Somewhat optimistic takes on Omicron out of South Africa bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Omicron is spreading fast, but no confirmed deaths globally so far. Depending on how long it’s been spreading, that could be a *really* good sign google.com/amp/s/www.alja…
From the beginning we’ve seen COVID hospitalizations lag behind cases and deaths lag behind hospitalizations, so I’m cautiously optimistic, but so far everything still looks like a potential best case scenario
What we’ve seen so far with COVID is that a highly transmissible variant can out-compete the others and basically push them off the board. WHO reports that 99% of new cases are currently Delta. Could Omicron eradicate Delta and replace it with a largely tolerable disease? Maybe!
The flip side is that we’ve already bought our ticket for this ride, one way or another. This is the first variant I’m pretty confident I’ll be catching within the next year regardless of which precautions I take

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More from @webdevMason

3 Nov
I usually argue a bit with Aella on this stuff, but honestly in a culture with low expected commitment norms she’s right that monogamous defaults basically just lead to serial breakups to trade up or enjoy the perks of novelty
Hesitantly accepting a polyamorous lifestyle so your partner doesn’t “have to” leave you when he or she wants to cheat doesn’t seem like such a big win to me though
And frankly, having a menagerie of partners to meet all current and future “needs” inevitably trades off against the kind of investment that makes two-adult households so useful and inevitably causes instability, since no one can promise those sorts of needs won’t change
Read 5 tweets
18 Oct
To be clear, I think #3 is substantially worse for most people than #1, and #2 is generally benign only because it is almost impossible to maintain by force of will alone
Otherwise bright people believing that their goals/desires are more malleable and subject to rational reconsideration than they actually are probably generates more personal angst and interpersonal drama in these groups than any other single factor
There's been much talk of sexual and cult-style abuse in some of these communities recently, and frankly I think it's really important to consider the role that endorsed goal modification has played with regard to enabling abuse
Read 4 tweets
18 Oct
One of the weirdest ideas in Bay Area rationalist/adjacent circles is that you become someone like e.g. Elon Musk, hyper-productive and motivated, by introspecting a ton
Introspecting to the extent that you're actually treating it like a dedicated hobby or job might do something for you, but I see no reason to believe that it will make you substantially more productive or motivated to do things other than introspect even more
In other words, Elon Musk was pricing out illicit Russian rocket parts while you were doing shadow work with LSD
Read 9 tweets
14 Sep
Yesterday's @Rspodcast with @juliagalef & @KelseyTuoc on COVID-19 covered ivermectin, and included a pretty shocking final twist. Thread:
@Rspodcast @juliagalef @KelseyTuoc I trust @KelseyTuoc. I consider her a friend. She was one of the first journalists to suggest the concern about the pandemic was reasonable, and early on she wrote a thread admonishing herself for expressing more concern amongst friends than she was willing to publish publicly.
Reviewing the literature, Kelsey didn't find the evidence for ivermectin for critical condition COVID patients convincing at all, but found that it may have a small effect on early mitigation of disease severity, and said it looked most promising as prophylaxis (with caveats).
Read 17 tweets
8 Sep
You shouldn't have political opinions about medication, if "they did it first" is your defense you need to go ahead and try that out loud in the presence of an actual adult
Resist the politicization of everything by getting a fucking life
If you're trying to figure out if you should be happy for a public figure who recovered quickly from a serious illness or whether his not dying represents some kind of larger injustice, how about this, fuck off, turn off your devices, eat something you cooked for yourself
Read 6 tweets
8 Sep
*cocks shotgun at the dinner party table* it's 8 months
If she's watched you pee because she entered an unlocked bathroom and you said "what's up?" instead of having an apparent conniption fit you need to either wife that lady up or get out and let someone else be her man
None of this is trad, this is the pumpkin spice latte of dating takes. 8 months? You know after 8 months. You could slice that in half and the false positive/false negative rate is still well within tolerances. Stop being pussies
Read 5 tweets

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