Thread by @MetroUK

Up to 740,000 urgent referrals for suspected cancer have been ‘missed’ by GPs in England during the course of the pandemic, according to new analysis.

metro.co.uk/2021/12/01/up-…

A report by the National Audit Office (NAO) also warned that the NHS backlog could swell to 12 million – or one in five people – by March 2025.

It currently stands at a record 5.83 million – up from 4.43 million in February 2020.

Charities said the impact on patients had been ‘devastating’, while medics said the report showed we are in the midst of ‘the biggest cancer catastrophe ever to hit the NHS’.

And MPs have warned ‘things will get worse before they get better’, with millions of patients who avoided seeing or were unable to see a doctor during the pandemic now ‘missing’ from waiting lists.

The NAO estimates that in England there were between 240,000 and 740,000 ‘missing’ urgent GP referrals for suspected cancer during the period of the pandemic up to September 2021.

In turn, between 35,000 and 60,000 fewer people started treatment for cancer than would have been expected.

By June 2021, cancer services had recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

In September ‘only 68% of patients needing care within 62 days of urgent referral by their GP were receiving that treatment on time’.

The NAO also said that there were between 7.6 million and 9.1 million ‘missing’ referrals for elective care over the same period.

The authors of the report said that it is uncertain how many ‘missing’ cases will return to the NHS for treatment, or how quickly the NHS will be able to resume usual activity.

It estimated that if 50% of missing referrals return to the NHS, and activity grows in line with pre-pandemic plans, the waiting list would reach 12 million by March 2025.

But if 50% of missing referrals return, and the NHS can increase activity by 10% more than was planned, the waiting list will be seven million in March 2025, according to the estimates.