The second appearance of @balajis on the @tferriss show is the most important podcast ever recorded.
It's also 5 hours long.
So if you're short on time, here are the most important resources and ideas you need to know: 🧵
It's also 5 hours long.
So if you're short on time, here are the most important resources and ideas you need to know: 🧵
Balaji has been described as "Einstein if he had the internet."
He builds his model of the world by looking at:
∙ what's rising?
∙ what's falling?
He builds his model of the world by looking at:
∙ what's rising?
∙ what's falling?
What is rising?
1. Technology
∙ drones
∙ biomedicine
∙ AI
∙ robotics
∙ crypto
2. Asia
∙ China
∙ India
In 2019, Asia was already more than 50% of global GDP (in PPP).
Asia is not the future, it's the present.
mckinsey.com/featured-insig…
1. Technology
∙ drones
∙ biomedicine
∙ AI
∙ robotics
∙ crypto
2. Asia
∙ China
∙ India
In 2019, Asia was already more than 50% of global GDP (in PPP).
Asia is not the future, it's the present.
mckinsey.com/featured-insig…
What's falling?
1. The West (US and EU) as a % of global GDP
Yet all the institutions set up half a decade ago assume Western dominance
e.g. the UN is Russia, UK, US, France & China.
But there is no India, Brazil or Japan.
1. The West (US and EU) as a % of global GDP
Yet all the institutions set up half a decade ago assume Western dominance
e.g. the UN is Russia, UK, US, France & China.
But there is no India, Brazil or Japan.
2. US state capacity, internal cohesion & military strength.
∙ the US military-industrial complex is like cardboard. Push it over and it falls.
∙ with billions allocated to biodefense, COVID was a military defeat for the US.
∙ the US military-industrial complex is like cardboard. Push it over and it falls.
∙ with billions allocated to biodefense, COVID was a military defeat for the US.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1450611265722728451
∙ in Afghanistan, the US had 20 years and $2T, total air superiority & surveillance and a timeline negotiated with the Taliban...
... yet its withdrawal was the stuff of amateurs.
Rather than winning everywhere without fighting, the US is fighting everywhere without winning.
... yet its withdrawal was the stuff of amateurs.
Rather than winning everywhere without fighting, the US is fighting everywhere without winning.
* On China*
∙ China is the exception to the Sovereign Individual thesis.
∙ They want root over everything. And they're the only state that's ruthless enough to be able to do it.
∙ If it's not made in China, they look at it with suspicion.
∙ China is the exception to the Sovereign Individual thesis.
∙ They want root over everything. And they're the only state that's ruthless enough to be able to do it.
∙ If it's not made in China, they look at it with suspicion.
∙ They were early on their great firewall and ban on social networks
∙ Instead, they set up parallel social networks where the state has root access.
∙ Instead, they set up parallel social networks where the state has root access.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1448645862008131584
∙ their thesis is simple: if a nation-state has the right to control physical packets crossing its border, it should also have the right to control any digital packets.
∙ based on their thesis of internet sovereignty, the Great Firewall is like a customs for the internet.
∙ based on their thesis of internet sovereignty, the Great Firewall is like a customs for the internet.
∙ China witnessed the loss of control of post-USSR Russia and the US gaining power.
to better understand China's consciousness about the need for state control, read:
palladiummag.com/2021/10/11/the…
to better understand China's consciousness about the need for state control, read:
palladiummag.com/2021/10/11/the…
China has had an evolving tension between state control and capitalism:
∙ Under Mao, China had revolutionary communism.
∙ Under Deng, Jiang and Hu it had internationalist capitalism.
∙ But under Xi, it has national socialism and militarism. Economics is no longer first.
∙ Under Mao, China had revolutionary communism.
∙ Under Deng, Jiang and Hu it had internationalist capitalism.
∙ But under Xi, it has national socialism and militarism. Economics is no longer first.
For a long time, China had a "keep your head down" approach.
They didn't have the power to protest.
But that's no longer the case.
China openly makes use of Wolf Warrior diplomacy, which is aggressive and combative.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_warr…
They didn't have the power to protest.
But that's no longer the case.
China openly makes use of Wolf Warrior diplomacy, which is aggressive and combative.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_warr…
China is using American Hollywood-style techniques to depict a renewed sense of nationalism.
Today, the biggest movie in the world is the Battle at Lake Changjin.
It depicts the defeat of the US army in the Korean War by China.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Battl…
Today, the biggest movie in the world is the Battle at Lake Changjin.
It depicts the defeat of the US army in the Korean War by China.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Battl…
In the West, an ambitious young person wants to "change the world"
But in China, they want to "serve the Motherland."
In fact, you can get canceled for insufficient nationalism.
theatlantic.com/international/…
But in China, they want to "serve the Motherland."
In fact, you can get canceled for insufficient nationalism.
theatlantic.com/international/…
A startup analogy: in 2007, Microsoft invested $150 million in Facebook to keep it from Google.
But then Facebook grew to become a peer to Microsoft itself.
Similarly, the US made a startup investment in China under Nixon - because the USSR was the number one rival to the US.
But then Facebook grew to become a peer to Microsoft itself.
Similarly, the US made a startup investment in China under Nixon - because the USSR was the number one rival to the US.
However, just like Facebook became hostile to Microsoft, China executed well and have the market size to become the biggest player in the world and dictate the rules.
Now, some people point to the rise of Japan and say - why won't the rise of China turn out the same way? 👇
Now, some people point to the rise of Japan and say - why won't the rise of China turn out the same way? 👇
The big difference between China and Japan is that Japan is literally occupied by the US military.
They're an independently run subsidiary of the US.
"NATO was designed to keep the Americans in, the Germans down and the Russians out."
They're an independently run subsidiary of the US.
"NATO was designed to keep the Americans in, the Germans down and the Russians out."
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1465862548566077441
Because China wants to maintain root, they'll likely have short-medium-term advantages.
A possible scenario in the medium future is:
∙ Chinese control
∙ American anarchy
∙ Indian intermediate.
Centralized China VS decentralized West.
A possible scenario in the medium future is:
∙ Chinese control
∙ American anarchy
∙ Indian intermediate.
Centralized China VS decentralized West.
The big question after Afghanistan is:
would the US lose to China?
From Taiwan's view, it's questionable whether the US will defend them.
Both the left and the right want withdrawal from 'forever wars'.
But wars happen when things are questionable.
would the US lose to China?
From Taiwan's view, it's questionable whether the US will defend them.
Both the left and the right want withdrawal from 'forever wars'.
But wars happen when things are questionable.
One possible solution is for China to force Taiwan to hold a referendum to unify with China.
Another solution is an actual military conflict where maybe the US doesn't intervene at all.
Even in a military conflict, the US would likely lose:
amazon.com/2034-Novel-Nex…
Another solution is an actual military conflict where maybe the US doesn't intervene at all.
Even in a military conflict, the US would likely lose:
amazon.com/2034-Novel-Nex…
"Over the past decade in US war games against China, the United States has a nearly perfect record.
We have lost almost every single time.”
amazon.com/Kill-Chain-Def…
We have lost almost every single time.”
amazon.com/Kill-Chain-Def…
And if the US prints money just to lose, it could threaten its economic power because its currency won't be backed by guns anymore.
consultingbyrpm.com/blog/2013/12/k…
consultingbyrpm.com/blog/2013/12/k…
Btw, if this happens, the US could move to repeat Executive Order 6102 and attempt to seize all bitcoin.
This could lead to more civil unrest.
amazon.com/Voluptuous-Pan…
This could lead to more civil unrest.
amazon.com/Voluptuous-Pan…
On the technological front, China has taken itself out of crypto.
The US or India could come in and fill the gap.
But the future of hard power is CCP. The future of hard money is BTC.
In both cases, the US has lost control.
The US or India could come in and fill the gap.
But the future of hard power is CCP. The future of hard money is BTC.
In both cases, the US has lost control.
CCP = communist capital = you must submit
Crypto capital = you must be sovereign (hold your head up high)
NYT = woke capital = you must sympathize (you are powerful, so you must apologize)
Crypto capital = you must be sovereign (hold your head up high)
NYT = woke capital = you must sympathize (you are powerful, so you must apologize)
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1456344147103653889
Woke is more subtle.
Instead of "we're powerful" (like the CCP), they say "you're powerful."
But it ends in the same submission as CCP.
Because with the algebra of intersectionality, everybody is an oppressor on some axis:
white, male, straight, cis, wealthy, etc.
Instead of "we're powerful" (like the CCP), they say "you're powerful."
But it ends in the same submission as CCP.
Because with the algebra of intersectionality, everybody is an oppressor on some axis:
white, male, straight, cis, wealthy, etc.
Any of those to the extremes are bad.
e.g. total sovereignty is total distrust of everyone else.
But it doesn't work, because we're social animals.
It's a triangle of submission, sympathy, and sovereignty.
We need to carve out a decentralized center.
e.g. total sovereignty is total distrust of everyone else.
But it doesn't work, because we're social animals.
It's a triangle of submission, sympathy, and sovereignty.
We need to carve out a decentralized center.
China has state-controlled press.
The US has press-controlled state.
"he doxes, she leaks, but the New York Times investigates"
The US had corporate take-over of the state in 1970 when the Washington Post, NYT and WSJ essentially got Nixon fired.
The US has press-controlled state.
"he doxes, she leaks, but the New York Times investigates"
The US had corporate take-over of the state in 1970 when the Washington Post, NYT and WSJ essentially got Nixon fired.
https://twitter.com/alexmoneton/status/1441780663384870912
"impact journalism" is all about throwing stones at people that lead to reforms.
It's for-profit intelligence work.
It's for-profit intelligence work.
* On Sovereignty, Progress & Civilization *
It's too hard for anyone to grow their own food, hold their own currency, get their own water, etc.
Yes, we're individuals, but we're also social animals.
It's too hard for anyone to grow their own food, hold their own currency, get their own water, etc.
Yes, we're individuals, but we're also social animals.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1341962711416991747?s=20
However, robotics reduce the necessary skill and size of societies.
In 2040-2050, you could likely go off the grid completely but in a modern way.
Open-source ecology is a kit of 30 open source machines to rebuild civilization from scratch.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Sour…
In 2040-2050, you could likely go off the grid completely but in a modern way.
Open-source ecology is a kit of 30 open source machines to rebuild civilization from scratch.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_Sour…
This is important because the progress of civilization isn't guaranteed.
fallofcivilizationspodcast.com
fallofcivilizationspodcast.com
Gobekli Tepe is the oldest civilization ever recorded. It got pretty advanced, but then it just collapsed.
This has happened a few other times in history.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6be…
This has happened a few other times in history.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6be…
More recently, Christianity was like communism to the Roman Empire:
∙ it said slaves are good and "sooner a rich man go through the eye of a needle than get to Heaven"
∙ it deligitimated and collapsed the Western Roman Empire - which was followed by the Dark Ages
∙ it said slaves are good and "sooner a rich man go through the eye of a needle than get to Heaven"
∙ it deligitimated and collapsed the Western Roman Empire - which was followed by the Dark Ages
Some people - anarcho-primitists - correctly diagnose problems of modern society:
e.g. diabetes, eating poorly, testosterone counts down, etc.
...and advocate going back to the land.
But they reject technology and romanticize living on farms.
e.g. diabetes, eating poorly, testosterone counts down, etc.
...and advocate going back to the land.
But they reject technology and romanticize living on farms.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1299379751103000576?s=20
On the other side of the spectrum, transhumanists say:
"what makes us human is technology"
e.g. we outsourced our metabolism to cooking and therefore could evolve in a different way
amazon.com/Catching-Fire-…
"what makes us human is technology"
e.g. we outsourced our metabolism to cooking and therefore could evolve in a different way
amazon.com/Catching-Fire-…
The difference between us and animals is technology.
Our destiny is to go to the stars.
Our true ancestors were single-cell organisms.
We are the equivalent to the next level of human evolution.
Our destiny is to go to the stars.
Our true ancestors were single-cell organisms.
We are the equivalent to the next level of human evolution.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1339319028263788544?s=20
So te way we survive the transition and possible collapse of nation-states is by:
∙ unbundling countries where people feel they have nothing in common
∙ rebundling them into groups that do have something in common.
Pax Americana will likely fall in the process.
∙ unbundling countries where people feel they have nothing in common
∙ rebundling them into groups that do have something in common.
Pax Americana will likely fall in the process.
The process of reformation has happened before:
1. printing press
2. reformation
3. counter-Reformation
4. religious Wars
5. peace of Westphalia
6. nation state
1. printing press
2. reformation
3. counter-Reformation
4. religious Wars
5. peace of Westphalia
6. nation state
Now we have:
1. Internet
2. Satoshi Nakamoto
3. Decentralization
4. Counter decentralization
5. Potential coin wars
6. American anarchy
7. ?
8. Network states
The counter-decentralization (de-platforming, unbanking, etc.) is likely going to fail in the US and succeed in China:
1. Internet
2. Satoshi Nakamoto
3. Decentralization
4. Counter decentralization
5. Potential coin wars
6. American anarchy
7. ?
8. Network states
The counter-decentralization (de-platforming, unbanking, etc.) is likely going to fail in the US and succeed in China:
China has root access, no recourse or civil liberties.
The CCP is run like a ruthless corporation.
On the contrary, the US establishment selects for actors and propagandists, not capital allocators who look ahead.
Everybody who is an influencer is a celebrity.
The CCP is run like a ruthless corporation.
On the contrary, the US establishment selects for actors and propagandists, not capital allocators who look ahead.
Everybody who is an influencer is a celebrity.
In the US, every new event is a surprise:
∙ Lehman
∙ Trump
∙ COVID
∙ Facebook
∙ Afghanistan, etc.
People are dismissive of what they don't understand - because they don't know how to build stuff.
And when it gets big, they panic.
qz.com/49528/why-face…
∙ Lehman
∙ Trump
∙ COVID
∙ Afghanistan, etc.
People are dismissive of what they don't understand - because they don't know how to build stuff.
And when it gets big, they panic.
qz.com/49528/why-face…
History tends to repeat in 80-year because things drop out of living memory.
People are wired to struggle, and if they don't struggle, they'll invent struggle against prosperity to make it harder:
amazon.com/End-History-La…
People are wired to struggle, and if they don't struggle, they'll invent struggle against prosperity to make it harder:
amazon.com/End-History-La…
A likely, and good outcome, is that rather than with violence, the US breaks up in a peaceful/bloodless way.
As of now, the tyrany doesn't have enough state capacity to sustain for long.
As of now, the tyrany doesn't have enough state capacity to sustain for long.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1463461241419038720?s=20
In the 20th century, tyrany was a problem because we had both left and right authoritarians.
Freedom was precious.
In the 21st century, the rubber band will snap, the tyrany will vanish, and we'll be left with anarchy.
Then freedom won't be precious - leadership will be.
Freedom was precious.
In the 21st century, the rubber band will snap, the tyrany will vanish, and we'll be left with anarchy.
Then freedom won't be precious - leadership will be.
If China has centralized censorship by the state, the US has decentralized censorship by corporation.
China is lawful evil - like a ballet of violence.
The US is chaotic evil with no coordination or strategy of any kind.
China is lawful evil - like a ballet of violence.
The US is chaotic evil with no coordination or strategy of any kind.
An empire at its zenith (the US) blew its largest lead in human history and lost to the Taliban.
Vietnam had a superpower sponsor, and so defeat was more excusable.
But who's backing the Taliban? No one.
Vietnam had a superpower sponsor, and so defeat was more excusable.
But who's backing the Taliban? No one.
The internal conflicts of major Western allies (US, UK, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, France) are being aired in public.
The issues are much deeper than previously thought.
The US and EU are now taking separate stances on China.
In the meantime, China is flexing 👇
The issues are much deeper than previously thought.
The US and EU are now taking separate stances on China.
In the meantime, China is flexing 👇
It built a hospital in 10 days during COVID...
... but it will take Australia 20 years to get their first nuclear submarine.
Military strength happens in the real world.
But the US is like an old man whose bones don't heal as fast anymore.
sotonye.substack.com/p/if-einstein-…
... but it will take Australia 20 years to get their first nuclear submarine.
Military strength happens in the real world.
But the US is like an old man whose bones don't heal as fast anymore.
sotonye.substack.com/p/if-einstein-…
*On the future of the nation-state*
The US is losing control over domestic and international affairs.
Cities & states (e.g. Texas, Wyoming, Colorado, Florida, etc.) will adopt legislation written by entrepreneurs to turn them into sanctuaries for crypto.
The US is losing control over domestic and international affairs.
Cities & states (e.g. Texas, Wyoming, Colorado, Florida, etc.) will adopt legislation written by entrepreneurs to turn them into sanctuaries for crypto.
Internationally, countries are standing up to the US and taking radically different stances on e.g. crypto (Switzerland, El Salvador)
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1444256591935537157?s=20
Right now, the government has guns and households don't - so the government can seize money and coerce people to do things.
But companies, currencies, cities, countries, communities are all becoming the same thing - projections of social networks.
But companies, currencies, cities, countries, communities are all becoming the same thing - projections of social networks.
Post-COVID, people are more conscious about the policies of the state they live in.
With digital ownership (e.g. bitcoin & NFTs) and remote work, the state has less leverage over people.
With digital ownership (e.g. bitcoin & NFTs) and remote work, the state has less leverage over people.
As a result, the future business model of governments is subscription models for residency (and inflation - more on that below).
This is similar to the model of swiss cantons.
This is similar to the model of swiss cantons.
It's more humane for a country to deplatform you for a while if you break the law rather than put you in jail
e.g. your subscription to the country gets suspended.
e.g. your subscription to the country gets suspended.
To start your subscription, you might need a deposit, like posting a bond.
But you need to retain your right to exit, which is why bitcoin & crypto is important.
But you need to retain your right to exit, which is why bitcoin & crypto is important.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1453601805754007556?s=20
Now - onto inflation 👇
Digital wallets mean that in the future, every asset will compete against every other asset (CBDCs, bonds, NFTs, video game potions, BTc, etc.)
So when every asset becomes liquid and can be exchanged against another, you won't need to convert into fiat.
Digital wallets mean that in the future, every asset will compete against every other asset (CBDCs, bonds, NFTs, video game potions, BTc, etc.)
So when every asset becomes liquid and can be exchanged against another, you won't need to convert into fiat.
Every asset will need to be competitive - including local assets.
If not, they'll die.
The same happened when the news went digital.
Every newspaper that just reprinted AP stories became uncompetitive.
The weak ones died.
If not, they'll die.
The same happened when the news went digital.
Every newspaper that just reprinted AP stories became uncompetitive.
The weak ones died.
Cities will be competing for citizens.
City coins will be the new municipal equity.
City value will be determined by coins.
City coins will be the new municipal equity.
City value will be determined by coins.
This creates incentives for city managers to manage quantitative data:
Are people:
∙ subscribing
∙ sharing in the prosperity
∙ buying a piece of property
∙ long/short the city
Currencies of countries, companies, and cities will trade alongside every other digital asset.
Are people:
∙ subscribing
∙ sharing in the prosperity
∙ buying a piece of property
∙ long/short the city
Currencies of countries, companies, and cities will trade alongside every other digital asset.
People who buy a stake in the entire city rather than in a local house when they move somewhere, now have an economic interest in the well-being of everyone, not just themselves.
It's no longer patriotism, but an economic transaction.
It's no longer patriotism, but an economic transaction.
So you'll have:
∙ your subscription to a city (digital passport, driver's license, currency, login, property rights, marriage & birth certificates, etc.)
∙ inflation to stabilize a fiat currency against a basket of goods
∙ your subscription to a city (digital passport, driver's license, currency, login, property rights, marriage & birth certificates, etc.)
∙ inflation to stabilize a fiat currency against a basket of goods
The currency will actually be flat against a basket of goods over time.
To maintain that flatness, you'll need some of the money in reserve to be depleted over time.
But if inflation becomes more than what's necessary to maintain price stability, you exit to BTC.
To maintain that flatness, you'll need some of the money in reserve to be depleted over time.
But if inflation becomes more than what's necessary to maintain price stability, you exit to BTC.
Bitcoin at $10-$100 trillion is a world government that constrains every state.
This is what gold used to be - the thing that kings wanted.
BTC should be compared not to gold today, but what gold used to be.
This is what gold used to be - the thing that kings wanted.
BTC should be compared not to gold today, but what gold used to be.
∙ the ability to exit
∙ software
are fundamentally the resolutions to a disaligned world.
wired.com/2013/11/softwa…
∙ software
are fundamentally the resolutions to a disaligned world.
wired.com/2013/11/softwa…
You don't want 51% democracy. You want 100%
If not, you get what we have now - digital warfare - deplatforming, unbanking, canceling, etc.
genius.com/Balaji-sriniva…
If not, you get what we have now - digital warfare - deplatforming, unbanking, canceling, etc.
genius.com/Balaji-sriniva…
The coming conflict isn't Republican VS Democrat.
It's centralization versus decentralization.
It will have bitcoin maximalists on one side, and woke capital on the other.
medium.com/s/state-of-the…
It's centralization versus decentralization.
It will have bitcoin maximalists on one side, and woke capital on the other.
medium.com/s/state-of-the…
Bitcoin has implications for how you live:
∙ debt is bad
∙ inflation is bad
∙ equity is good
∙ capitalism is good.
In the long-run, it will have implications like the Quran, the Communist Manifesto or the American Declaration.
∙ debt is bad
∙ inflation is bad
∙ equity is good
∙ capitalism is good.
In the long-run, it will have implications like the Quran, the Communist Manifesto or the American Declaration.
In the same vein that there are:
∙ Sunni and Shiites
∙ Protestants and Catholics
there will be different schools of thought
∙ BTC
∙ ETH, etc.
∙ Sunni and Shiites
∙ Protestants and Catholics
there will be different schools of thought
∙ BTC
∙ ETH, etc.
*Rapid-Fire Questions*
∙ Between BTC and ETH, buy BTC if you can only choose one.
∙ Bitcoin is the first and has a disappeared founder (you're not submitting to anybody)
∙ BTC is like an element like gold. Everything else is a technology company. Nothing competes with BTC.
∙ Between BTC and ETH, buy BTC if you can only choose one.
∙ Bitcoin is the first and has a disappeared founder (you're not submitting to anybody)
∙ BTC is like an element like gold. Everything else is a technology company. Nothing competes with BTC.
It's possible that there are some security issues with the code still but any technical attack is unlikely.
The only risk to BTC going forward is regulatory...
...yet not likely to harm it because the US is losing its control over the rest of the world.
The only risk to BTC going forward is regulatory...
...yet not likely to harm it because the US is losing its control over the rest of the world.
Buy Bitcoin, sell maximalism.
Yes to:
∙ Exit the FED
∙ Stop the bailouts
∙ Return to sound money
∙ Build a voluntary society
∙ End the welfare-warfare state
∙ Bitcoin is a global reserve currency
∙ Bitcoin is an epochal technical breakthrough
Yes to:
∙ Exit the FED
∙ Stop the bailouts
∙ Return to sound money
∙ Build a voluntary society
∙ End the welfare-warfare state
∙ Bitcoin is a global reserve currency
∙ Bitcoin is an epochal technical breakthrough
But BTC is the only digital asset?
No.
You can cheer both immutability (like bitcoin) AND programmability (like ETH).
But BTC maximalism is the most important political movement in the world that will gain huge traction in the coming years 👇
No.
You can cheer both immutability (like bitcoin) AND programmability (like ETH).
But BTC maximalism is the most important political movement in the world that will gain huge traction in the coming years 👇
It says:
∙ The FED is a scam
∙ All the printed money means many of the corporations are a scam
∙ Censorship is a scam
∙ Lots of things the state is saying are false
∙ Everybody who's rich are cantillionaires
∙ The FED is a scam
∙ All the printed money means many of the corporations are a scam
∙ Censorship is a scam
∙ Lots of things the state is saying are false
∙ Everybody who's rich are cantillionaires
https://twitter.com/SahilBloom/status/1460242310420123651
By the way, the Cantillon effect could lead to governments cheering inflation as it wipes out all fortunes and debts - it's like a jubilee.
*Bullish on Founders - particularly Facebook & Twitter/Square*
It's possible Twitter and Square will merge, and build Bitcoin Ethereum into Twitter.
And Zuck is a founder who's built a 3 billion person network from scratch, taking a lot of hits on the way.
It's possible Twitter and Square will merge, and build Bitcoin Ethereum into Twitter.
And Zuck is a founder who's built a 3 billion person network from scratch, taking a lot of hits on the way.
Novi has a much better chance of working than Libra because it's natively crypto.
Zuck has been contrarian and right many times before - like on Occulus and Instagram.
about.fb.com/news/2020/05/w…
Zuck has been contrarian and right many times before - like on Occulus and Instagram.
about.fb.com/news/2020/05/w…
The journalists who were wrong about this are not wrong by 50%.
Their mental model of the world is often off by 10,000 or 100,000X.
Yet these journalists claim to be the source of truth and democracy.
That's why we need citizen journalism.
1729.com/a-newsletter-t…
Their mental model of the world is often off by 10,000 or 100,000X.
Yet these journalists claim to be the source of truth and democracy.
That's why we need citizen journalism.
1729.com/a-newsletter-t…
The monopoly on truth is upstream of the monopoly of violence.
You don't want a thousand retweets for "truth".
You want two or three independent confirmations from economically disaligned actors.
You don't want a thousand retweets for "truth".
You want two or three independent confirmations from economically disaligned actors.
* On Info, Bio, Robo, Astro, Politico*
Media corporations have abandoned many niches in favor of wokism.
With decentralized media (@viamirror, @substackinc, @ghost) have an incentive to start their own media and give a different message.
Media corporations have abandoned many niches in favor of wokism.
With decentralized media (@viamirror, @substackinc, @ghost) have an incentive to start their own media and give a different message.
India could become a media superpower (animation, visual effects) the same way China ascended from doing cheap plastic stuff.
It could become the bright sun to the black mirror of the West.
theweek.in/news/entertain…
It could become the bright sun to the black mirror of the West.
theweek.in/news/entertain…
*Bio - telemedecine can unlock medical tourism, fee for service medecine, which is much better than insurance.
But bio is also quantified self - transhumanism, reversing aging, brain-machine interface, genetic engineering, etc.
But bio is also quantified self - transhumanism, reversing aging, brain-machine interface, genetic engineering, etc.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1281989289232879618?s=20
* Robo - currently underestimated because it's being done on the industrial side of things
e.g. agriculture, manufacturing, farming, retail, etc.
but it's going to accelerate rapidly.
e.g. agriculture, manufacturing, farming, retail, etc.
but it's going to accelerate rapidly.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1443900240382160896
Robots are the way to erode China's manufacturing advantage.
Just like everyone has a smartphone, eventually everyone will have a robot making stuff for them.
Just like everyone has a smartphone, eventually everyone will have a robot making stuff for them.
Automation and robots remove the principal-agent problem because programs have no minds of their own.
This removes the divergence between the capitalist and the worker, because management becomes automation.
amazon.com/Goal-Process-O…
This removes the divergence between the capitalist and the worker, because management becomes automation.
amazon.com/Goal-Process-O…
* Astro - coming way down in costs. The whole industry is exploding.
* Politico - the next postwar order is national stacks and neutral protocols.
Neutral protocols from crypto and national leaders in media, internet, etc. to avoid foreign censorship.
* Politico - the next postwar order is national stacks and neutral protocols.
Neutral protocols from crypto and national leaders in media, internet, etc. to avoid foreign censorship.
In 2010s, crypto and China were underrated.
In the 2020s, India and transhumanism are underrated
Btw, @balajis is putting his money where his mouth is.
He's partnered with OnDeck to invest in Indian founders:
beondeck.com/x/india
In the 2020s, India and transhumanism are underrated
Btw, @balajis is putting his money where his mouth is.
He's partnered with OnDeck to invest in Indian founders:
beondeck.com/x/india
I captured most ideas, but not *everything*.
The full episode with Tim and Balaji is something everyone should listen to:
The full episode with Tim and Balaji is something everyone should listen to:
If you enjoyed this thread, just RT the first tweet.
I'll be unbundling a lot more of Balaji in the next few weeks and months.
If you want the material, feel free to follow.
I'll be unbundling a lot more of Balaji in the next few weeks and months.
If you want the material, feel free to follow.
Incredibly grateful to @tferriss for giving @balajis a platform to share his thoughts.
And of course, thank you Balaji for sharing your fascinating insights freely.
And of course, thank you Balaji for sharing your fascinating insights freely.
He's also got fascinating talks on Youtube, like this one:
https://twitter.com/alexmoneton/status/1369884103424811010
If you're curious about what else Balaji's said on recent podcasts, you'll enjoy this summary of his appearance on the @theallinpod
https://twitter.com/alexmoneton/status/1441780636809719808
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