Thread by @asymmetricinfo

Looking at abortion opinion, it's actually quite striking how little men and women differ on this question. The whole pro-life is about men telling women what to do with their bodies" schtick simply isn't grounded in reality. news.gallup.com/poll/245618/ab…

Women are somewhat more likely to say abortion should be legal under all circumstances, but that's a minority view among women as well as men. The percentage of men and who say it should be illegal in all circumstances is fluctuates right around 20%, male or female

Men are more likely to self-id as pro-life, and women as pro-choice, but when you drill down into specifics, it's clear this stems from differences in labeling quite similar views.

norc.org/PDFs/GSS%20Rep…

In 2012, 71.5% of men and 69.4% of women said abortion should be legal if there is a strong possibility of a serious fetal defect.

43.1% of men, and 43.3% of women, say it should be legal for married women who don't want more children.

If a woman's life is endangered by the pregnancy? 83.5% of men, and 82.6% of women, say abortion should be legal.

(And at least a quarter of the remaining 17% is probably accounted for by the Lizardman Constant slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/12/noi…)

What about if a woman is low income and can't afford a child?

40.4% of men, and 40.9% of women, say abortion should be legal under those circumstances; 54.9% and 55.3%, respectively, say it should be illegal.

If the pregnancy is a result of rape, 71.1% of men, and 72.8% of women, say abortion should be legal. 23% of both men and women say it should be illegal in those circumstances.

Only 39% of both men and women said abortion should be legally allowed in cases where the woman is unmarried; 52.6% of men, and 56.8% of women, said illegal.

Some 40% of men, and 43.2% of women, said abortion should be legal for any reason; 57.9% of men, and 54.2% of women, said it should be illegal.

It's the only question in which there is a gap between men and women that might exceed measurement error. But most women still opposed

Basically, large majorities think abortion should be legal for "rape, incest, and life of the mother" type exceptions, plus severe fetal defects. Only a minority of Americans think abortions should be obtainable in order to avoid the major life disruption of a healthy pregnancy

This is important because this--the life disruption of the pregnancy--is what the upper middle class women who provide the energy and the donations behind pro-choice activism & writing mostly think and talk about.

They look at polls showing the majority of the public is pro-choice, or at least doesn't want Roe overturned, and conclude that if Roe is overturned, all those people will rise up and revolt against the GOP with the fervor they themselves will bring to the cause.

But most of the public doesn't really understand what Roe said,. Even if they did, the last 10-15% of your majority coalition on abortion only wants them for severe birth defects, ultra high risk pregnancies plus rape/incest. Which is also fine with much of the pro-life coalition

Thus I'm skeptical about dark prophecies of a legitimacy crisis for the Supreme Court should it overturn Roe--or the coming electoral bloodbath for the GOP.

Most people don't care about abortion as much as pro-choice Twitter. Many of those who do are on the other side.