Thread by @OAJonsson

One of Russia's best bets lies in its information operations to undermine Western unity, but how effective are they really?

I dug into info ops, and here's some main points from my latest paper for @EurLiberalForum & @fores_sverige

Paper --> fores.se/publikation/th…

What do I mean by Russia's best bet? As put by Chief of General Staff Gerasimov:

“information resources have become one of the most effective weapons. Their wide use allows in a few days to shake the situation in the country from within”

Or by Colonel General Zarudnitsky, head of the Military Academy:

“undoubtedly, the psychological weapon is the weapon of tomorrow”

However, there has been a split between those who are really worried about information operations and those who don't see any strong effects as the interaction with junk/fake content are 1) low, 2) catering to believers 3) unlikely to "turn" anyone, 4) impossible to measure.

That being said, several other studies show the systematic effects of information operations. They emphasise that:

1) They are effective in the long-run (e.g. Russian TV in Ukraine impacted voting)

2) Junk news outperformed quality news in Michigan for 2016 US election.

3) Modern disinformation "contribute to the system-level anti-deliberative properties of epistemic cynicism, techno-affective polarization, and pervasive inauthenticity”

(That is really just a fancy way of saying it's bad for democratic discourse)

4) Several researchers found that disinformation contributes to legitimacy problems in democracies and focus groups studies in Sweden show in particular how disinformation increased worries of polarisation and the belief in democracy.

Thus: my conclusion is that even though it's hard to find measurable influence from individual piece of news (such as the Internet Research Agency), and as it is incredibly tricky to track behavioural change from what is seen on the screen... -->

...we really do need to worry about the phenomenon of information operations and its impact on our democratic debates and perception of the world.

Some modest suggestions for governance:

1) Build long-term improvement of the information ecosystem (media literacy, fact-checking)
2) Increase demands of content moderation on Big Tech
3) Improve data privacy (to counteract micro-targeting)

Some modest suggestions for social media-platforms:

1) Decrease the production of junk content (strengthen KYC for instance)
2) Decrease the spread of junk content (just prioritising engagement is a perfect setup for disaster)

Ok, this thread is getting long and so, but read the paper and let me know what you think about it!

fores.se/wp-content/upl…

@threadreaderapp unroll si'll vous plait

Oh, and also. For those saying Info Ops have few or no effects:

Google and Facebook have become trillion dollar companies SOLELY on the premised that they can deliver an effective behavioural change through showing the right information to the right person (ads).