Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Dec 5, 2021 13 tweets 4 min read Read on X
La Comisión Europea ha aprobado el viernes un desembolso de 10.000 millones de euros, correspondientes al primer tramo del plan de recuperación.

¿Quiere decir esto que el Gobierno está haciendo reformas y va a gastar bien el dinero asignado? No, en absoluto.

Abro HILO 1/13
"La Comisión Europea ha puesto muy buena nota al plan de España".

Sí, y a todos los demás. De los 22 planes aprobados, 19 han recibido exactamente la misma nota. España solo ha sacado más nota que Bélgica, Chequia y Estonia. Es un aprobado general, no un sobresaliente. 2/13
¿Cuales son los países a los que no le han aprobado todavía el plan?

-Holanda, Suecia y Bulgaria porque llevan varios meses sin Gobierno.

-Polonia y Hungría porque no respetan el Estado de Derecho. La Comisión va a gastar todo su capital político en estos dos países. 3/13
Después de la última crisis, la Comisión Europea se ha cansado de ser la mala de la película. Por eso, salvo en el caso de Polonia y Hungría, el dinero llegará sin muchas fricciones a los Estados miembros. La condiciones que ha puesto la Comisión son de mínimos. 4/13
No podemos esperar a que Europa resuelva siempre nuestros problemas, España recibirá el dinero para gastarlo en digital, verde y hacer reformas. Pero que las inversiones y las reformas sirvan para algo es cosa de cada país.

Entonces, ¿qué tal lo está haciendo el Gobierno? 5/13
Las reformas no van a transformar la economía española. De hecho, en algunos casos pueden dejarla peor.

Lo que conocemos de la reforma de las pensiones es un despropósito que deja un agujero de 42.000 millones de euros. Lo explico aquí 👇6/13
La reforma laboral todavía no se ha dado conocer, pero las filtraciones muestran que el Gobierno está trabajando con los sindicatos para que el mercado laboral sea más rígido. Es una pésima idea en un país con 3 millones de parados. 👇7/13
Hay otras reformas de las que se ha hablado menos, pero que son igual de equivocadas. La reforma universitaria que ha propuesto Castells se hace para decir a Europa que hemos reformado las universidades, pero no sirve para nada 👇 8/13
El Gobierno ha elegido fingir reformas para recibir los fondos en vez de resolver los problemas estructurales de la economía española.

Pensaréis "por lo menos vamos a recibir el dinero". Vamos a ver cómo se está ejecutando 👇 9/13
De los 24.000 millones que el Gobierno ha metido en los presupuestos de 2021 solo hay convocatorias, ya cerradas o abiertas, para 7.800 millones. Estamos a 5 de diciembre. 10/13
Entre las convocatorias que ya se han cerrado está 1 millón de euros ‘para el fomento de la movilidad internacional de autores literarios’.

Parece que para el Gobierno era prioritario pagarle viajes de 10.000€ a 100 escritores con fondos europeos... es lamentable. 11/13
How it started (mal plan de recuperación) / how it's going (la única de las grandes economías europeas muy por detrás de su nivel de actividad anterior a la pandemia). 12/13
Hace más de un año pedí una tregua política para pactar el plan, pero me ignoraron. En todas las críticas que hago doy propuestas alternativas, y lo seguiré haciendo porque los españoles se merecen mucho más que las ocurrencias de este Gobierno. 13/13

elpais.com/espana/2020-06…

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More from @lugaricano

Sep 18
Live from Palo Alto! "The Economics of Transformative AI" @nberpubs workshop. I will be trying to live tweet (mega jet lagged--flew from HKG--, so I really hope I can keep it up) the papers presented. Watch this thread
Here is the fantastic line up
nber.org/conferences/ec…
Intro talk from Agrawal, Korinec and Brynjolfsson. The assignment: lets not discuss if transformative AI will or not happen. Instead, lets assume it is going going to happen and draw the consequences for makets and the economy. Image
Paper 1: Agrawal–Goldfarb–Gans, "Genius on Demand: The Value of Transformative AI"
Q: If “genius” is on tap (Einstein level intelligence), what is this worth—and how does it get allocated ?
A: Paper argues in the short run, human geniuses specialise in questions that are furthest from existing knowledge, where their comparative advantage over AI is greatest. In the long run, routine workers may stay at the edges and eventually be completely displaced as AI efficiency approaches human genius efficiency.
Read 21 tweets
Sep 10
There is widespread sense AI adoption is slowing down and productivity gains are hard to get. Is it true? Why? I just attended the inaugural conference of the Center for AI, Management and Organizations at Hong Kong University. A thread on insights.
1/17 Image
A general answer before going deep in: firm adoption of GenAI is widespread, but it is shallow, and barely profitable. An often repeated point was that only a small minority of firms are seeing P&L impact. Data from a Deloitte&CAMO survey of 109 top executives: 2/17 Image
Executives say they overestimated expected financial returns from AI implementation.
At launch, many expected strong ROI but outcomes disappointed. 45% reported returns below expectations; only 10% exceeded them.
3/17 Image
Read 18 tweets
Aug 29
1/10 Good news on AI could be bad news for Europe's debt.
A boom in AI-driven productivity could end decades of slow growth. But for Europe, this silver lining may hide a fiscal storm cloud. Here’s why. Image
2/10
The key is the global real interest rate, r*. Think of it as the price that clears the world's market for assets. For 70+ years, high demand for assets from savers and slowing productivity has kept r* low. This is about to reverse.
siliconcontinent.com/p/r-without-g
3/10
AI changes the game.
It boosts the supply of assets (higher profits, huge data center investments) and lowers demand (richer future generations save less).
More supply + less demand = lower asset prices, which means higher interest rates. Image
Read 10 tweets
Jul 10
Let's not kid ourselves: Europe can't compete on compute.
- Energy costs 2-3x more than in US.
- Permitting makes building anything a nightmare.
- We lack tech ecosystem.
Catching up in model-building is delusional.

An alternative: Europe can be a smart second mover.

🧵1/10 Image
Nobody knows who will capture the value created by AI: could be chips (NVIDIA), manufacturing (TSMC/ASML), models (OpenAI), or implementation layer.

Our proposal is to tilt the playing field towards this last layer.
2/10
siliconcontinent.substack.com/p/the-smart-se…
What we do have:
- 450 million consumers in a (semi-)unified market.
- Top companies in manufacturing, pharma, automotive. - A highly educated workforce.

The question isn't how to build models - it's how to ensure the value stays at the implementation stage. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Jun 28
1/@EpochAIResearch doubles down on preiction AI will drive 20%+ annual GDP growth. Economists remain skeptical.
This is the defining debate of today: AI builders see infinite prosperity ahead. Economists see the same limits that constrained every technological revolution.🧵 1/13 Image
2/The economists' core insight, which Epoch misses, is that progress works itself out of a job.
The more successful a technology becomes, the less it matters economically. Revolutionary technologies shrink their own importance precisely through their success. Larry Summers: Image
3/Consider history's greatest productivity miracle: artificial light.
In 1800, one hour of reading light cost more than a day's wages. By the 1990s, we produced the same light using 1/3,000th the energy. The price fell 40,000x. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 19
1/10 🧵 @masuch_klaus have written a post arguing the late 2010s QE was a big mistake. The debate sounds technical--central banks sold is as technical fine-tuning. But it's massive fiscal policy by unelected officials, creating perverse incentives and wealth transfers. Image
2/10 Fiscal consequences: QE transforms government debt structure. When central banks buy long-term bonds and pay with overnight reserves, they swap fixed-rate debt for floating-rate debt. The state suddenly owes money at today's rates, not yesterday's.siliconcontinent.com/p/the-hidden-c…
3/10 Example: Government issues €100bn in 10-year bonds at 1%. Central bank buys them, creates overnight reserves. When rates hit 3%, annual costs triple from €1bn to €3bn. ECB's €5 trillion portfolio lost ~€650bn when rates rose. Taxpayers absorbed the duration risk.
Read 10 tweets

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