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Kelvin.

@realkelvin07

7 Aug

LONG THREAD: First thing we need to understand is that Dangote Refineries is classified as critical national infrastructure (CNI): ‘‘These are institutions, bodies or structures that provide essential goods and services forming the backbone of an economy.’’

Each barrel of crude has 159 litres that produces 170 litres worth of derivatives after the hydrocarbons are heated and seperated through different processes. Here are the derivatives of crude:

43%: Gasoline (73 litres)
23%: Automotive Gasoline Oil or Diesel (40 litres)

9%: Jet A1 (15.5litres)
5%: Coke or Pepcoke (8.5litres)
4%: Heavy fuel Oil (6.8litres)
4%: Still gas (6.8litres)
3%: Liquefied Refinery Gas (5.1litres)
3%: Asphalt (5.1litres)
2%: Petrochemical feedstock (4.2litres)
2%: Lubricants (3.4litres)
1%: Kerosene (1.7litres)

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Kelvin.

@realkelvin07

6 Aug

Oil price today is $68 bpd. Let’s say at an $8 discount, Dangote will spend $39m buying 650k barrels of crude oil to refine daily.

Right now he doesn’t have any bloc that’s producing for him, so it makes perfect sense to do a crude oil for equity deal with the NNPC

Where the gov’t pays for it’s 20% stake in the refinery by supplying him the $39m of feedstock he needs daily in exchange for him supplying the NNPC with a predefined amount of products the country needs daily.

P.S: Nigeria needs 250k barrels worth of PMS, AGO & Jet A1 daily.

This way the NNPC doesn’t get to pay for their 20% valued at $2.74bn based on their discounted cash flow model of analysis.

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Kelvin.

@realkelvin07

13 Apr

Lithium Ore is a rock ore mineral available in Kogi, Nassarawa, Ekiti, Kwara, Cross Rivers, Oyo and Plateau. Of the many uses of this mineral ore our miners sell to intl brokers through Irrevocable Corporate Payment Order (ICPO) agreements, I'm going to focus on phone batteries

The global phone battery market in 2020 was worth $46.97bn. Interestingly China controls 60% of this market, and is the number one importer of Lithium Ore from Nigeria. So if our strength is not in building hardware like smartphones. Why can't we make the battery accessories?

In 2020, Chinese exports constituted 25.2% of all the imported goods that came into Nigeria, & today 1 out of every 4 ships that sails around the world has an eCO from China, meaning China controls 25% of global trade, and consequently 56% of the BRICS Bloc.

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Kelvin.

@realkelvin07

12 Apr

In 2020, the largest Chocolate companies made $107bn. 30% of their supply of Cocoa came from Ghana that earned $2bn. At a World Economic Conference in Davos last year, President Nana Akufo Addo told business and Political Leaders, that he doesn't see the future prosperity

Of Ghanians from this trend. Last month, the President banned all exports of Cocoa from Ghana.

Cocoa stakeholders tell their President they have 3 problems

• Interest rate in Ghana is between 18-20%
• Ghana imports dairy milk at a weak exchange rate
• Ghana imports sugar

The President says he will provide equipment financing for enterpreneurs who are ready to take the plunge. And subsidies for the importation of dairy milk and sugar.

Now I'm thinking, Nigeria would have been a market for the export of dairy milk and sugar to Ghana

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Kelvin.

@realkelvin07

10 Apr

The entire process of exporting

• NEPC certificate
• eCO (Certificate of origin)
• NXP (Net export proceeds)
• Origin warehouse for export clearance certificate
• Acquiring bill of laden from shipping line
• Checks from FPIS, NAFDAC, FMARD for quality assurance

All these needs to be packaged into a course for SMEs in a drive for exports. Small businesses need lecture on

• Processing raw material into semi finished or finished products
• How to acquire a foreign offtaker
• Difference between LCs, credit line and offtake agreement

What I see often is governments train their ambassadors on key processes, policies and controls their resident companies doing business in a local country will have to undergo to succeed. In rare cases, the ambassadors even organize events where they make introduction

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Kelvin.

@realkelvin07

22 Dec 20

In 2012 I flew with Vinay Mathani, the Group Managing Director & CEO of Churchgate Group on Arik Air from Calabar to Lagos, during our conversation, he told me that ''People always assume that our biggest business in Nigeria is Real Estate (because of the Iconic buildings)

On Lagos skyline, but our biggest biggest is actually fisheries'', I later discovered that Churchgate Group (A company that was founded in 1968) owns a subsidiary called Ocean Fisheries Nigeria Limited that does 6,000 tonnes of Shrimps per annum and exports to the Intl market.

Nigeria has a coastline of 853 kilometres bordering on the Gulf of Guinea & the Atlantic Ocean; the Coastline has the Niger Delta & the Strand Coast, the Niger Delta extends 500km from Benin to Imo River, the Strand Coast extends 85km from Imo River to Cross River Estuary.

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