This fall, US policy on Russia, Ukraine & Belarus appears to have firmed up. Biden's & Blinken's statements this week are far stronger than before. Why did this happen? As @AmbDanFried always points out: We can always trust Putin to overplay his hand & mobilize the West.
With more serious people confirmed to State & Treasury, these two departments have regained weight against the rather inexperienced (and seemingly appeasing) NSC.
Common sense is coming through in Washington:
The only sensible way to deal with Putin is to stand up against him.
The rather significant 5th round of US sanctions against Lukashenka made the US catch up with the EU on those sanctions.
Blinken has signalled very clearly that much more serious financial and personal sanctions on Russia have been prepared if Putin attacks Ukraine.
Just right!
After months, when few excellent Biden nominees have been confirmed by the Senate because of the obnoxious Ted Cruz, the administration seems to get an elementary backbone against Russia. It is too early to pass a firm judgment, but this looks much better than last April.

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More from @anders_aslund

3 Dec
"Foreign companies partnering on Nord Stream 2 spent more than $14.2 million since 2017"
"Nord Stream 2 has paid more than $4.5 million to Roberti Global, a lobbying firm run by Democratic donor and lobbyist Vincent Roberti."
"Since the start of 2020, the pipeline company has paid about $1.3 million to BGR Group for lobbying by Walker Roberts," a Republican.
"Five foreign companies partnering with Gazprom on the pipeline — Austria’s OMV AG, the Netherlands’ Shell International, France’s ENGIE, and Germany’s Wintershall and Uniper SE — hired lobbyists at McLarty Inbound to lobby the State Department and the National Security Council."
Read 4 tweets
2 Dec
David Kramer & @IlvesToomas have written an excellent article sharly rebuking @scharap's absurd idea to appease Putin by forcing Ukraine to give in to him. "handing Putin this sort of concession would reward his behavior and encourage more of it."
politico.com/news/magazine/…
"Demanding that Ukraine live up to commitments under Minsk without first demanding anything from Russia is both immoral and strategically ill-advised."
"Putin built up a threatening military presence on Ukraine’s border this past spring, and Biden responded by inviting the Russian leader to a summit. Putin seems eager to hold another summit"
Is the Biden NSC so daft so that they would reward Putin again? @JakeSullivan46
Read 6 tweets
1 Dec
Let us check what Putin really said at the annual VTB show:
"I would like to note that the economy is gradually recovering nonetheless. However, the rates of this recovery are in question and everyone knows why ..." Yes, your bad economic policy.
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
"I would like to ask the Government – I address my colleagues in the Government of the Russian Federation – to prepare within a week an updated plan of action to counter the risks of the spread of the new coronavirus strain."
A typical Putin Stalinist measure.
Putin: "a distinctive feature of the current situation is the high inflationary pressure" blaming "the extremely soft budgetary policy in most developed countries"
What about the Russian oil and gas squeeze? Why talk about the truth?
Read 8 tweets
28 Nov
The German government non-paper published by Axios @zacharybasu (congratulations!) is astounding (presuming it is correct), containing four lies on its first page.
documentcloud.org/documents/2111…
1. First German government lie: "NoS2 at present no threat to Ukraine as long as a reasonable gas transit is ensured." No reasonable gas transit through Ukraine can be assured when NS2 is brought into operation
2. Second lie: "Cooperation ensures that Russia does not use energy as a weapon."
Russia has useds energy as a weapon in Eastern Europe since the US-German statement was signed on July 21. Why do you lie so blatantly?
Read 7 tweets
27 Nov
Russia is dangerous because it is a declining power, but it has disproportionately strong military power. It has an obvious incentive to use this power before it loses more military heft because its economic stagnation caused by authoritarian kleptocracy & Western sanctions.
Remember that World War I was started by Austria-Hungary, a declining power, that declared war on Serbia just because of a terrorist killing. Pompous declining powers tend to become risk loving, just like investors close to bankruptcy.
The obvious response to a declining power is to deter it with convincing military force & political will. Right now, Ukraine is the battle front. The US, UK & Canada seem to have got the message, but are France & Germany fully aware as yet?
Read 9 tweets
26 Nov
Noteworthy from Zelensky's 4th press conference:
"No alliance negotiations with Kolomoisky already for two years" = did so earlier.
Defense of Yermak as usual, his deputy Tatarov suspected of corruption, and Ruslan Demchenko, 1st dep sec of National Defense & Security Council responsible for intelligence, that journalist Yuriy Butusov claims is Russian agent.
Very weak statements on the National Bank of Ukraine. Zelensky claimed the situation was bad before (when it was excellent), but it is still not good (after he has weakened it). No clear statement on governor Shevchenko.
Read 4 tweets

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