Thread by @dhmontgomery

Another good news day in Minnesota’s #COVID19 reports: raw cases and positivity rate both trended down today. Our 7-day average positivity rate is now down to 8.8%.

A LOT could change, but right now it looks like we might have peaked circa Nov. 15.

That said, remember all our data is still messy due to the holidays. Case in point: deaths, which weren’t reported yesterday due to holiday staffing issues.

That meant @mnhealth reported 100 deaths today — a huge number — but that represents multiple days of data. Trend is flat

@mnhealth Deaths are actually down slightly from our peak last week, but this dataset is messy enough it’s too early to call a peak yet.

Reported #COVID19 hospital admissions have actually dipped a little, which isn’t implausible given cases apparently peaking a few weeks ago.

No sign of a drop yet in bed occupancy stats.

As of today’s report, 69% of Minnesota residents have at least one vaccine dose.

That includes 23% of 5-11-year-olds, and more than 60% of every other age group. (Except 0-4-year-olds, who are of course at 0%.)

Some big news today. @mnhealth has finally — after more than a year of requests on my part — started published #COVID19 testing data by sample date.

That means we can calculate sample-date positivity rate!

@mnhealth That said, sample-date positivity rate largely tracks report-date positivity, with three key differences:

1) Given reporting delays, report-date data lags sample-date data.
2) Sample-date data is smoother due to lack of reporting issues.
3) Sample-date data has a 1-week delay.

@mnhealth In the long run, sample-date is by far the best way to track the course of #COVID19 in Minnesota.

That said, it’s not ideal for tracking what’s new TODAY, so I’ll continue sharing positivity by report-date.