Uncontrolled spread gives Covid opportunities to evolve. The emergence of Omicron has highlighted the urgency of addressing low vaccination coverage in Africa and other places. Lack of supply has been a major barrier for months, but it's not the only one. 1/thread
Most people in high-income countries have been fully vaccinated but less than 10% of Africa’s population has. That puts the entire world at higher risk of new, potentially dangerous variants. Here are some of the challenges beyond supply that countries face. 2/
First, vaccine supply is unpredictable. Countries don’t know how much vaccine to expect and are often given short notice of shipments. Advance planning is crucial and we need better systems for projecting vaccine delivery. 3/
There’s also been underinvestment in vaccine distribution. Countries must manage several types of vaccine, each with different shelf lives and handling requirements (including cold storage). 4/
In addition, most donations to date don’t include necessary supplies such as syringes and diluent, or cover freight costs. 5/
Competing priorities. Covid isn’t the only threat many countries are facing. Outbreaks of measles and Ebola are urgent problems. There’s a need to catch up on polio vaccinations, HIV, TB, RCH treatment and other services, which were impacted by the pandemic. 6/
Covid has placed significant strain on health care systems that are already overburdened. 7/
Although high-income countries can afford the cost of vaccinating people against Covid, in more than half of African countries where estimates are available, the cost of vaccination exceeds the TOTAL government health expenditure, according to @CGDev. bit.ly/3IahjIY 8/
In some countries, low perception of Covid risk makes vaccination campaigns harder. We discuss in new #PERCAfrica country briefs. Governments must communicate clearly the benefits of vaccination using relevant messengers and messages. preventepidemics.org/perc 9/
These problems are hard, but solvable. With time, attention, predictable supply, and financial and material support from high-income countries, Africa can vaccinate a high proportion of their adult population. 10/
We can’t keep getting lulled into a false sense that the end of the pandemic is near. It’s not over, as Omicron has reminded us. Millions of lives are at stake—not just in Africa, but in every region. 11/end

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More from @DrTomFrieden

28 Nov
B.1.1.529 (Omicron): Likely first concerning Covid variant since Delta, though still many unknowns. The emergence of this variant is a shot across the bow and underscores why it’s so urgent we address vaccine inequity. Here’s what we know and don’t know about Omicron. 1/thread
The South Africa Health Ministry did the right thing and its actions will save lives: quickly identified Omicron through sequencing where there is evidence of increased transmission and immediately shared this information with the world. @WHO labeled it a Variant of Concern. 2/
The rapidity with which the Omicron variant has become predominant in Gauteng Province is concerning. Evidence from other provinces suggests the variant has already spread across South Africa. B.1.1.529 has now been detected in samples from patients in multiple countries. 3/
Read 9 tweets
20 Nov
Estimates of how common long Covid symptoms are for young people vary, but as many as half of people with infection may be affected. The virus is unpredictable and can cause serious long-term physical and mental damage—even to people who were previously healthy. Get vaccinated!
In a large study that tracked symptoms among 200,000 people post-Covid, nearly 50% of those age 10 to 21 had one or more symptoms at least three months after getting infected. bit.ly/3DBt34v
Another large study which focused primarily on children and young people, found that about one in seven (14%) had at least three symptoms three months after diagnosis. bit.ly/3qVU13z
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
What’s next for Covid? Will cases spike again? Should we expect another variant? We can predict what will happen over the next few weeks, but beyond that the picture gets murky. A thread on the big unknowns and on what we DO know. 1/
In the US, cases will likely continue to fall for the next 3-4 weeks. But anyone who says with confidence they know what will happen after that doesn’t understand Covid. The virus has surprised us many times before. There’s no reason to think it won’t continue to surprise us. 2/
But first, let’s be clear about one thing we DO know: our vaccines are working extremely well. Data consistently show that unvaccinated people have a greater risk of getting infected and a MUCH greater risk of spreading Covid to others, and developing severe disease. 3/
Read 20 tweets
2 Oct
Pfizer and Moderna deserve credit for responding quickly to the most disruptive health crisis in a century and producing great vaccines. But failure to transfer technology will tarnish their reputations, prolong the pandemic, and could result in millions of deaths. 1/thread
mRNA vaccines are extremely safe, remarkably effective, & have saved hundreds of thousands of lives. They are our most powerful tool to end the pandemic. They’re easier to tweak for variants, quicker to produce, and less likely to suffer production problems than other vaccines.2/
mRNA vaccines appear to be even safer than other vaccines - which are very safe - and even more effective. mRNA vaccine production is our insurance policy against new, dangerous variants and against production delays with other vaccines. 3/
Read 27 tweets
18 Sep
Herd immunity to Covid? Maybe an impossible dream. We need to reframe our approach to the pandemic and learn more, and limit the death and disruption. Here’s how. 1/thread
No one knows what will happen next in the pandemic. Longer-term predictions are just guesses. But we do know the endgame has shifted. Eradication is not possible. Even control will be difficult. We can reduce transmission and severe disease, but we can’t eliminate them. 2/
Today an FDA committee voted to recommend booster doses of Covid vaccines for people ages 65 and older and those at high risk of severe disease. Unlike Israel, they decided there is currently insufficient evidence of the need or benefit for everyone to get boosters. 3/
Read 25 tweets
3 Sep
Delta’s sharp rise in the UK and Israel presaged the large wave we’re facing in the US. But in key ways, our epidemic curve looks different. I’ll explain how it’s different, why, and what this tells us about the future of the pandemic. 1/thread
In the US, we haven’t tested at nearly the rate of the UK and Israel. We test at less than one third their rate of testing. Because of this, we have likely missed A LOT more cases. 2/
This may explain why our curve doesn’t go quite as high as Israel’s or the UK’s. The number of actual infections is likely much higher (at least 3X, maybe more than 5X) than the number of reported cases in the US. 3/
Read 12 tweets

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