If you’re curious how likely #omicron is to have spread from South Africa or Botswana to different places, @DirkBrockmann and colleagues have done some interesting calculations based on the world aviation network from 08/2021
You can see that US seems a very likely destination
You can see that US seems a very likely destination
@DirkBrockmann That percentage number tells you "how likely an infected passenger from South Africa or Botswana travels to each country and exits the airport there".
So: "0.9% in Germany means that out of 1000 such individuals, 9 are expected to have Germany as their final destination."
So: "0.9% in Germany means that out of 1000 such individuals, 9 are expected to have Germany as their final destination."
@DirkBrockmann There are a ton of caveats, of course.
Most importantly: We don’t know where #omicron actually emerged (it may not have been SA or Botswana at all).
And the variant is in many places now, so of course it can spread from there too.
Most importantly: We don’t know where #omicron actually emerged (it may not have been SA or Botswana at all).
And the variant is in many places now, so of course it can spread from there too.
@DirkBrockmann But these kinds of models do help put into context what it means when certain countries do or do not find the the variant.
You can find a full explanation and a break-down of import risk in Europe by airport (and the people who did the work) here:
covid-19-mobility.org/reports/import…
You can find a full explanation and a break-down of import risk in Europe by airport (and the people who did the work) here:
covid-19-mobility.org/reports/import…
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