Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
modest proposal Profile picture
@modestproposal1
Dec 3, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
DB: “The equity selloff since last Friday remains modest so far, in keeping with regular 3-5% pullbacks that have occurred every 2-3 months historically. However, this was accompanied by the sharpest weekly decline in equity positioning since the collapse back in March 2020”

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with modest proposal

modest proposal Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @modestproposal1

modest proposal Profile picture
Jun 25
Barclay's:

"the street is modeling $167B in cumulative AI capex, which is enough to support over 12,000 ChatGPTs.

We think one of the big players may blink and cut back the capex plans, but not likely until we get well into 2025 or beyond" Image
"Based on these estimates, Google is assuming around 180T AI text queries (both input and output) and 15T AI image queries. This is a staggering figure, as there are around 11T web search queries per year right now worldwide. Stated differently, Google’s AI capex assumes a market that is 15x-20x larger than the web search market by 2026"Image
"Based on the 2026 consensus AI inference capex above, we estimate that the industry is assumed to produce upwards of 1 quadrillion AI queries in 2026. This would result in over 12,000 ChatGPT-sized products to justify this level of spending, illustrated below." Image
Read 5 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jun 28, 2023
Something that was noticeable, on each of MSFT peer review slides for Apple, Amazon and Google, they highlighted progress on proprietary chips



And then the Azure and Windows slides both have develop custom silicon chips as long term drivers. We knew that this was the case, but just interesting to see them highlight other co's successes and set goals for it.

"base of our stack, our custom silicon efforts will help us remain competitive.. Our efforts will be a mix of internal and partnership... ultimately, we will need to become a first-class provider of chipset designs, especially the most critical chips given our scale in the cloud"
Read 4 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jun 28, 2023
the TL,DR on the MSFT Board deck

Snowflake? Point player.
Twilio? Here we come.

(also interesting to note the play for open source devs and cloud natives)
Read 6 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jun 27, 2023
FTC request for comments on hyperscalers interesting. Can tell a lot by each participants responses.

ORCL/NET: whining about egress fees
GOOG: whining about MSFT/ORCL leveraging on prem biz to win cloud
MSFT: "very competitive market, even IBM"
AWS: history and tutorial on cloud
this is arguably more descriptive from AWS then anything they've said to investors about AI

Google complaining about MSFT and ORCL and then pitching Workspaces right in the doc. ABC guys, ABC.

Read 6 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jun 3, 2023
New collection of Messi vs Ronaldo charts. It’s pretty amazing how statistically similar they are. Ronaldo slightly more goals, but because of penalties. Messi more run of play goals. Messi far more assists, mostly after Ronaldo worried about injuries and stopped moving as much. ImageImage
Great chart contextualizing Messi and Ronaldo’s goal scoring Image
I would not have guessed Haaland is merely tracking Mbappe so far, given how prolific he seems. And Ronaldo was absolutely scorching early on. Shame he liked to eat. Image
Read 6 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
Jun 2, 2023
Look forward to someone doing the math but re AMZN wireless, are they gonna subsidize phones? Looking at Prime subs spend vs Non-prime, churn, and offering $0-10 lines, phone subsidy dramatically impacts net economics. If no subsidy, effective cost to consumers is much higher.
Other calcs

- likely at risk to churn Prime HHs have lower spend than avg Prime HHs

- need to model ratio of at risk Prime HHs retained vs not at risk choosing wireless/reducing NPV

- as acq tool for non Prime HHs, almost certainly have lower spend/LTVs than existing Prime HHs
Assuming monthly cost to carrier is around what cable co's seem to be paying VZ (even tho that was sweetheart deal), depending on ratio of at risk retained to non at risk who take wireless, can see the math working. But phone subsidies would really impact that calc.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(