1/ I really enjoyed @GavinSBaker interview with @GnDsville. Many probably already read it, but I wanted to keep some excerpts on my timeline.

Everything below is quotes copied from the interview.
2/ I think a lot of the success I’ve had since then is due to a super lucky decision I made as a very, very young man. And that decision was to not walk away from tech. That may sound like a strange thing to say today, but in 2002, all the great investing minds of my generation..
3/ walked away from tech because they were listening to Buffett.

investing is a game of cumulative knowledge and compounding advantage. And the only reason I didn't listen to Buffett was because of my personal interest in science fiction. That was lucky.
4/ How can you look at Airbnb without doing Marriott? Netflix without Disney? Amazon without Walmart? Today, you really need to look at them together.
5/ Everybody looks up to Warren Buffett, but almost no one does what he says he does. Warren Buffett has said he doesn't do due diligence. This was a statement about Precision Castparts which is one of his largest acquisitions ever. And everybody just ignored that comment, but it
6/ was a profound comment. And what he meant by it was that he didn't need to do due diligence. He had been reading every 10-K published by Precision Castparts for decades. He didn't sit down and do some 60-day deep dive. He didn't need to because he had been doing due diligence
7/ on Precision Castparts for decades.

That idea is similar to my philosophy. If I need to do a deep dive, we are not going to invest. You can think of my investible universe as the companies where I don't need to do deep dives because I have been doing due diligence on them for
8/ many years.

I am not a believer in having an investment thesis.

I believe in investment hypotheses. A hypothesis is a falsifiable
9/ A thought pattern of bad investors goes like, "Oh, the market is wrong. The market is dumb. The market is being irrational." Don't say that. The market just is,
and your job is to outperform the market.
10/ A big mentor of mine, Steve Wymer, said there are only two things in investing: numbers and excuses. And if you don't have the first, nobody cares about the second.
11/ Public market investing is so exciting to me because it's the most meritocratic competition in the world. Anybody can compete, so definitionally it is the most competitive.
End/ Link to the full interview: www8.gsb.columbia.edu/valueinvesting…

All my twitter threads: mbi-deepdives.com/twitter-thread…

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More from @borrowed_ideas

24 Nov
1/ Thread: $ADSK FY 3Q’22 Update

Just when I thought I escaped the recent carnage relatively unscathed, ADSK happened.

-15% AH, and -25% from ATH. Here are my notes.
2/ 3Q topline beat high end of guidance. Overall growth has accelerated a bit this quarter, but based on guidance, unfortunately the acceleration is unlikely to sustain.
3/ All the recent buzzwords here

"While demand is robust, we believe supply chain disruption and resulting inflationary pressures, a global labor shortage making it harder for our customers to staff new projects and the ebb and flow of COVID are contributing to the deceleration"
Read 14 tweets
22 Nov
1/ "Why are so many people selling subscriptions?"

Because the only cost is opportunity cost. Since some run newsletter as side hustle, there may not even be much opportunity cost for them.
2/ It’s extremely high FCF margin (~85-95%) business with potentially a very long runway (if you're really good) and you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to get paid.

So it’s no surprise people want to start one.
3/ "If you're any good, why not just invest and share your knowledge for free?"

Most people don’t have capital. 😊

I’m also not sure whether I’m any good.

You cannot put food on the table if you do it for free. Readers also cannot/won't get consistent output if it's free.
Read 10 tweets
14 Nov
1/ Bangladesh thread

I'll be staying in Bangladesh for the next 3-4 months and will use this thread from time to time to journal, and also let you see the country through this thread.

Mostly non-investing, but some investing related thoughts may appear as well.
2/ I took a walk around Bangladesh National Parliament yesterday. Beautiful architecture. More details here: archdaily.com/83071/ad-class…
3/ When I first moved to the US, I used to convert everything into Bangladeshi Taka and felt financially irresponsible even for $10 bland lunch. Today, my wife and I went to Star Kabab, one of our favorite places in Dhaka, and had sumptuous, full fledged delicious breakfast...
Read 5 tweets
14 Nov
1/7 Thread: Bad reason to own the big tech

There are perhaps many good reasons to own the big tech, but one consistently bad reason that I heard is in order to beat the index, you have to own big tech because they have such high weight to the index.
2/7 The "logic" goes like this: since big tech has such high weight in index, their performance drives the index. If you have no exposure to them and they did really well, it's very hard to beat the index.

This logic doesn't make much mathematical sense for most investors.
3/7 It may have some rational basis if you are managing hundreds of billions. Since vast majority of investors aren't managing such amount, this argument hardly applies to anyone.

Let me explain with a simple example.
Read 7 tweets
8 Nov
1/9 Thread: My Ottawa days

When I'll think about Ottawa in the future, I'll probably remember my afternoon walks. Whether it rained, snowed, or the sun smiled, I tried to walk for an hour everyday in the same route. Even after ten months, I didn’t quite get bored.
2/9 I would start from my place, walk for 5 mins to pass the Supreme Court, then watch the grandeur of the National Assembly, and take the side walk of Fairmont Chateau to continue to walk through the bridge and end up strolling by the Rideau canal.
3/9 Ottawa is serene and uneventful. It hardly surprises you.

As I am leaving tonight, I so wanted to hold onto my usual walk that I did two rounds yesterday (afternoon and evening).
Read 9 tweets
5 Nov
1/ Thread: $IAC/ $ANGI 3Q'21 Update

Probably not the best idea to post an earnings thread on Friday evening, but for the sake of consistency, let me post anyway.

Here are my notes.
2/ Dotdash

"Dotdash executed phenomenally well growing revenue double digits for 18 straight quarters while expanding margins and generally outpacing the growth of its competitors"

"Dotdash content has a relevant shelf life measured not in days or hours, but months or years."
3/ "of Dotdash’s top 25 advertisers in 2019, all
have spent in 2020 nearly all have spent in 2021 and their spend has grown 29%."

Not much of an impact of IDFA.

"Those advertisements perform cookie or not"
Read 15 tweets

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