Thread by @petermbenglish

1/ The presenter on @BBCRadio4's 5pm news programme, @BBCPM, asked a scientist about a libertarian argument. "A libertarian would say, 'If I don't get vaccinated, I'm the one whose going to suffer; why isn't it OK for you to let me make that decision for myself?'"

2/ There wasn't much time for an answer; and the virologist probably wasn't prepared, so let me have a go.

If you get vaccinated, you're roughly 1/3 as likely to infect somebody else. They might be one of the ones who couldn't get vaccinated, or in whom the vaccine won't work.

3/ In other words, you're twice as likely to infect somebody else if you don't get vaccinated, than if you do.

If the person you infect gets sick or dies because you refused to get vaccinated, that's down to your decision. They didn't decide to stop you from being vaccinated.

4/ The same applies with masks. Masks are good at preventing the wearer from infecting others. Not 100%, but still good - see this thread:

https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1414294003479089154

.

5/ They're not as good at protecting the wearer - certainly not unless the mask is an FFP2 mask or better. So, if you refuse to wear a mask, it makes relatively little difference to you (unless you would have worn an FFP2 or better mask), but you are more likely to infect others.

6/ (And don't tell me you'll wear a mask if you think you might have Covid-19. Most people are infected by somebody who didn't know they were infectious.)

7/ The people you infect as a result of refusing to wear a mask didn't choose for you to refuse to wear a mask. Other people suffer because you refuse the minor inconvenience.

And it doesn't stop there.

8/ Let me tell you about my friend with cancer.

He was in agony for months, because he couldn't get his operation.

Why couldn't he get his operation? Because all the ICUs were full of patients with Covid-19.

9/ After a major operation, many people need a short ICU stay - one and a half days or thereabouts, maybe three or four days after a particularly big operation.

Patients with Covid-19 who are admitted to ICU are typically there for three or more weeks.

10/ [Actually, the average length is only about 13 days, according to bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11… - although it's highly skewed by patients who die; it's the ones who survive who are there for many weeks).

So each Covid patient will prevent several operations from being done.

11/ Why don't we just open up more ICU beds?, you ask. But we can't magic up more ICU beds. It's not the physical equipment etc. - it's the highly specialised staff required; they can't be created from nowhere.

So each Covid patient will prevent operations from being done.

12/ Operations for people living in agony, needing hip operations.

Operations for people needing life-saving cancer operations.

13/ (My friend was lucky. He did, eventually, after a long, anxious wait, in agony, he had his operation to remove his tumour and the parts of him it had attached to, and to get patched up so he can just-about-function, albeit with ongoing neuropathic pain, ulcers, and stomata.

14/ But the delay meant a much larger, longer, and more damaging operation, leaving him far more impaired, and requiring far more NHS resources than would have needed to be the case if it could have been done promptly.

15/ And he was one of the lucky ones. Many other cancer patients will die for want of alife-saving operation. )

If you refuse to get vaccinated, you get Covid, and you need critical care - well you and your family will suffer, but I guess you've made your choice.

16/ But what about all the people denied urgently needed care because of you?

What about the vast cost of your care?

17/ Why should taxpayers fork out the >£1500 per day, plus drugs and then rehabilitation costs because you exercised what you perceived to be your right to remain unvaccinated?

18/ Perhaps we should copy Singapore and require people who refuse vaccination to pay for their own Covid-related healthcare. theguardian.com/world/2021/nov…

19/ Or perhaps we should require people who refuse vaccination to take out healthcare insurance to cover it (although the likelihood of getting Covid-19 may be so high that insurance would be unaffordable). Look at the USA: cnbc.com/2021/10/05/how…

20/ The libertarian "it's my right…" argument has to be balanced against the harm you cause to other people.

And if one particular individual never goes on to infect another person, or to require ICU care - does that invalidate my arguments?

21/ No, it doesn't, because, ON AVERAGE, people who remain unvaccinated are more likely to get sick and fill ICU beds for long periods, and more likely to infect others.

We're not worrying about just one person refusing to get vaccinated or to wear a mask.

22/ We're worrying about the fact that vaccine- and mask-refusers are a significant minority, and on average they harm other people.

@threadreaderapp unroll

If you read my thread on soi-disant "libertarian" arguments, you might appreciate @BonehouseWasps' piece on "Fibertarians": twitter.com/BonehouseWasps…

(My thread: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1466480…)