Talking of the narrow, perceived advantage which makes the eyes of certain politicians become round with fear & excitement, this recent poll of 2019 Conservative voters explains a lot of recent government behaviour. /3.
The highly visible Channel crossings issue, & some reactions to it, don’t reflect majority attitudes to refugees & immigration. An overwhelming majority of the UK public supports the right of refugees to asylum here. And negative attitudes to immigration are in the minority. /4.
Much received wisdom suggests that Chancellor Merkel’s humanitarian decision, in 2015, to allow hundreds of thousands of refugees (or potential refugees) into Germany, was an error. Yet German support for refugee asylum remains high. Have a look at who has how many refugees. /5.
🤡 If you wonder how the UK got itself into such a disastrous position, look no further than @SirSocks & @NJ_Timothy.
🤡 One, an ex Downing St press secretary & ambassador to the US.
🤡 The other, an ex Downing St co-chief of staff. /1.
🤡 Neither, if you credit what they say, understands the NI Protocol or the Good Friday Agreement. Or what was said by those they seek to mock for not understanding precisely those agreements.
🤡 I’d try to help out. But I know each is well past listening.
🤡 It’s deeply depressing & more than a little disturbing to realise, as they foolishly reveal themselves by how they now sound off in public, the nature of some of the individuals who were entrusted with advising ministers over the years. /3.
Northern Ireland is benefitting economically from the NI Protocol. The data are clear. So are the reasons for them.
A short 🧵.
(i) relative to GB, NI business is doing well because NI hasn’t been ripped out of the EU single market & customs union /1.
(ii) additionally, GB business is being diverted to/via NI, to avoid damage being caused in GB by it having being ripped out of the EU single market & customs union
So, NI is benefitting substantially.
Is this a reason to celebrate the NI Protocol? /2.
No.
The NIP is the result of the disastrous decision to go for the Johnson-Frost Brexit. What did that do? Oh yes: ripped the country out of the EU single market & customs union.
It’s reassuring & welcome that NI is doing well under the NIP arrangements. /3.
“The British public demand a clamp-down on migration”
🌍The truth
🔵An overwhelming majority of the British public support people being able to take refuge here.
A 🧵/1.
“The British public demand a clamp-down on migration”
🌍The truth
🔵This century* there’s never been a British majority negative toward immigration. The current figure is 26%.
*Since the European Social Survey began in 2002. /2.
“The British public demand a clamp-down on migration”
🌍The truth
🔵In the last 30 years* there’s never been a British majority worried about immigration as a key issue. Except for one brief moment in the run-up to the 2016 EU referendum.
A. Go it alone
B. Be civilised
C. Control your border
B+C: needs intense, sustained, multilateral, international cooperation. Forget A.
A+B: no effective border regime. Forget C.
A+C: be like East Germany. Forget civilisation.
P.S. I know: East Germany was, infamously, trying to keep people in, perhaps more than keep others out. (Actually it was both).
But the point’s the same: how do you “control” a border?
And stay civilised.
P.P.S. For the avoidance of doubt: I don’t just make this stuff up. I know you’d never think that …
Over many years, I worked at various times (mainly as a government official) on: asylum/migration; frontier controls; organised crime; maritime law; international development.