there’s a sense in which Donald Trump’s administration was the best thing that could happen to the professional-managerial class that most loathed him. he drew all kinds of fire that otherwise would turn towards them. 1/
i found this particularly striking with respect to @jbarro, who five years ago, in the wake of Trump’s election, became a pretty full-throated defender of elites and deference to elite guidance. 3/
now he sees the problem as a Biden Administration to strongly influenced by “bureaucrats” and by a faction the three panelists identified as Hillary Clinton supporters, who have deflected Biden from his own wiser and more sound temperamental bias towards “normal”. 4/
it’s the neurotic upscale pinheads for whom “work-from-home” is no great hardship versus “normal”. that seemed the consensus view of the three panelists. it also wouldn’t be unfamiliar on fox news. 5/
i can’t imagine even of these three panelists coming to anything near a consensus like this under a Trump Administration. 6/
failures of public health would have been blamed much more on the dysfunction of the administration in corrupting or failing to interface well with public health experts, rather than on the experts corrupting the sound soft populism (“normal ppl”) of the administration. 7/
one way to put it is that a decade and a half of elite-led catastrophe had made populism very popular by 2016, but the emergence of so ridiculous and obnoxious a figurehead as Donald Trump gave experts an ironic last play at demanding deference with roughly half the country. 8/
but absent the shelter of Donald Trump, “professionals” have not succeeded in turning around public skepticism. the unraveling of the legitimacy of demands of deference has continued. 9/
even among people like @jbarro who, i think, half a decade ago would have been a full throated defender of elite legitimacy. 10/
(i’ll note i am not intending in this thread to throw stones at @jbarro@ebruenig@DouthatNYT, all three of whom i hold in very high regard. i broadly agree with the new consensus i attribute to them.) 11/
(but we’d better figure out a kind of normal-people populism more muscular than what Joe Biden has offered, more competent and less destructive of our ability to live together than what Donald Trump offered, ASAP.) /fin
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
So often people tell me that, sigh, the root of human suffering is coordination problems, that if only we could overcome our prisoners' dilemmas, what a better world we'd have of it. This misses a crucial point @VitalikButerin makes. 2/
The bones of nearly all functional social institutions are coordination problems. We rely upon them. No government wld be stable if incumbency + existing procedure weren't a hard-to-reroute Schelling point. Market competition depends on diverse producers failing to coordinate. 3/
@rplzzz nothing to apologize for! i don't think you'll be surprised i see it differently. if we're in a game with two sides, they are better characterized as "activists" and "everyone else" than left vs right or trumpist antivaxxers vs the rest of us or all of that. 1/
@rplzzz most of the unvaccinated are not diehard (they die too easily) political intransigents. yet most are either attached to minority communities or trumpish political communities. but most of the unvaccinated attached to trumpist political communities are not politically motivated 2/
@rplzzz intransigents, but when they are surveyed express a broad range of hesitancies not dissimilar from those of minority communities — prefer to wait and see, don't want to be guinea pig, not so worried about COVID, can't afford time off for side effects — etc. 3/
polio vaccination is often performed sequentially, first with a very safe inactivated virus vaccine, then with a riskier attenuated live virus. the first vaccination renders the second one much less dangerous. cochrane.org/CD011260/BEHAV… 1/
given the extraordinary transmissibility of delta and frequent reports of usually mild “breakthrough infections”, i wonder if the end game here is that we’ll be dragged involuntarily through an analogous protocol. 2/
the role of vaccination becomes not to prevent infection, but to ensure the infection that eventually (hopefully) deepens and completes our immunity is very mild. 3/
i agree very much with @jp_koning, fiat money is not a meme. but i don't think characterizing it as a conventional debt instrument quite works either. 1/ jpkoning.blogspot.com/2021/07/the-do…
suppose Bill Gates were to issue a perpetual, never redeemable, non-interest-bearing Gatescoin. Bill Gates' solvency, on its own, would tell us little about its value. 2/
owing to his solvency, Bill Gates would have the capacity to *give* such a coin value, say by committing to put a floor under it in the market, or by creating circumstances in which markets perceive such a commitment. 3/
this idea that an institutionally legal but morally stolen election (say legislatures in key states overrule voters, citing “irregularities”) will be prevented on the streets risks a first time as farce, second time as tragedy catastrophe. 1/
every stern denouncement of the 1/6 “insurrection”, every demand on Rachel Maddow that a tough, militarized response should have crushed the insurgents to spare our legislators their traumas, will be hauled out. 2/
provocateurs will intentionally seed chaos in order to force law enforcement and the military, who were and would be appropriately reticent to intervene in this kind of thing heavy handedly, to suppress “the riots”. 3/
so often we treat normative problems as positive problems. pre-ACA one might have done all kinds of modeling of the causes of health care uninsuredness, but the meaningful cause was absence of policy. (and it still is!) 1/
positive, empirical work is what most social scientists do. data is “receipts”, authority, publications. “surely we need to understand the problem if we are going to solve it.” 2/
but absent strong levers to anchor outcomes, social affairs can be endlessly complex, so noisy our models decide what we see, and modelers with divergent priors will never agree. 3/