Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Dec 5, 2021 13 tweets 4 min read Read on X
La Comisión Europea ha aprobado el viernes un desembolso de 10.000 millones de euros, correspondientes al primer tramo del plan de recuperación.

¿Quiere decir esto que el Gobierno está haciendo reformas y va a gastar bien el dinero asignado? No, en absoluto.

Abro HILO 1/13
"La Comisión Europea ha puesto muy buena nota al plan de España".

Sí, y a todos los demás. De los 22 planes aprobados, 19 han recibido exactamente la misma nota. España solo ha sacado más nota que Bélgica, Chequia y Estonia. Es un aprobado general, no un sobresaliente. 2/13
¿Cuales son los países a los que no le han aprobado todavía el plan?

-Holanda, Suecia y Bulgaria porque llevan varios meses sin Gobierno.

-Polonia y Hungría porque no respetan el Estado de Derecho. La Comisión va a gastar todo su capital político en estos dos países. 3/13
Después de la última crisis, la Comisión Europea se ha cansado de ser la mala de la película. Por eso, salvo en el caso de Polonia y Hungría, el dinero llegará sin muchas fricciones a los Estados miembros. La condiciones que ha puesto la Comisión son de mínimos. 4/13
No podemos esperar a que Europa resuelva siempre nuestros problemas, España recibirá el dinero para gastarlo en digital, verde y hacer reformas. Pero que las inversiones y las reformas sirvan para algo es cosa de cada país.

Entonces, ¿qué tal lo está haciendo el Gobierno? 5/13
Las reformas no van a transformar la economía española. De hecho, en algunos casos pueden dejarla peor.

Lo que conocemos de la reforma de las pensiones es un despropósito que deja un agujero de 42.000 millones de euros. Lo explico aquí 👇6/13
La reforma laboral todavía no se ha dado conocer, pero las filtraciones muestran que el Gobierno está trabajando con los sindicatos para que el mercado laboral sea más rígido. Es una pésima idea en un país con 3 millones de parados. 👇7/13
Hay otras reformas de las que se ha hablado menos, pero que son igual de equivocadas. La reforma universitaria que ha propuesto Castells se hace para decir a Europa que hemos reformado las universidades, pero no sirve para nada 👇 8/13
El Gobierno ha elegido fingir reformas para recibir los fondos en vez de resolver los problemas estructurales de la economía española.

Pensaréis "por lo menos vamos a recibir el dinero". Vamos a ver cómo se está ejecutando 👇 9/13
De los 24.000 millones que el Gobierno ha metido en los presupuestos de 2021 solo hay convocatorias, ya cerradas o abiertas, para 7.800 millones. Estamos a 5 de diciembre. 10/13
Entre las convocatorias que ya se han cerrado está 1 millón de euros ‘para el fomento de la movilidad internacional de autores literarios’.

Parece que para el Gobierno era prioritario pagarle viajes de 10.000€ a 100 escritores con fondos europeos... es lamentable. 11/13
How it started (mal plan de recuperación) / how it's going (la única de las grandes economías europeas muy por detrás de su nivel de actividad anterior a la pandemia). 12/13
Hace más de un año pedí una tregua política para pactar el plan, pero me ignoraron. En todas las críticas que hago doy propuestas alternativas, y lo seguiré haciendo porque los españoles se merecen mucho más que las ocurrencias de este Gobierno. 13/13

elpais.com/espana/2020-06…

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More from @lugaricano

Jul 10
Let's not kid ourselves: Europe can't compete on compute.
- Energy costs 2-3x more than in US.
- Permitting makes building anything a nightmare.
- We lack tech ecosystem.
Catching up in model-building is delusional.

An alternative: Europe can be a smart second mover.

🧵1/10 Image
Nobody knows who will capture the value created by AI: could be chips (NVIDIA), manufacturing (TSMC/ASML), models (OpenAI), or implementation layer.

Our proposal is to tilt the playing field towards this last layer.
2/10
siliconcontinent.substack.com/p/the-smart-se…
What we do have:
- 450 million consumers in a (semi-)unified market.
- Top companies in manufacturing, pharma, automotive. - A highly educated workforce.

The question isn't how to build models - it's how to ensure the value stays at the implementation stage. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
Jun 28
1/@EpochAIResearch doubles down on preiction AI will drive 20%+ annual GDP growth. Economists remain skeptical.
This is the defining debate of today: AI builders see infinite prosperity ahead. Economists see the same limits that constrained every technological revolution.🧵 1/13 Image
2/The economists' core insight, which Epoch misses, is that progress works itself out of a job.
The more successful a technology becomes, the less it matters economically. Revolutionary technologies shrink their own importance precisely through their success. Larry Summers: Image
3/Consider history's greatest productivity miracle: artificial light.
In 1800, one hour of reading light cost more than a day's wages. By the 1990s, we produced the same light using 1/3,000th the energy. The price fell 40,000x. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 19
1/10 🧵 @masuch_klaus have written a post arguing the late 2010s QE was a big mistake. The debate sounds technical--central banks sold is as technical fine-tuning. But it's massive fiscal policy by unelected officials, creating perverse incentives and wealth transfers. Image
2/10 Fiscal consequences: QE transforms government debt structure. When central banks buy long-term bonds and pay with overnight reserves, they swap fixed-rate debt for floating-rate debt. The state suddenly owes money at today's rates, not yesterday's.siliconcontinent.com/p/the-hidden-c…
3/10 Example: Government issues €100bn in 10-year bonds at 1%. Central bank buys them, creates overnight reserves. When rates hit 3%, annual costs triple from €1bn to €3bn. ECB's €5 trillion portfolio lost ~€650bn when rates rose. Taxpayers absorbed the duration risk.
Read 10 tweets
May 29
Germany's powerful Sparkassen (359 local savings banks with €2.5 trillion in assets) are a key obstacle to completing the banking union (together with the Italian government). Why?
THREAD on my Silicon Continent post 1/11 Image
Without a banking union, the sovereign-bank doom loop threatens to return to the EU.
This is where a crisis in a country's government and its banks can dangerously feed each other, a risk now higher with rising interest rates.
Link to post:

2/12siliconcontinent.com/p/the-return-o…
The Sparkassen are deeply tied to local German politics. County governments appoint their board members and committee chairs.

According to @nicolas_veron and Markgraf @Bruegel_org 82 percent of Sparkassen board chairs are elected officials.
3/12 Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 30
THREAD: It is clear that something has gone horribly wrong in European energy policy. How did this happen? Why did the entire political center go along with this?
My views on the anatomy of an error from our post today. 1/11🧵 Image
Like many, I assumed grid operators, utilities, and industry would intervene if truly catastrophic policies were being implemented. We trusted that leaders like Angela Merkel and Mark Rutte would get sound advice and make sensible decisions. 2/
siliconcontinent.com/p/anatomy-of-a…
Why did politics fail?
My hypothesis: climate action is politically difficult. Its benefits are slow and global. Voters know they can free-ride, while immediate costs are clear and the worst climate impacts fall on future generations. Selling sacrifice is hard. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Feb 16
This Draghi piece is a quiet indictment on the @EUCommission's failrue on its core Treaty mandate: "establishing the internal market" & ensuring "free movement of goods, persons, services and capital."
A thread with the facts adn saying the quiet part out loud
1/ Image
PRICES:
IMF shows EU internal barriers =
- 45% tariff on manufacturing,
- 110% on services.

As services become more important in the economy, barriers on service trade create an even bigger drag on growth.

2/
ft.com/content/13a830…
PRICES:
Trade costs in services have fallen more for non-EU imports (16%) than within the EU (11%) since mid-1990s.

This shouldn't happen in a truly integrated market.
3/
Read 9 tweets

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