!)

2/n
interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…
Image
But the UK was the world's first "coal-fired economy" – and that started long before coal-fired power

🥤Coal fuelled pumps to drain mines to get more coal
📈And as steam engines got more efficient, it got cheaper to use and extract ever more of the fuel, inspiring "Jevons paradox"

3/n
interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…Image
Read 10 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Aug 6, 2024
Oh dear oh dear, Andrew likes to pose as an energy expert, but *everything* he adds here is wrong

💷His biggest omission is that higher power imports means lower bills for consumers💷

Shall we count the other ways he's wrong?

Yes, let's, with added GIFs and some MATHS🧵
Let's begin with the facts. Andrew doesn't say so, but I am going to assume he is (correctly) quoting data from Montel Analytics, showing that UK electricity imports were 18.9TWh in H1 2024, up 82% from H2 2023

Here's some news coverage of the data:

current-news.co.uk/spike-british-…
Let's pause for a moment to congratulate Andrew for successfully quoting a report (albeit without attribution)

This is the only thing he did right.
Read 15 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(