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Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
@lugaricano
Dec 5, 2021 • 13 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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La Comisión Europea ha aprobado el viernes un desembolso de 10.000 millones de euros, correspondientes al primer tramo del plan de recuperación.

¿Quiere decir esto que el Gobierno está haciendo reformas y va a gastar bien el dinero asignado? No, en absoluto.

Abro HILO 1/13
"La Comisión Europea ha puesto muy buena nota al plan de España".

Sí, y a todos los demás. De los 22 planes aprobados, 19 han recibido exactamente la misma nota. España solo ha sacado más nota que Bélgica, Chequia y Estonia. Es un aprobado general, no un sobresaliente. 2/13
¿Cuales son los países a los que no le han aprobado todavía el plan?

-Holanda, Suecia y Bulgaria porque llevan varios meses sin Gobierno.

-Polonia y Hungría porque no respetan el Estado de Derecho. La Comisión va a gastar todo su capital político en estos dos países. 3/13
Después de la última crisis, la Comisión Europea se ha cansado de ser la mala de la película. Por eso, salvo en el caso de Polonia y Hungría, el dinero llegará sin muchas fricciones a los Estados miembros. La condiciones que ha puesto la Comisión son de mínimos. 4/13
No podemos esperar a que Europa resuelva siempre nuestros problemas, España recibirá el dinero para gastarlo en digital, verde y hacer reformas. Pero que las inversiones y las reformas sirvan para algo es cosa de cada país.

Entonces, ¿qué tal lo está haciendo el Gobierno? 5/13
Las reformas no van a transformar la economía española. De hecho, en algunos casos pueden dejarla peor.

Lo que conocemos de la reforma de las pensiones es un despropósito que deja un agujero de 42.000 millones de euros. Lo explico aquí 👇6/13
La reforma laboral todavía no se ha dado conocer, pero las filtraciones muestran que el Gobierno está trabajando con los sindicatos para que el mercado laboral sea más rígido. Es una pésima idea en un país con 3 millones de parados. 👇7/13
Hay otras reformas de las que se ha hablado menos, pero que son igual de equivocadas. La reforma universitaria que ha propuesto Castells se hace para decir a Europa que hemos reformado las universidades, pero no sirve para nada 👇 8/13
El Gobierno ha elegido fingir reformas para recibir los fondos en vez de resolver los problemas estructurales de la economía española.

Pensaréis "por lo menos vamos a recibir el dinero". Vamos a ver cómo se está ejecutando 👇 9/13
De los 24.000 millones que el Gobierno ha metido en los presupuestos de 2021 solo hay convocatorias, ya cerradas o abiertas, para 7.800 millones. Estamos a 5 de diciembre. 10/13
Entre las convocatorias que ya se han cerrado está 1 millón de euros ‘para el fomento de la movilidad internacional de autores literarios’.

Parece que para el Gobierno era prioritario pagarle viajes de 10.000€ a 100 escritores con fondos europeos... es lamentable. 11/13
How it started (mal plan de recuperación) / how it's going (la única de las grandes economías europeas muy por detrás de su nivel de actividad anterior a la pandemia). 12/13
Hace más de un año pedí una tregua política para pactar el plan, pero me ignoraron. En todas las críticas que hago doy propuestas alternativas, y lo seguiré haciendo porque los españoles se merecen mucho más que las ocurrencias de este Gobierno. 13/13

elpais.com/espana/2020-06…

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More from @lugaricano

Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 13
Europe had an effective tool for climate action: the Emissions Trading System (ETS). Instead of expanding this market-based solution, we've built a byzantine regulatory framework that goes far beyond emissions reduction.
THREAD on my post today on the "Compliance Doom Loop"
1/10 Image
Costs are staggering: Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) requires 42,000 companies report 1,052 data points (783 mandatory). Cost: €150K-1M per company annually.
CSRD compliance costs of 12.5% of investment of mid sized firms (EIB).

2/ siliconcontinent.com/p/the-complian…Image
Danish firms face 63% more regulations in 2023 vs 2001. Chemical industry SME compliance costs nearly doubled: €332.5K (2014) to €577K (2023). Add GDPR: €500K-10M more.
3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 6
Wake-up Europe! Enough of the de-growth agenda!
There is no strategic autonomy while we spend our every waking hour erecting barriers to growth!
THREAD on the post today in Silicon Continent by @pietergaricano.
1/8
Today's Trump victory makes Europe's strategic autonomy urgent. But Europe has lived beyond its means through "luxury rules" - virtuous but growth-hurting policies that were only possible due to US protection and innovation.
2/
 siliconcontinent.com/p/the-end-of-l…
Luxury rules are laws that make our privileged societies feel good but harm competitiveness. Like Germany closing nuclear plants in 2011, increasing reliance on imported gas, or the EU's GDPR hurting tech innovation.
3/
Read 8 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 30
The EU AI Act seems designed to allow AI only for routine tasks while hindering its use in high-level problem-solving.

This will endanger European AI startups and significantly damage EU productivity.

THREAD on our post today in Silicon Continent.
1/9 Image
An AI bank teller in the EU would need two humans to oversee it. A startup building an AI tutor faces countless hurdles before launching. The is the reality under the EU AI Act—a well-meaning but flawed attempt to regulate AI.
2/
 siliconcontinent.com/p/the-strange-…
The Act classifies AI systems by risk: unacceptable, high, limited, and minimal. Unacceptable systems, like social scoring or workplace emotion recognition, are banned.
Fines can reach €15 million or 3% of global revenue.
3/
Read 9 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 16
We keep hearing how solving Europe’s innovation stagnation requires more public spending. But the numbers show otherwise: the EU falls behind in private R&D investment, not public.
A thread based on this week’s blog.
1/10
siliconcontinent.com/p/the-problem-…Image
As a share of GDP, Europe spends 0.74% on public sector R&D, compared to the U.S. 0.69%.

The actual R&D gap is in private sector spending, where Europe spends 1.3% of GDP compared to the United States' 2.4%!
That gap is worth 341 billion in R&D spending in 2021. /2
Take the story of DeepMind. It is a contemporary of EU's AI flagship, the Human Brain Project, launched in 2013 with €600M in public funding, aimed to simulate a human brain in 10 years. It's now widely regarded as a failure, while DeepMind leads in AI. /3
Read 10 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 19
New data shows that the EU Commission has blown the chance the NextGen gave it to get the EU on a growth path. Two key elements.
1. Pensions in Spain.
2. Reforms in italy.

The new data is from the ageing report of the EU Commission on the budgetary impact of the pension "reforms"- more below

( h/t @rdomenechv @fernandosols with official data from the Spanish government.)

Small THREAD (1/7)economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/2…
The EU NextGen plans gave an unprecedented and powerful stick to the EU Commission to demand reforms and investments in exchange of money. Never has the Commission had the chance to get states to get some reforms going.

In Spain, the EU Commission has been complicit (in spite of numerous warnings) in setting Spain on an unsustainable Fiscal path
(2/7)
Under cover (!!!) of the "reforms" required by the European NextGen plan, the Spanish government abrogated the 2012 reforms of pensions (the single reform done by the Rajoy government), based on an automatic adjustment mechanism, without putting anything else meaningful in place.

The cost is 3.3 points of GDP higher than before the reform.

(3)Image
Read 7 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 15
Some reactions to the (wonderful) Levitt interview.
1) On the @uchicago PhD program and the atmosphere in the department in the 90s (toxic?).
2) On Price Theory and its future at @uchicago and beyond.
3) On the "technification" of economics and the blurring of the "theory-empirics" boundaries.
(link to interview: )
(Thread)
1/npodcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ste…
1) On the Econ PhD Program. I went in 1992, graduated in 1998. I did not feel the ambiance was toxic. It was tough work, almost brutal, not toxic. I was given a chance I would not have gotten elsewhere. There was nothing personal about the standards. We were getting trained by the best and that was intellectually invaluable -we got the chance of a lifetime. Here are some profs of my first two years (note 5 nobels):
Macro: Sargent, Lucas, Cochrane, Woodford, Stokey, Townsend.
Micro: Becker, Rosen, Murphy, Scheinkman
Metrics: Hansen, Heckman, Zellner.
It was extremely hard, by far the hardest thing I have ever done. But it should be hard. They were trying to put a bunch of kids at the frontier of knowledge.
It was not for everyone, but we knew what we were getting into. My admired supervisor, Sherwin Rosen, then department chair, gave us a "superstar" (he wrote THE paper after all) talk on the first day. He told us half of us would fail in the first year Core (and exit with an MA, is that so bad?), half of the rest would not make the prelims. Of the 50 we were there, maybe 10 would finish the PhD, most of those would never get any citation.
And yet we persisted. We wanted to learn, and were grateful for the hance.
2/n
2) On Price Theory. What is the Chicago Price Theory style? Best thing I can recommend is to experience it yourself by listening to the playlist of Kevin Murphy's classes. . He is an amazing teacher, and makes economics come alive.
Is it true as Levitt says, quoting Mulligan to Friedman, that this style of Micro lost in the market place of ideas?
3/nyoutube.com/@chicagopricet…
Read 10 tweets

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